By Chris Dell
To view the full spreadsheet of updated round to round data for our Strokes Gained Ratings, click here
Primer/Intro: Last fall, I outlined how we can look for strong edges after Round 1 of a given PGA tournament using strokes gained statistics, combined with a little math. Using our "Strokes Gained Ratings" (SGR) formula, we will determine our buys and fades for head-to-head matchup bets and DFS strategy from round to round. Depending on certain courses we might look at some metrics more than others as well, but the primary focus will be on strokes gained putting, strokes gained approach and strokes gained off the tee. We will also refer below to "strokes gained ball striking," which is a combination of approach and off the tee numbers. Now let's dive into how exactly we'll use these numbers below.
In order to determine our buys and fades, we will simply subtract a golfer's strokes gained putting numbers from his strokes gained approach, off the tee and/or ball striking numbers. The premise here is that putting is often unpredictable and will regress more from round to round, whereas approach and tee to green (which combined equals "ball striking") are the "sticky" stats which indicate the golfers who are/aren't playing well in the moment. Our "buy" golfers will be those with a strokes gained rating of "+3" or higher, while our "fade" golfers will be those with a strokes gained rating of "-3" or lower. If two buys are facing each other in a head to head matchup bet, then we will pass, however we especially want to look for head to head opportunities where a "buy" is facing off directly with a "fade," and so on and so forth.
Strokes Gained is broken down into four categories, and depending on a certain course/tournament, we will look to target certain stats specifically to determine out H2H, round to round matchup prop bets.
Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
Strokes Gained: Putting
Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (which is Off-the-Tee + Approach)
Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (which is Ball-Striking + Around-the-Green)
Please Note: The recommended unit sizes below can be easily calculated if you base your "unit size" on either $10 or $100 or $1,000 depending on your bankroll. To figure how much you should put down per bet, just take your typical unit size and then apply the recommendation listed below. For example, if your typical unit size is $100 per best bet, then you should be betting either $5 or $10 on the outright winners and first round leaders listed below. A "0.25 unit" bet would be $25. A "0.5 unit" bet would be $50 and a "0.75 unit" bet would be $75, and so on and so forth. You'll note for each weekend that I typically have at least 75-80% or more of my action on either tournament head to head matchup bets (72 holes) or round by round head to head matchup bets (18 holes). These bets provide us with two-way action (the ability to bet on either side) and the most EV we can get out of our strokes gained ratings model. The difference in unit sizes within our head to head bets will vary depending on how strong a buy/fade or how strong a matchup rating is between two golfers. We'll dive more into the specifics this in future articles as I further explain how to best utilize our strokes gained ratings model for actionable wagers. For now we'll keep things as simple as possible here and list everything by bet type and in order of recommended unit sizes.
If “GOLFER A” has a +5.5 SGR score after round 1 and is facing “GOLFER B” who has -5.5 score after round 1, then this round 2 head to head matchup will rate as a +11 and likely rank as one of best bets we have on the board. Typically we look for matchups that rate as a +4.5 or higher AND involve either one buy or one fade from round to round. If a matchup rates as +4.5 and involves two buys or two fades, we likely will pass on this matchup or make it a smaller bet than normal. If a buy is facing a fade directly, AND/OR if a matchup has a rating of +9 or higher, this will rate strongly as a best bet and we will make it a larger bet than normal. For more on this strategy, just read this article: To view my strokes gained ratings model from The Honda Classic, which includes RD4 data/”All Rounds” data, click here to view the spreadsheet:
