Smoove's NFL Week 8 Betting Preview & Best Bets Matchup Column

NFL WEEK 8 MATCHUPS PREVIEW

• Tennessee Titans @ Detroit Lions
• Opening Line: Lions -9.5 / Total: 45
• Current Line: Lions -11 / Total: 45
• Smoove Line: Lions -10.93 / Total: 48.23

With the line moving 1.5 points from its opening number from 9.5 to 11, I think the value is gone, as my model made this line 10.93. However, there is value in playing this total over 45, as my model set the total at 48.23, and it has to do with how explosive the Lions' offense is. Detroit ranks 2nd in YPG, YPP, and 8th in YPPO. They also rank 3rd in PPG, but they’ve been averaging 40 PPG over the last three weeks.

Lean: Titans/Lions over 45

Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns

• Opening Line: Ravens -9.5 / Total: 43
• Current Line: Ravens -8.5 / Total: 44.5
• Smoove Line: Ravens -9.46 / Total: 49.02

After the performance the Ravens displayed on Monday Night Football, it will be difficult to fade this team as they have the best offense in the league, led by Lamar Jackson, who’s the favorite to win MVP at +225, and Derrick Henry, who’s the favorite to win OPOY +100. Deshaun Watson is out for the season for Cleveland, and Jameis Winston will get the start. Since 2013, the Browns have had the most games started by a backup quarterback (64), and so far this year, backup quarterbacks are 8-9 SU and 9-8 ATS. In 2022, Winston made three starts and went 0-3 ATS, failing to cover the spread by 7.3 PPG, so I wouldn’t expect a spark from Cleveland’s offense with the quarterback change.

Like: Ravens -8.5

Green Bay Packers @ Jacksonville Jaguars

• Opening Line: Packers -4 / Total: 48
• Current Line: Packers -4 / Total: 49
• Smoove Line: Packers -3.44 / Total: 49.62

Since returning from injury, Jordan Love has looked better every week, averaging 258.6 passing yards over his last four starts. He’ll get to face this Jaguars secondary that ranks bottom five or worse in every passing category, so instead of playing the spread or total for this matchup, the best value is to look into the player prop market for Jordan Love:

Like: Jordan Love 250+ passing yards -135 @ DraftKings

Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans

• Opening Line: Texans -5.5 / Total: 47.5
• Current Line: Texans -5 / Total: 46
• Smoove Line: Texans -5.67 / Total: 44.45

CJ Stroud is one of the better young quarterbacks in the league, but the Texans' offense is struggling to be efficient at scoring in their home games, as they have a 17.7 YPPO at home. Indianapolis was a more efficient scoring offense under Joe Flacco, but Anthony Richardson has his starting quarterback job back, and they’ve averaged just 19 PPG under his command. The total has dropped from 47.5 to 46, but there’s still value in playing the under, as my model has this total at 44.45.

Like: Colts/Texans under 46

Arizona Cardinals @ Miami Dolphins

• Opening Line: Dolphins -2.5 / Total: 47.5
• Current Line: Dolphins -3.5 / Total: 45.5
• Smoove Line Dolphins -2.21 / Total: 45.53

Tua Tagovailoa returns to the field after missing the last four games due to another concussion, but I think the value will be on the Cardinals in this matchup. Arizona is coming off a win on Monday Night Football against the Chargers, and they’re 4-3 ATS this year while facing the hardest strength of schedule compared to the Dolphins, who have faced the 2nd easiest strength of schedule. In his career, Kyler Murray is 28-17-2 ATS as an underdog dog, and as a road dog, he’s 18-7-2 ATS, which ranks 6th best since 2003.

Best Bet: Cardinals +3.5

Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Opening Line: Bucs -1.5 / Total: 48
• Current Line: Falcons -2.5 / Total: 46
• Smoove Line: Bucs -1.31 / Total: 55.33

Tampa Bay will be without their best two wideouts in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, so the explosive plays made in the passing game from this offense will suffer. Still, for this divisional matchup with the Falcons, they’ll be able to lean on the running game as they’re averaging 135 RPG and 5.1 YPC, and the Falcons' rush defense allows 137 RPG and 4.4 YPC. This should also be a good situational spot to back Tampa Bay as Baker Mayfield, on short rest as an underdog, is 5-3 ATS in his career.

Like: Buccaneers +2.5

New York Jets @ New England Patriots

• Opening Line: Jets -6.5 / Total: 40
• Current Line: Jets -7 / Total: 41
• Smoove Line: Pats -0.25 / Total: 43.17

After trading for Davante Adams, the Jets were shut out in the 2nd half by the Steelers, and Jerod Mayo has called his Patriots team soft in the media, so both teams will be desperate for a win. Also, the Patriots will be playing the Jets fresh off their international game against the Jaguars without a bye in between. Teams in this spot have gone 16-8 SU and 13-11 ATS in their next game, so I wouldn’t rely much on New England being a tired team from playing an international game and heading into week 8 without a bye.

Best Bet: Patriots +7

Philadelphia Eagles @ Cincinnati Bengals

• Opening Line: Bengals -2.5 / Total: 48
• Current Line: Bengals -2 / Total: 48
• Smoove Line: Bengals -0.01 / Total: 45.41

A win this week for the Eagles would put them in a great position to take over 1st place in the NFC East division, with Jayden Daniels' status up in the air this week. Both offenses will have the edge over each other’s defenses, and this game will come down to which quarterback will make the mistake. My model made this line more of a PK, so there’s value in grabbing the points with the Eagles.

