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Mackenzie Rivers, Chris Dell and Smoove deliver you the most actional analysis and best bets on NFL sides, totals, teasers and props for the '24 season.
NFL WEEK 9 MATCHUPS PREVIEW
New England Patriots @ Tennessee Titans
- Opening Line: Titans -3 / Total: 38.5
- Current Line: Titans -3 / Total: 38
- Smoove Line: Titans -1.64 / Total: 40.66
After being called soft by their head coach, the Patriots responded with a 3-point upset win over the Jets as a 7-point home underdog. This matchup relies on Drake Maye's health status. He pushes the ball down the field for New England and is the best option for this team to be competitive, even though Jacoby Brissett played most of the game last week. Maye started the week out as a limited participant in practice, so if he plays, I like New England, but with his status undetermined, it’s just a lean for now.
Lean: Patriots +3
Los Angeles Chargers @ Cleveland Browns
- Opening Line: Chargers -3.5 / Total: 39
- Current Line: Chargers -1.5 / Total: 43.5
- Smoove Line: Chargers -0.55 / Total: 40.41
Under Deshaun Watson, the Browns had one of the worst offenses in the league, ranking 31st in YPG and 32nd in YPP. However, in one start under Jameis Winston, they put up 400 yards of offense and 29 points in a win against the Ravens. The Chargers defense should be a tougher task, but Winston has breathed new life into this Cleveland offense. The best value was on Cleveland with the opening number, so at just 1.5, it’s just a strong lean to the Browns.
Lean: Browns +1.5
New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers
- Opening Line: Saints -4.5 / Total: 46
- Current Line: Saints -7.5 / Total: 43.5
- Smoove Line: Saints -5.24 / Total: 48.52
Carolina is the worst team in the league with a 1-6 SU and ATS record, and they’re going back to Bryce Young to start at quarterback, so this could be a sign that they’re tanking for the rest of the season to lock up the top pick in the draft. Derek Carr is expected to be back in the lineup for the Saints, which should boost New Orleans. The best number to back the Saints was at 4.5, so with the line now set at 7.5, it would have to be a pass or pair New Orleans with another team for a teaser.
Pass
Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills
- Opening Line: Bills -5.5 / Total: 48.5
- Current Line: Bills -6 / Total: 49
- Smoove Line: Bills -8.58 / Total: 45.56
Tua Tagovailoa’s return to the lineup last week for the Dolphins still wasn’t enough to get a win against the Cardinals, and now they have to face a much better team in the Bills. This will be a division game, and Buffalo is at the top of the AFC East and one of the best teams in the AFC. My model made this line closer to 9 at 8.58, so there’s value in backing the Bills as a heavy public play that gets 78% of the tickets.
Best Bet: Bills -6
Dallas Cowboys @ Atlanta Falcons
- Opening Line: Falcons -2 / Total: 48.5
- Current Line: Falcons -2.5 / Total: 52
- Smoove Line: Falcons -4.78 / Total: 48.94
These are teams headed in opposite directions. Atlanta is 5-3 at the top of the NFC South division, and the Cowboys are just 3-4 and in third place in the NFC East division. After signing his big extension before the season got started, Dak Prescott is failing to meet expectations. He ranks 23rd in QBR and is tied for 4th with the most interceptions (8). Dallas’ defense should also struggle with this Falcons passing attack led by Kirk Cousins.
Best Bet: Falcons -2.5
Denver Broncos @ Baltimore Ravens
- Opening Line: Ravens -9.5 / Total: 43.5
- Current Line: Ravens -9 / Total: 46.5
- Smoove Line: Ravens -2.35 / Total: 45.25
The Broncos have been one of the surprise teams of the season with a 5-3 SU record, but they’ve also been one of the most profitable teams with a 6-2 ATS record, and they’re getting a lot of points for this matchup with the Ravens who are coming off a SU ATS loss to the Browns. Both offenses should have the edge over each other’s defenses, and Bo Nix has done a great job of protecting the ball, so there’s value in grabbing Denver with the points.
Best Bet: Broncos +9
Las Vegas Raiders @ Cincinnati Bengals
- Opening Line: Bengals -9 / Total: 44.5
- Current Line: Bengals -7 / Total: 46.5
- Smoove Line: Bengals -4.78 / Total: 46.74
The Bengals have been one of the more disappointing teams this season, with just a 3-5 SU record, and the honeymoon seems to be over for the Raiders with Antonio Pierce as head coach. I don’t have much confidence backing either of these teams, so I think the value will be on the total and looking towards the under. Both teams are 5-3 to the over, and the majority of the tickets are coming in on the over.
