Week 9 NFL Betting Market Report & Actionable Insights w/ Mackenzie Rivers

NFL Week 9 Opening Line Report: How the Market Has Moved After Week 8

Each week, in this article, we will assess how the betting market has adjusted its expectations for the upcoming week’s games after digesting the latest batch of data from Thursday’s and Sunday’s finals. By comparing the lookahead lines with the current odds, we’ll break down how each team's performance and key injuries might have influenced the market's perception and the NFL betting landscape.

Going forward from Week 5 on, we will also provide the Summer Line to see how these teams have been re-evaluated on balance over the course of the season. However, note that the "verdict" provided will only assess how the teams have been re-assessed as a result of the prior week's action.

Please note: Lines are from the home team's perspective and rounded to the nearest half-point, except for when the line is near 3.

Thursday

HOU @ NYJ (8:15 ET / Amazon)

• Summer Line (as of July 1st): NYJ -3
• Final Look Ahead Line (Saturday night of Week 8): NYJ -1.5
• World Opener (Sunday afternoon): NYJ PK
• Current (Monday 5PM ET): NYJ -1

The Jets and Texans both failed to cover in Week 8, and we haven't seen much adjustment from the Final Look Ahead line. While Get Up and other shows may signal that this one loss was the final epic collapse that signaled the end of the Jets' season—and may have been that from a playoff potential perspective—the market saw it as just another game where their offense looked slightly better, and their defense looked significantly worse than in past weeks (i.e., pre-Saleh firing/Ulbrich promotion). On balance, the market ticked down the Jets about a 1/2 point in this matchup.

Verdict (market adjustments from Week 8): Jets downgraded 1/2 point.

Sunday

NE @ TEN (1PM ET / CBS)

• Summer Line: TEN -2.5
• Final Look Ahead Line: TEN -3.5
• World Opener: TEN -3
• Current: TEN -3 (-120)

The Patriots get a net upgrade in this matchup after their upset win over the Jets and the Titans being demolished by the Lions. However, with Drake Maye in concussion protocol, that upgrade has been muted, keeping this line north of three for Tennessee.

Verdict: Titans downgraded 1 point, Patriots downgraded 1/2 point as the market waits on more info on Drake Maye.

LAC @ CLE (1 PM ET / CBS)

• Summer Line: CLE -3
• Final Look Ahead Line: CLE +3.5
• World Opener: CLE +2
• Current: CLE +2

One of the biggest single-game upgrades for any team this season or for the Browns in years. Despite the Chargers trouncing the Saints, the Browns have flown through the +3 number in this matchup, delivering by far their best offensive performance of the season—nearly doubling their average points total.

Verdict: Browns upgraded 2 points.

NOR @ CAR (1PM ET / FOX)

• Summer Line: CAR +1
• Final Look Ahead Line: CAR +6
• World Opener: CAR +6.5
• Current: CAR +6.5

The Panthers have to be one of the lowest power-rated teams of all time. The Saints were big underdogs in back-to-back weeks and were summarily destroyed by two teams not expected to make the playoffs entering the year—Denver and Los Angeles. Yet, they are laying nearly a touchdown to Carolina. It's historic. Since 1989, five previous teams that lost their last two games by a combined 40+ points were favored by 6 or more on the road in their next game. Those teams went 5-0 SU (3-2 ATS), winning by an average of 12 points per game and covering by 5. Only two other teams since 1989 were in this situation with a losing record.

Verdict: Panthers downgraded 1 point, Saints downgraded 1/2 point.

MIA @ BUF (1 PM ET / CBS)

• Summer Line: BUF -3
• Final Look Ahead Line: BUF -5.5
• World Opener: BUF -6
• Current: BUF -6

The Dolphins' offense looked almost 2023-esque with Tua back in the fold, but their defense picked a bad time to have its worst game in a month, giving up a 9-point fourth-quarter lead in a home loss to the Cardinals. Meanwhile, the Bills continue to roll as road favorites in the Josh Allen era, blowing out the Seahawks in Seattle. The Bills are 21-7 SU and 17-11 ATS as road favorites with Josh Allen at QB. Even more impressive than a trend relative to last game, is one relevant to this one, Josh Allen vs. the Dolphins. Allen is 7-5-1 ATS vs. the Dolphins and 11-2 SU including winning all seven of his games vs. Miami at Orchard Park.

