Week 7 NFL Betting Market Report & Actionable Insights w/ Mackenzie Rivers

NFL Week 7 Opening Line Report: How the Market Has Moved After Week 6

Each week, in this article, we will assess how the betting market has adjusted its expectations for the upcoming week’s games after digesting the latest batch of data from Thursday’s and Sunday’s finals. By comparing the lookahead lines with the current odds, we’ll break down how each team's performance and key injuries might have influenced the market's perception and the NFL betting landscape.

Going forward from Week 5 on, we will also provide the Summer Line to see how these teams have been re-evaluated on balance over the course of the season. However, note that the "verdict" provided will only assess how the teams have been re-assessed as a result of the prior week's action.

Please note: Lines are from the home team's perspective and rounded to the nearest half-point, except for when the line is near 3.

Thursday

DEN @ NOR (8:15 ET / Amazon)

• Summer Line (as of July 1st): NOR -3.5
• Final Look Ahead Line (Saturday night of Week 5): NOR +1
• World Opener (Sunday afternoon): NOR -1
• Current (Monday 5PM ET): NOR -1

Two teams coming off of definitive losses that highlighted and defined their deficiencies. The Broncos' offense seemed like it was back to square one, with Bo Nix leading the team in rushing but never finding comfort in the dropback game. The Broncos fell behind by 20 points in the first half against the Chargers. Meanwhile, the Saints' defense looked worse than ever, giving up 51 points at home to the Bucs. Their defense has had a sharp regression over the past two weeks, mirroring the offensive fall-off from prior weeks, which has yet to turn around despite some flashes in the first half vs. Tampa. Bettors determined that the Broncos' offensive downgrade was more significant and predictive of their future performance, shifting them in this matchup from being a small favorite to a small underdog versus Spencer Rattler & Co.

Verdict (market adjustments from Week 6): Broncos downgraded 1 point, Saints downgraded 1/2 point.

Sunday

NE vs. JAX (930AM ET / NFL Network *London*)

• Summer Line: JAX -6
• Final Look Ahead Line: JAX -5.5
• World Opener: JAX -5.5
• Current: JAX -5.5

Don't look now, but Trevor Lawrence might not be the worst contract in the league. Quietly, Lawrence is coming off his best two games of the season, earning a 90 and a 78 PFF grade, respectively, over the last two weeks. Looking at PFF's overall season rankings, Lawrence's overall grade is 11th, one spot below Patrick Mahomes and one spot ahead of Kirk Cousins. If we average his PFF rank (11th) with his QBR rank (18th), it comes out to 14.5 out of 32. Lawrence may seem like an expensive, average QB, but consider that among the other nine quarterbacks making an average of $50M per year, only Joe Burrow (2.5 AVG PFF/QBR rank) and Lamar Jackson (5.0) rank better than Lawrence in this combined metric. Players like Love, Hurts, Dak, Tua, Herbert, and Goff have all graded worse or significantly worse than Lawrence over the season.

All this points to the fact that if changes are coming to Jacksonville—and at 1-5, there's good reason to think they might—they likely won’t involve swapping out Lawrence, who has been performing decently. The pressure instead falls on the other problems plaguing the Jags, who are 1-10 in their last 11 games. This feels like a must-win game for Doug Pederson, who is probably on shaky ground regardless. Both teams disappointed significantly in Week 6, but bettors remain confident in Jacksonville to win by about a touchdown.

Verdict: No change.

SEA @ ATL (1PM ET / FOX)

• Summer Line: ATL -3.5
• Final Look Ahead Line: ATL -2.5
• World Opener: ATL -2.5
• Current: ATL -3 (EV)

If you split this season down the middle, the Seahawks' defense has gone from first to worst in a lot of metrics. Looking at Defensive EPA/play, the Seahawks are dead last since Week 4, after ranking 2nd best only behind the Steelers through the first three weeks of the season. With additional rest after playing on TNF in Week 5 and more time for Mike Macdonald to make adjustments, they could potentially revert to their earlier performance. However, they won’t have the benefit of facing as poor QB play as they did in their first three games. In fact, the Falcons' Kirk Cousins, after starting slow, has now played two excellent games in a row, posting an 85 QBR in Week 6 after setting the franchise passing yards record with over 500 yards in Week 5. Cousins' ascendance is one reason why Atlanta is pushing closer to being 3-point home favorites in this matchup.

