By Chris Dell
To view the full spreadsheet of updated round to round data for our Strokes Gained Ratings, click here.
Primer/Intro: In the fall, I outlined how we can look for strong edges after Round 1 of a given PGA tournament using strokes gained statistics, combined with a little basic math. The main statistics we start with here is Strokes Gained Tee To Green (explained below). Using our "Strokes Gained Ratings" (SGR) formula, which I will summarize below, we will determine our best buys and fades for H2H matchup bets.
In order to determine our buys and fades, we will simply subtract a golfers strokes gained putting numbers for each main data point (strokes gained tee to green). The premise here is that putting is often unpredictable and will regress from round to round, whereas approach and tee to green are the "sticky" stats that indicate which golfers are/aren't playing well in the moment. Our "buy" golfers will be those with a rating of "+3" or higher. Our "fade" golfers will be those with a rating of "-3" or lower. If two buys or two fades are facing each other in a head to head matchup bet, then we will pass, in almost every scenario.
Without rambling on and on too much, I'll explain how these strokes gained statistics are sorted out here:
Strokes Gained is broken down into four categories, and depending on a certain course/tournament, we will look to target certain stats specifically to determine out H2H, round to round matchup prop bets.
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
- Strokes Gained: Putting
- Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (which is Off-the-Tee + Approach)
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (which is Ball-Striking + Around-the-Green)
Please Note: I've added a few wrinkles to better help you sort through our buy and fade lists below AND search for the best available head to head matchup bets/odds possible. The golfers with asterisks by their name will denote that they cleared our buy/fade threshold in either 2, 3 or 4 of the following categories:
- Strokes Gained Putting of below -2 or above +2 (Rounded Up From 1.50 If Needed)
- Strokes Gained Tee To Green of below -2 or above +2 (Rounded Up From 1.50 If Needed)
- Strokes Gained Net Rating of below -3 or above +3 (Rounded Up From 2.50 If Needed)
WYNDHAM CHAMPIONSHIP: ROUND 2 TOP BUYS
Strokes Gained Rating (SGR)
*Lucas Glover +6.13
*Tom Lewis +5.38
*Bubba Watson +5.31
Andrew Landry +5.29
*Cameron Percy +5.19
Francesco Molinari +4.94
*C.T. Pan +4.61
*Michael Gellerman +4.59
Jason Dufner +4.37
*Alex Smalley +4.09
*Hideki Matsuyama +3.96
Adam Scott +3.89
Michael Kim +3.82
Seamus Power +3.72
Talor Gooch +3.24
Doc Redman +3.17
Will Zalatoris +3.04
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Charl Schwartzel +2.98
Adam Hadwin +2.89
Martin Laird +2.80
Brian Harman +2.74
Fabian Gomez +2.71
Kevin Na +2.63
Michael Thompson +2.59
Brandt Snedeker +2.50
WYNDHAM CHAMPIONSHIP: ROUND 2 TOP FADES
Strokes Gained Rating (SGR)
*Ben Taylor -6.80
Mito Pereira -5.74
Matt Vick -5.15
*Brice Garnett -5.00
Chez Reavie -4.58
*Johnson Wagner -4.16
Jonas Blixt -4.02
*Doug Ghim -3.95
Wyndham Clark -3.81
*Nate Lashley -3.79
Kiradech Aphibarnrat -3.71
*Scott Harrington -3.55
J.T. Poston -3.51
Mackenzie Hughes -3.46
Rafael Campos -3.40
Tyler Duncan -3.33
Sepp Straka -3.30
Satoshi Kodaira -3.29
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Rickie Fowler -2.91
Luke List -2.82
Lanto Griffin -2.80
Branden Grace -2.69
Martin Trainer -2.68
Adam Long -2.63
John Senden -2.57
Vincent Whaley -2.57
Strokes Gained Ratings Key
*Golfer qualifies as a buy/fade in strokes gained putting AND strokes gained tee to green