Verdict: Bills upgraded 1/2 point.

DAL @ ATL (1 PM ET / FOX)

• Summer Line: ATL +1
• Final Look Ahead Line: ATL -2.5
• World Opener: ATL -2.5
• Current: ATL -2.5

The Falcons' offense came alive in the second quarter of the season. From Weeks 1-4, they ranked 21st in offensive efficiency, but since Week 5, they have ranked 5th, thanks largely to two shootout wins over their divisional rival Buccaneers. Thanks to those wins, the Falcons are now in the catbird seat for the division, sitting on -450 odds. They need this game much less than the Cowboys, who have dropped to a season-low +300 to make the playoffs. The market made no change in this match up after the Falcon's narrow cover and the Cowboys loss on SNF.

Verdict: No change.

DEN @ BAL (4:25 PM ET / CBS)

• Summer Line: BAL -10.5
• Final Look Ahead Line: BAL -10
• World Opener: BAL -9.5
• Current: BAL -9

The Ravens allowed Jameis Winston to throw for 334 yards, 3 TDs, and rack up an 85 QBR. As awesome as MVP-favorite Lamar Jackson and the Ravens' offense has been, they allowed Winston to post an 85 QBR. Bo Nix, who threw for a career-high 284 passing yards and a career-high 3 TDs in Week 8 as the Broncos cruised past the Panthers, will have an opportunity to build on that performance. The market expects a relatively high offensive output for this game. With a total of 45, this looks to be the highest total for any Broncos game this season.

Verdict: Broncos upgraded 1/2 point, Ravens downgraded 1/2 point.

LV @ CIN (1PM ET / FOX)

• Summer Line: CIN -7
• Final Look Ahead Line: CIN -9.5
• World Opener: CIN -8
• Current: CIN -7

The Bengals' defense got back to "Bengal'ing," and their offense, without Tee Higgins, sputtered in their blowout home loss to the Eagles. This is a major downgrade for Cincinnati, though they still have viable playoff odds at +110. Every game will feel like a must-win for Zac Taylor & Co. from here on out.

Verdict: Bengals downgraded 1.5 points, Raiders upgraded 1/2 point.

IND @ MIN (1PM ET / CBS)

• Summer Line: MIN -1
• Final Look Ahead Line: MIN -6.5
• World Opener: MIN -6
• Current: MIN -6

The Vikings haven't won a game in America since September, with their lone win in London against the Jets before their bye, followed by back-to-back losses in Weeks 7 and 8. Their defense, which remains the best in the league by notable metrics such as Defensive DVOA, has given up 61 points over the last two weeks. Facing Anthony Richardson might be a get-right game for Brian Flores and company, as Richardson has been the worst QB in the league by almost any metric, including EPA/play—worse even than Spencer Rattler and Bryce Young. If Richardson fails to improve, Colts fans may begin questioning whether the team should switch back to Joe Flacco with a chance to make the postseason on the line.

Verdict: No change.

WAS @ NYG (4:05 PM ET / FOX)

• Summer Line: NYG -1.5
• Final Look Ahead Line: NYG +3
• World Opener: NYG +3
• Current: NYG +3 (EV)

Jalen Daniels looked as good as ever vs. the Bears—despite needing a Hail Mary to win it, the Commanders dominated the Bears statistically throughout the game, finishing with 481 yards of offense. The Commanders receive an upgrade for their performance and perhaps just as much for Daniels showing no signs of discomfort from his rib injury.

Verdict: Commanders upgraded 1/2 point.

CHI @ ARI (4:05 PM ET / FOX)

• Summer Line: ARI +1
• Final Look Ahead Line: ARI +1.5
• World Opener: ARI +1
• Current: ARI PK

The Bears and Cardinals each played coin-flip games on the road with opposite results. The Cardinals, winning as underdogs, received a 1/2-point upgrade in this matchup, with various shops posting lines ranging from Bears +1 to Cardinals +1.

Verdict: Cardinals upgraded 1/2 point.

