Week 8 NFL Betting Market Report & Actionable Insights w/ Mackenzie Rivers

NFL Week 8 Opening Line Report: How the Market Has Moved After Week 7

Each week, in this article, we will assess how the betting market has adjusted its expectations for the upcoming week’s games after digesting the latest batch of data from Thursday’s and Sunday’s finals. By comparing the lookahead lines with the current odds, we’ll break down how each team's performance and key injuries might have influenced the market's perception and the NFL betting landscape.

Going forward from Week 5 on, we will also provide the Summer Line to see how these teams have been re-evaluated on balance over the course of the season. However, note that the "verdict" provided will only assess how the teams have been re-assessed as a result of the prior week's action.

Please note: Lines are from the home team's perspective and rounded to the nearest half-point, except for when the line is near 3.

Thursday

MIN @ LAR (8:15 ET / Amazon)

• Summer Line (as of July 1st): LAR -3.5
• Final Look Ahead Line (Saturday night of Week 5): LAR +3
• World Opener (Sunday afternoon): LAR +3
• Current (Monday 5PM ET): LAR +3

Both teams failed to cover in Week 7 but largely met expectations overall. The Vikings now fall into an interesting trend: teams suffering their first loss of the season and then playing the following Thursday are only 13-18-1 ATS (42%).

Verdict (market adjustments from Week 7): No change.

Sunday

BAL vs. CLE (1PM ET / CBS)

• Summer Line: CLE -+1.5
• Final Look Ahead Line: CLE +9.5
• World Opener: CLE +10.5
• Current: CLE +10

Losing Deshaun Watson likely for the season with an Achilles injury briefly lifted the Cleveland faithful's spirits during their Week 7 loss to the Bengals. However, the market only sees this as a minor downgrade, given their struggles—losing, failing to cover again, and missing their team total for the 7th consecutive time this season. Outside of three Joe Flacco games, the Browns haven’t hit their Team Total since beating the Ravens 33-31 in Week 10 last season.

Verdict: Browns downgraded 1/2 point.

TEN @ DET (1 PM ET / FOX)

• Summer Line: DET-7
• Final Look Ahead Line: DET -9.5
• World Opener: DET -11.5
• Current: DET -11.5

The Lions asserted themselves as one of the top power-rated NFL teams by scoring four consecutive touchdowns against the Vikings’ vaunted defense, fueling a 28-7 run in the second and third quarters of Week 7. Meanwhile, the Titans were downgraded, not primarily due to their quarterback switch—which didn’t help—but because their defense, once their stronghold, faltered against the Bills. Josh Allen torched them for 300+ yards, the first time he has done so in 10 games.

Verdict: Lions upgraded 1 point, Titans downgraded 1 point.

ARI @ MIA (1PM ET / FOX)

• Summer Line: MIA -6
• Final Look Ahead Line: MIA -4
• World Opener: MIA -3.5
• Current: MIA -3.5 (EV)

Despite uncertainty surrounding Tyler Huntley’s recovery timeline after injuring his shoulder in Week 7, the Dolphins remain favored by more than a field goal. However, they were slightly downgraded following their loss to the Colts, who managed to win by six points despite posting the 5th lowest completion percentage of any team over the past six seasons.

Verdict: Dolphins downgraded 1/2 point.

NYJ @ NE (1 PM ET / CBS)

• Summer Line: NE +3.5
• Final Look Ahead Line: NE +7
• World Opener: NE +7
• Current: NE +7

The Patriots, fresh off their London trip in Week 7, are looking like the worst team in football from every angle. Despite the Jets being outscored 31-0 over the final two and a half quarters in their Sunday Night Football loss to the Steelers, they remain a touchdown favorite in this matchup.

Verdict: No change.

ATL @ TB (1 PM ET / FOX)

• Summer Line: TB +1.5
• Final Look Ahead Line: TB -2.5
• World Opener: TB -2.5
• Current: TB-2.5

The market is giving Atlanta the benefit of the doubt, keeping their power rating unchanged despite a 20-point home loss to the Seahawks. The Falcons outgained Seattle in yards and first downs but were undone by turnovers, losing the battle 3-0, including a fumble returned for a touchdown.

Verdict: No change.

CHI @ WAS (4:25 PM ET / CBS)

• Summer Line: WAS +2
• Final Look Ahead Line: WAS -2.5
• World Opener: WAS -1
• Current: CHI +1

While Jayden Daniels’ mother reassured Commanders fans that “He’s fine,” after Daniels left the game in Week 7 with a rib injury, the market seems unconvinced about his status for this matchup in Week 8. After opening as 2.5-point favorites on the lookahead line, the Commanders are now underdogs at most books, with the possibility of Marcus Mariota starting in place of Daniels at quarterback.

Verdict: No change.

GB @ JAX (1PM ET / FOX)

• Summer Line: JAX +1
• Final Look Ahead Line: JAX +3.5
• World Opener: JAX +4.5
• Current: JAX +4.5

The Packers overcame a -3 turnover differential to edge the Texans at home, dominating statistically on a play-by-play basis. Despite failing to cover, the market upgraded the Packers more than the Jaguars, who easily covered against New England. Notably, the Jaguars are 7-3-1 ATS when returning from an international or neutral-site game, winning and covering their last four.

Verdict: Packers upgraded 1 point.