The lists below use strokes gained/shotlink data from the RBC Heritage and they exclude the following golfers: those who qualify as a buy in at least one metric but also have a teammate in their pairing who qualifies as a fade in at least one metric. We are also excluding the opposite of this, for example: “golfer X” qualifies as a fade in at least one metric and his teammate “golfer y” qualifies as a buy in at least one metric. Golfers names who are bolded signify those who qualify as either a buy or a fade in MULTIPLE metrics. For our outright winner card we are also excluding golfer pairings who have 10:1 or shorter odds to win. That means that for this weekend we are eliminating Morikawa/Hovland, Cantlay/Xander and Smith/Leishman from our opening outright winner card. We could still add a live/in-tourney play on them to win outright, but starting on Thursday we will not have those tickets. We will still be betting other derivatives on these pairings, however, since they all three show up as buys using shotlink data from the week prior. Our goal with these initial buys/fades for this format specifically is to show “true buy pairings” and “true fade pairings” and take into account our variance essentially being doubled with team scoring:
SG APP BUYS (RDS 1-4 DATA FROM RBC):
Cantlay +2.16
Varner +1.99
Morikawa +1.77
Smith +1.75 (CUT)
NeSmith +1.43
Svensson +1.28
Kirk +1.05 (CUT)
SG APP BUYS (RD4 DATA FROM RBC):
Morikawa +3.46
Cantlay +3.12
Todd +2.41
NeSmith +2.41
Horschel +1.26
Hadwin +1.15
SG OTT BUYS (RDS 1-4 DATA FROM RBC):
Kirk +1.50 (CUT)
Im +1.16
SG OTT BUYS (RD4 DATA FROM RBC):
Horschel +1.94
Im +1.52
Long +0.98
ZURICH PAIRING TOP BUYS:
- Svensson/Hadwin
- Kirk/Todd
- Cantlay/Xander
- Morikawa/Hovland
- NeSmith/T. Moore
- Varner/Bubba
- Smith/Leishman
- Im/An
- Horschel/Burns
- Long/Hoag
SG APP FADES (RDS 1-4 DATA FROM RBC):
D. Riley -3.72 (CUT)
Brehm -3.49 (CUT)
Trainer -3.41 (CUT)
Hagy -3.29 (CUT)
Byrd -2.12
Hossler -1.83 (CUT)
Snedeker -1.77 (CUT)
Hoffman -1.23 (CUT)
Hadley -1.21 (CUT)
Martin -1.14
SG APP FADES (RD4 DATA FROM RBC):
Theegala -4.23
Martin -2.39
McCarthy -1.99
Schwartzel -1.76
Ramey -1.25
SG OTT FADES (RDS 1-4 DATA FROM RBC):
Byrd -1.45
Watney -1.38 (CUT)
Hossler -1.28 (CUT)
Trainer -1.27 (CUT)
D. Riley -1.13 (CUT)
Brehm -1.11 (CUT)
Bryan -1.06
SG OTT FADES (RD4 DATA FROM RBC):
Ramey -3.25
Theegala -1.61
Martin -1.34
Noren -1.05
Streb -1.03
ZURICH PAIRING TOP FADES:
- Byrd/Hadley
- Hossler/Theegala
- Hoffman/Watney
- Martin/Van Pelt
- Ramey/Creel
- D. Riley/Zalatoris
- Trainer/Knous
- Brehm/Hubbard
Round 1 Leader Props:
(0.15) Morikawa/Hovland @ FD 18:1
(0.10) Cantlay/Xander @ FD 18:1
(0.10) NeSmith/T. Moore @ MB 66:1
(0.10) Todd/Kirk @ DK 45:1
(0.10) Hadwin/Svensson @ DK 55:1
(0.10) Im/An @ DK 40:1
(0.10) Long/Hoag @ FD 90:1
= 0.75 Units
Tournament Finish Props (0.25 Units Each Unless Noted):
(0.5) Cantlay/Xander T10 @ Bet365 -110
(0.5) Morikawa/Hovland T10 @ Bet365 -110
(0.5) NeSmith/T. Moore T30 @ Bet365 -105
(0.5) Im/An T20 @ DK +140
Smith/Leishman T10 @ DK +110
Varner/Bubba T20 @ DK -110
Kirk/Todd T20 @ BO +130
Svensson/Hadwin T20 @ DK +170
= 3 Units
Make/Miss Cut (0.25 Units Each):
Kirk/Todd MAKE @ DK -120
Im/An MAKE @ DK -135
Varner/Bubba MAKE @ DK -155
Riley/Zalatoris MISS @ DK +100
= 1 Unit
Tournament Matchups
(1 Unit) NeSmith/Moore > Hossler/Theegala @ BO -129
(0.75) Im/An > Riley/Zalatoris @ BO -115
(0.50) Bello/Grillo > Hoffman/Watney @ BO -115
= 2.25 Units
Outright Winners
(0.35) Varner/Bubba @ FD 28:1
(0.25) Im/An @ DK 40:1
(0.20) Kirk/Todd @ DK 50:1
(0.15) Svensson/Hadwin @ DK 65:1
(0.05) NeSmith/T. Moore @ BO 100:1
= 1 Unit
Full Opening Card Breakdown:
- 3 Tournament Matchups = 2.25 Units
- 4 Make/Miss Cut Props = 1 Unit
- 5 Outright Winner Bets = 1 Unit
- 7 First Round Leader Bets = 0.75 Units
- 8 Tournament Finish Props = 3 Units
- Total = 8 Units
Strokes Gained Ratings Key/Abbreviations
*Asterisk(s) indicates the number of statistical thresholds a golfer qualifies as a "buy" or "fade"
Strokes Gained Putting
Strokes Gained Ball Striking
Strokes Gained Tee To Green
Strokes Gained Gained Net Rating - Ball Striking
Strokes Gained Net Rating - Tee To Green
SGR = Strokes Gained Rating
BS = Ball Striking
OTT = Off The Tee
APP = Approach
PUTT = Putting
ARG = Around The Green
T2G = Tee To Green
FRL = First Round Leader
SRL = Second Round Leader
TRL = Third Round Leader
DK = DraftKings
FD = FanDuel
CZ = Caesars
BR = BetRivers
BO = BetOnline
DSI = BetDSI
MB = MyBookie
Chris Dell is a lifelong sports journalist and news editor who has written for The New York Times, New York Daily News and Yahoo Sports, among other publications. He’s also the fantasy football/player props director and co-founder of The Betting Predators. For more of Chris’ sports content, which includes NFL fantasy rankings, player prop analysis, golf betting, DFS strategy and more, visit www.bettingpredators.com