Best Bet: Eagles +2

Buffalo Bills @ Seattle Seahawks

• Opening Line: Bills -3 / Total: 48
• Current Line: Bills -3 / Total: 47
• Smoove Line: Bills -1.93 / Total: 46.31

Both teams are coming off blowout wins. The Bills beat the Titans by 24 points as 10-point favorites, and the Seahawks beat the Falcons by 20 points as 3-point road underdogs. Seattle’s offense ranks 8th in YPG and 10th in YPP, and it's because of Geno Smith and this passing attack that ranks 1st in YPG and 5th in completion percentage, so they should be able to attack this Buffalo secondary.

Best Bet: Seahawks +3

New Orleans Saints @ Los Angeles Chargers

• Opening Line: Chargers -6.5 / Total: 38
• Current Line: Chargers -7 / Total: 40.5
• Smoove Line: Chargers -8 / Total: 36.56

The Saints have lost five games in a row and are dealing with a cluster of injuries on both sides of the ball. They’re still without Derek Carr. The Chargers will look to bounce back from a tough loss to the Cardinals on short rest. After the first three weeks, the Saints' defense has fallen off, mainly due to injuries, as they allowed their opponents to score 26+ points in four straight weeks. Over the last 10 years, teams in this situation are 43-86 SU and 51-76-2 ATS in their next game.

Best Bet: Chargers -7

Chicago Bears @ Washington Commanders

• Opening Line: Commanders -1.5 / Total: 47
• Current Line: Bears -3 / Total: 43.5
• Smoove Line: Commanders -4.36 / Total: 43.26

This would’ve been a great matchup of young quarterbacks between Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels. Still, Daniels seems unlikely to play as he didn’t practice Wednesday because of the rib injury, and the movement in the spread and total reflects that. Washington is also dealing with some injuries to their offensive line, as three of the five starters are currently listed as questionable. If Daniels can’t play, Washington will turn to Marcus Mariota, who has a lot of experience as a former starter in this league. Still, I don’t think he brings the same explosion to this offense we’ve seen with Jayden Daniels healthy.

Lean: Pass

Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders

• Opening Line: Chiefs -9.5 / Total: 43.5
• Current Line: Chiefs -9.5 / Total: 41.5
• Smoove Line: Chiefs -9.06 / Total: 41.30

Kansas City has dominated this division rivalry matchup, with the Raiders going 8-2 SU and 6-4 ATS over the last 10 matchups. Patrick Mahomes may have some added motivation to embarrass the Raiders, as they mocked him in the offseason. The Raiders are only 2-5, and coming off last week's game, they had 4+ turnovers and 10+ penalties. Since 2011, teams with four or more turnovers and 10 or more penalties in their previous game are just 19-28 SU and 18-29 ATS in their next game.

Lean: Chiefs -9.5

Carolina Panthers @ Denver Broncos

• Opening Line: Broncos -4 / Total: 43
• Current Line: Broncos -9.5 / Total: 41.5
• Smoove Line: Broncos -13.69 / Total: 43.77

The Panthers are the worst team in football, with a 1-6 SU and ATS record of losing games by 19 PPG. They were competitive the first two weeks after moving to Andy Dalton, but over the last three weeks, they’ve lost by an average of 25.6 PPG, and they’re making another quarterback change to Bryce Young. This line moved 5.5 points when the news broke that Bryce Young would be starting, but I still see value in laying the points with Denver, as my model made this line for the Broncos -13.69.

Best Bet: Broncos -9.5

Dallas Cowboys @ San Francisco 49ers

• Opening Line: 49ers -7 / Total: 49
• Current Line: 49ers -4 / Total: 46.5
• Smoove Line: 49ers -3.63 / Total: 45.85

The best value in this matchup would’ve been to grab the points at the opening number with the Cowboys. The 49ers are feeling the effects of the Super Bowl curse and just dealing with a cluster of injuries, causing this line to move 3 points toward Dallas. The last time the Cowboys took the field, they were getting embarrassed by the Lions on their home field, losing 47-9, so they’ll be playing with added motivation in a prime-time spot.

Lean: Cowboys +4

New York Giants @ Pittsburgh Steelers

• Opening Line: Steelers -3.5 / Total: 37.5
• Current Line: Steelers -6.5 / Total: 36
• Smoove Line: Steelers -8.86 / Total: 39.50

Kansas City and Baltimore are the consensus Super Bowl contenders from the AFC, but Pittsburgh is a legit dark horse led by their elite defense. Russell Wilson may give them what they’ve been missing on offense: a quarterback who can drive the ball down the field to his wide receivers when the opportunity is there, as he did in his debut with the Steelers on Sunday Night Football last week. The Giants are 2-5 SU and 2-4-1 ATS, and they’re not a contender as they benched Daniel Jones last week for his poor play and will face one of the best defenses in the league that can really put pressure on opposing quarterbacks, so I would expect more of the same.

Best Bet: Steelers -6.5 

Justin 'Smoove' Everett (@Smoove_702)

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