Lean: Raiders/Bengals under 46.5
Washington Commanders @ New York Giants
- Opening Line: Commanders -3 / Total: 43
- Current Line: Commanders -4 / Total: 44
- Smoove Line: Commanders -3.18 / Total: 42.26
Washington is coming off a comeback win over the Bears last week with the Hail Mary at the end of the game. They now have to face a divisional opponent in the Giants, so this could be a potential letdown spot. However, they’re 6-2 SU and 6-1-1 ATS, so even at the worst number, I have no confidence backing the Giants in this spot. They’re 2-6 SU and 2-5-1 ATS and could be looking to secure a top draft spot rather than saving the season.
Lean: Commanders -4
Chicago Bears @ Arizona Cardinals
- Opening Line: Bears -2 / Total: 46
- Current Line: Cardinals -1 / Total: 44.5
- Smoove Line: Cardinals -0.83 / Total: 43.83
Chicago is coming off a tough loss, but they’re 4-3 SU and 4-2-1 ATS, and I would expect them to bounce back and keep their focus for the entire game. The Bears have one of the best defenses in the league and should keep Kyler Murray under control.
Like: Bears +1
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Philadelphia Eagles
- Opening Line: Eagles -6.5 / Total: 47
- Current Line: Eagles -7.5 / Total: 45.5
- Smoove Line: Eagles -7.54 / Total: 46.34
The Eagles are 5-2 SU and 4-3 ATS and are currently on a 3-game winning streak. They seem to be finding their rhythm under their new offensive and defensive coordinators. At 6.5, the Eagles were the best bet, but at 7.5, the value is gone, as my model made this line 7.54.
Pass
Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks
- Opening Line: Seahawks -3 / Total: 48
- Current Line: Rams -1.5 / Total: 48
- Smoove Line: Seahawks -1.36 / Total: 46.74
The Rams are just 3-4, and the market has moved them from +3 to -1.5 against Seattle because they’re now healthy with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua back in the lineup. The Rams have also faced the second-hardest SOS, while Seattle has faced the 19th-ranked SOS. The value would’ve been to grab the points with the Rams when this line opened, but now this is another pass for me.
Pass
Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers
- Opening Line: PK / Total: 50.5
- Current Line: Lions -3 / Total: 48
- Smoove Line: Lions -2.88 / Total: 49.08
This matchup will depend on the health of Jordan Love and whether he’ll be able to play for the Packers. Oddsmakers have already adjusted the line as if he won’t play, as this line opened as a PK and is now out to Lions -3, and some shops are showing signs of moving to -3.5. Wait until closer to kickoff to see if Love will play before wagering on this matchup.
Pass
Indianapolis Colts @ Minnesota Vikings
- Opening Line: Vikings -6.5 / Total: 46
- Current Line: Vikings 5.5 / Total: 46.5
- Smoove Line: Vikings -5.89 / Total: 46.39
The Colts made the quarterback change from Anthony Richardson to Joe Flacco, which is an upgrade, but I don’t think it’ll be enough as they face the Vikings, who are 5-2 SU and ATS. The Vikings have one of the best defenses in the league and put a lot of pressure on the opposing quarterbacks. My model made this line Vikings -5.89, so there’s value in backing Minnesota with the line coming down from -7.
Best Bet: Vikings -5.5
Tampa Bay Bucs @ Kansas City Chiefs
- Opening Line: Chiefs -9.5 / Total: 45
- Current Line: Chiefs -9 / Total: 45.5
- Smoove Line: Chiefs -5.95 / Total: 48.43
Even without their top two wideouts last week, Tampa Bay showed they still can move the ball and score points, as they gained 394 yards of offense and 26 points. Kansas City is undefeated and 5-2 ATS, but I think they’re being overvalued in this spot, as my model made this line 5.95.
Best Bet: Bucs +9
Justin 'Smoove' Everett (@Smoove_702)
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Our team of professional bettors and handicappers, led by Mackenzie Rivers, Chris Dell and Smoove, deliver real-time best bets and player props, all in one place, through the end of the Super Bowl each season.