DET @ GB (1 PM ET / CBS)

• Summer Line: GB -1.5
• Final Look Ahead Line: PK
• World Opener: GB +4
• Current: GB +3 (EV)

Jordan Love is back on the injury watch list after pulling up with a groin injury early in the third quarter. From the lookahead line, the Lions had been upgraded about 1.5 points in this matchup from the summer, sitting at Pick’em. Earlier in the season, the Packers were downgraded around 7 points for their Week 2 matchup after Love's injury at the end of Week 1, with the Packers shifting from 5-point favorites to closing as 2 or 2.5-point home underdogs hosting the Colts. Since the Packers went 2-0 with Malik Willis as a starter, we can assume the differential between the QBs is now less than the initial adjustment—let’s say Willis was upgraded by 1 point per start, meaning the new adjustment should be 5 points.

The Week 9 adjustment from the lookahead line of GB Pick’em to now GB +4 reflects about 5 points of value, especially when considering the shift through the key number of 3. A key factor here is the Lions’ dominance in another blowout win, scoring 52 and allowing just 14 points, while the Packers largely met expectations before and after the Love injury. If Love were healthy, the Lions would likely receive a 0.5-point upgrade—let’s call it 1 point. That suggests the line should be Lions -5 without Love and Lions -1 with Love. The market currently prices the line as ~75% toward Love being out, and if his absence becomes official, the line would move to DET -5.

Notably, the line and the information we glean from it isn't always correct. For example, the Bears/Commanders line from Week 8 indicated Jalen Daniels would not play, but after it was announced he would, the line moved 4.5 points. While the 80% figure may reflect the market’s best guess about Love’s status, some Vegas sources have expressed greater pessimism about his availability.

Verdict: Lions upgraded 1 point, Packers downgraded 3 points as the market awaits more info on J. Love.

LAR @ SEA (4:25 PM ET / FOX)

• Summer Line: SEA +1.5
• Final Look Ahead Line: SEA -3
• World Opener: SEA -1.5
• Current: SEA PK

The market reacted massively to the Rams' overperformance vs. the Vikings and the Seahawks' underperformance against the Bills. The Rams' offense couldn’t have looked more BACK—with Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp in the fold, the Rams put up 30 points on a short week against the Vikings, who had fielded the best defense in the league. The Seahawks continue to look like the Jekyll and Hyde team, especially on defense where teh Seahawks rank 29th in effeciency since Week 4.

Verdict: Rams upgraded 1.5 points, Seahawks downgraded 1.5 points.

JAX @ PHI (4:25 PM ET / CBS)

• Summer Line: PHI -3.5
• Final Look Ahead Line: PHI -6.5
• World Opener: PHI -7
• Current: PHI -7

The Eagles’ late-season swoon from last year and their early-season injuries from this one seem like a distant memory. Kellen Moore's offense still hasn't scored a 1st-quarter touchdown but has exploded afterward. The Eagles have put up 65 points over two games since getting WR A.J. Brown back and returning from their bye week. That's their best two-game stretch of scoring since Weeks 8 and 9 of last season—exactly one year ago.

Quietly, Trevor Lawrence has had the best four-game stretch of his career, posting an MVP-like 80.3 average QBR over his last four games. Unfortunately, the Jaguars are only 2-2 in those games, as their defense has seemingly regressed in step with their offense's improvement. Doug Pederson, who won a Super Bowl for the Eagles, could find himself on the hot seat if Jacksonville fails to stay competitive here. The Jaguars head into only their second SNF game since 2008.

Verdict: Eagles upgraded 1/2 point.

Monday

MNF: TB @ KC (8:15 PM ET / ESPN)

• Summer Line: KC -7
• Final Look Ahead Line: KC -1
• World Opener: KC -9
• Current: KC -9

In Week 8 vs. Atlanta, the Buccaneers' offense looked just as pass-happy and almost as potent despite losing their top wide receivers in Week 7. Despite their loss and failure to cover, the market liked what it saw from the Buccaneers' offense and upgraded them slightly in this matchup. Unfortunately, having to play hero ball has led Baker Mayfield to throw 7 interceptions in his last three games. The Chiefs and Arrowhead Stadium will no doubt look to push Baker into some mistakes.

Verdict: Buccanneers upgraded 1/2 point.

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