Verdict: Falcons upgraded 1/2 point, Seahawks downgraded 1/2 point

TEN @ BUF (1 PM ET / CBS)

• Summer Line: BUF -7
• Final Look Ahead Line: BUF -7.5
• World Opener: BUF -9
• Pre-MNF: BUF -8.5
• Post-MNF: BUF -8.5

The Titans are 0-4 SU & ATS in games where Will Levis plays more than a quarter. Only Bryce Young ranks worse than him this season in PFF grade, and only Deshaun Watson ranks worse among QBs that qualify for Total QBR. The Titans have given no indication they are ready to make a QB switch, and as a result, even before their MNF game, the Bills have been upgraded 1.5 points in this matchup. The Titans have been downgraded significantly after another poor performance from Levis (95 yards on 27 attempts), which led to another loss despite the rest of the team playing admirably.

The Bills largely met expectations in their narrow win at the Jets, and saw no adjustment to their Week 7 line.

Verdict: Titans downgraded 1-point.

CIN @ CLE (1PM ET / CBS)

• Summer Line: CLE +1
• Final Look Ahead Line: CLE +4
• World Opener: CLE +4.5
• Current: CLE +5

The market has upgraded the Bengals in this matchup after their workman-like win over the Giants, while Cleveland failed to impress offensively, despite their defense and special teams doing enough for them to cover against the Eagles. Why would the market make an adjustment when both teams covered their previous games by similar margins? This relative downgrade for Cleveland seems to come down to offense and vibes. These are two disappointing Ohio teams, but with vastly different projected futures. The Bengals might only have one more win than the Browns, but Joe Burrow and their offense—which is the more predictive feature of an NFL team—still rank near the top of the league, even after a pedestrian outing in their SNF win over the Giants. On the other hand, the Browns' offense, led by a walking distraction and controversy in Deshaun Watson, has failed to score 20 points in any game through six weeks, becoming the first team to achieve that level of futility since the 2014 Jaguars, who went on to finish 3-13.

Verdict: Browns downgraded 1/2 point, Bengals upgraded 1/2 point

HOU @ GB (1 PM ET / CBS)

• Summer Line: GB -2.5
• Final Look Ahead Line: GB -2.5
• World Opener: GB -2.5 (-120)
• Current: GB -2.5 (-120)

Money has come in on the Packers here as the market views these teams as roughly equal competition. Packers' optimism may stem from the upward trend of Jordan Love, who arguably had his best game of the season in their comfortable win over the Cardinals. The box score suggests that the Texans' offense is back on track, as they welcomed the return of their top two running backs, Joe Mixon and Dameon Pierce. Houston rushed for nearly twice as many yards in Week 6 at New England than in any of the previous four games without them. However, the analytics are less favorable to the Texans' offense, which ranks 25th in Success Rate on the season and didn't fare much better against the Patriots, ranking only 16th out of the 26 teams that have played so far in Week 6.

Verdict: Packers upgraded 1 point, Texans upgraded 1/2 point

MIA @ IND (1 PM ET / FOX)

• Summer Line: IND +1
• Final Look Ahead Line: IND -3.5
• World Opener: IND -4
• Current: IND -3.5

After their road cover and upset win over Tennessee, the market briefly upgraded the Colts when it re-opened this matchup against the Dolphins, who are coming off their bye. However, bettors quickly moved the number back to where the lookahead line was, at Colts -3.5. The market is still pricing and re-pricing the possibility that Joe Flacco is currently an upgrade over Anthony Richardson, who has missed most of the last three games. In Flacco’s starts, the Colts are averaging 27 PPG versus under 20 PPG in Richardson's games. The Colts have seen this improvement with Flacco at QB even without Jonathan Taylor, who missed both of Flacco’s starts. Despite this touchdown-per-game improvement, team reports indicate that Richardson is in line to reclaim his starting spot this week.

Verdict: No change.

DET @ MIN (1 PM ET / FOX)

• Summer Line: MIN +3
• Final Look Ahead Line: MIN -1.5
• World Opener: MIN -2
• Current: MIN -2

The Lions put up one of the most dominant performances of the season, beating the Cowboys—who, it's easy to forget, were the 2-seed in last year’s NFC Playoffs—by a whopping 38 points in a game that didn’t even feel that close. Despite this demolition, the market didn’t budge, keeping the Vikings as slight home favorites. That’s how impressive Minnesota has been through five weeks, ranking 1st in Total DVOA. Who is the second-best team in the league by Total DVOA? That would be the Detroit Lions, who are the only team in the NFL to have both a top 4 offense and a top 4 defense by DVOA. If this were college football this would arguably be a game of the century #1 vs. #2 situation. Get your popcorn ready.

Verdict: No change.

PHI @ NYG (4:05PM ET / FOX)

• Summer Line: NYG +3.5
• Final Look Ahead Line: NYG +4
• World Opener: NYG +3.5
• Current: NYG +3

The Eagles were significantly downgraded in this matchup despite beating the Browns at home, and despite the Giants losing and failing to cover on SNF. The Eagles seemed to be significantly boosted by A.J. Brown, who had 116 receiving yards and seemed to make every big play for the Eagles when it counted. Despite being close to fully healthy, however, the Eagles only scored 20 points, raising the question of what the real problem is in Philadelphia. After the game, Eagles RT Lane Johnson described Philly's offense as "constipated." Meanwhile, the Giants' offense hasn't been much better, only scoring 1 offensive touchdown in three home games so far this season. The Giants hope to get WR Malik Nabors back into the fold.