IND @ HOU (1PM ET / CBS)

• Summer Line: IND -4
• Final Look Ahead Line: IND -6.5
• World Opener: IND -6.5
• Current: IND -6.5

This line reflects more of a Colts downgrade than a Texans upgrade, despite the Colts' win. The Colts' offense has underperformed significantly with Anthony Richardson compared to Joe Flacco. Flacco currently ranks 4th in EPA per dropback, just above Lamar Jackson and just below Joe Burrow. In contrast, Richardson ranks last (34th) among quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks, just below Spencer Rattler.

Verdict: Colts downgraded 2 points.

NOR @ LAC (4:05 PM ET / FOX)

• Summer Line: LAC +3
• Final Look Ahead Line: LAC -6
• World Opener: LAC -7
• Current: LAC -7.5

The Spencer Rattler era in New Orleans kicked off with a strong 27-point first half in Week 6. However, since then, the Saints have managed only 10 points in a game and a half, with seven of those coming in garbage time after Rattler exited during their blowout loss to Bo Nix and the Broncos. The market continues to downgrade the Saints, reassessing their injury-riddled situation and their coach Dennis Allen's career ATS record of 30-46-1 (39.5%).

Verdict: Saints downgraded 1.5 points; Chargers awaiting MNF result.

BUF @ SEA (4:05 PM ET / FOX)

• Summer Line: SEA +2
• Final Look Ahead Line: SEA +3
• World Opener: SEA +3
• Current: SEA +3

Both the Seahawks and the Bills secured blowout victories in Week 7, but the Bills' statistical dominance came against much weaker competition. As a result, the market saw no need to adjust the line for this matchup.

Verdict: No change.

PHI @ CIN (1 PM ET / CBS)

• Summer Line: CIN -3
• Final Look Ahead Line: CIN -3
• World Opener: CIN -2.5 (-120)
• Current: CIN -2.5 (-120)

Despite the Bengals still sitting below .500, the market views them as the better team in this matchup against a 4-2 Eagles squad coming off their most dominant win of the season. While the Eagles received an upgrade following their win in the Meadowlands, the market continues to favor the Bengals by more than 2.5 points. Over the last two seasons, the Eagles are 15-9 straight up, while the Bengals are just 12-12 overall and 8-9 with Joe Burrow.

Verdict: Eagles upgraded 1/2 point.

CAR @ DEN (4:25 PM ET / CBS)

• Summer Line: DEN -2.5
• Final Look Ahead Line: DEN -7.5
• World Opener: DEN -7.5
• Current: DEN -7.5

Jayden Daniels leads the NFL in EPA/play and Completion Percentage Above Expectation, the gold standards of NFL QB advanced stats. Arguably, if the season ended today, Daniels should be the league's Most Valuable Player. This makes it all the more befuddling that after he left the game due to injury, the Panthers were still outscored 30-7 by Marcus Mariota and the rest of the Commanders. While calls have already started to bring back Bryce Young at QB, and fingers are starting to point at first-year head coach Dave Canales, zooming out reveals the franchise's problems may be more systemic. The Panthers have won only 30% of their games and covered 40% during owner David Tepper’s seven-year tenure. The 2020s Panthers may go down as one of the sustained low points for any franchise in NFL history, right alongside the mid-2010s Browns. (For the record, the 2011 through 2017 Browns won 21% of their games and covered 43%.)

Verdict: No change.

KC @ LV (4:25 PM ET / CBS)

• Summer Line: KC -4.5
• Final Look Ahead Line: KC -9.5
• World Opener: KC -10
• Current: KC -10

The Chiefs went another game without a passing touchdown but were still upgraded due to their elite defense and the magic of Patrick Mahomes. Kansas City has now won 11 consecutive games, with Steve Spagnuolo's defense holding opponents under their Vegas Team Total in 10 of those contests.

Verdict: Chiefs upgraded 1/2 point.

SNF: DAL @ SF (8:20 PM ET / NBC)

• Summer Line: SF -4.5
• Final Look Ahead Line: SF -7
• World Opener: SF -5
• Current: SF -5.5

The 49ers were downgraded significantly after their double-digit loss to the Chiefs, compounded by the likely season-ending injury to WR Brandon Aiyuk. However, the downgrade wasn’t solely due to injuries—Brock Purdy had arguably his worst game as a pro, posting a career-low 13.4 QBR.

Verdict: 49ers downgraded 1.5 points.Sure?

Monday

MNF: NYG @ PIT (8:15 PM ET / ESPN)

• Summer Line: PIT -4
• Final Look Ahead Line: PIT -4.5
• World Opener: PIT -6.5
• Current: PIT -6.5

The Steelers' offense looked shaky early with new QB Russell Wilson at the helm but found its rhythm, scoring touchdowns on four of their final five possessions. This strong finish likely secures Wilson more time as the starter moving forward.

The Giants also made a QB switch in Week 7, albeit only in garbage time of their blowoutloss to the Eagles. Perhaps going to the hostile environment of Pittsburgh might be good for Giants and the psyche of Daniel Jones. Since Jones signed his $160M contract with the franchise ahead of the 2023 NFL season, the Giants have averaged only 12 PPG at home. In 2024, the Giants are scoring around 3X as many points on the road as they are at home (22.7 vs. 7.7).

Verdict: Steelers upgraded 1 point, Giants downgraded 1 point.

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