Verdict: Eagles downgraded 1-point, Giants upgraded 1/2 point under the expectation Malik Nabors returns.

LV @ LAR (4:05PM ET / CBS)

• Summer Line: LAR -4
• Final Look Ahead Line: LAR -4
• World Opener: LAR -5.5
• Current: LAR -5.5

Rams' HC Sean McVay likely won't have his favorite weapons back in this game—with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua still out—but with the benefit of the bye, he will get the opportunity to attack one of the worst rush defenses, as well as the NFL's worst rushing team—the Raiders. Look for the Rams to dictate the game flow here. The market has upgraded the Rams by 1.5 points in this matchup after the Raiders' switch to QB Aidan O'Connell failed to jumpstart their offense in their home humiliation to the Steelers in Week 6.

Verdict: Raiders downgraded 1.5 points.

CAR @ WAS (4:25 PM ET / CBS)

• Summer Line: WAS -3
• Final Look Ahead Line: WAS -8.5
• World Opener: WAS -8
• Current: WAS -7.5

Washington's offense continued to hum against the Ravens, but their defense had no answers for Baltimore's diverse passing and rushing attack. The Panthers' defense completely folded against the Falcons, allowing them to score on their final six drives of the game. Expecting somewhat of a shootout (total of 52), bettors on balance have backed Carolina here, pushing the line down to Washington being only slightly more than a touchdown favorite.

Verdict: Commanders downgraded 1/2 point.

KC @ SF (4:25 PM ET / FOX)

• Summer Line: SF -2
• Final Look Ahead Line: SF -1.5
• World Opener: SF -1.5
• Current: SF -1

The Super Bowl rematch we’ve all been waiting for. Some, such as Bill Simmons on his "Guess the Lines" Podcast, expressed surprise that the 49ers are favored in this matchup, and perhaps an undefeated, 2x defending champion should always get the nod in these tight affairs. Mahomes is a ludicrous 12-1-1 ATS in his career as an underdog, including his masterclass in the second half of last year’s Super Bowl to earn his third ring against this very same opponent. That said, perhaps we shouldn't be surprised the 49ers remain favorites when considering that the market has already moved significantly in the Chiefs' direction for this match-up. In last year’s final game, the 49ers were considered 1.5 points better on a neutral field (SF -1.5), even without considering the point or two of value the market had given the Chiefs due to their edge in Super Bowl experience. Now, with this line drifting closer to pick’em or 49ers by 1, the Chiefs are considered 1 to 1.5 points better than the 49ers—a not-insignificant ~2.5ish-point shift over each team's last 6 or 7 games.

Verdict: Chiefs upgraded 1/2 point off a bye, because...Andy Reid of a bye... Mahomes as an underdog...they're the Chiefs, etc.

SNF: NYJ @ PIT (8:20 PM ET / NBC)

• Summer Line: PIT +1
• Final Look Ahead Line: PIT -1.5
• World Opener: PIT -1.5
• Pre-MNF: PIT -1.5
• Post-MNF & Adams trade: PIT +1.5

Given the standard 1.5 or 2-point homefield advantage in the NFL, this line is telling us that the 2-3 Jets right now are considered even teams with the 4-2 Steelers? While that might seem wild on face value, digging into some key metrics, we find it might not be that crazy. By Defense DVOA, the Steelers and Jets are 11th and 12th respectively. By offensive DVOA, the Steelers and Jets are 22nd and 23rd respectively, again with the Steelers ranking just slightly better. One might think that advantage in the metrics (albeit narrow), combined with the fact that the team has won 67% of their games while the Jets have only 40% of their games and just fired their coach, would give more of an edge to Pittsburgh at home here. Or perhaps the market is hopeful Rodgers and the Jets' offense will be rejuvenated with a new play caller. Or maybe the NY team is simply overvalued here illogically because people like to bet on NY teams. It's unclear—and it should be fascinating to see how the market moves after Monday Night Football, after which the Jets just might be in first place in the AFC East.

DAVANTE ADAMS TRADE: The New York Jets shook up the NFL Tuesday morning by pulling off a major trade for All-Pro receiver Davante Adams. Acquired for a 3rd-round pick, which could escalate to a 2nd-rounder if they reach round 3 of the playoffs, Adams’ arrival immediately moved the Vegas market for the Jets Week 7 match-up vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers on SNF. This news comes just hours after their narrow loss on Monday Night Football, where they arguably could have/should have beaten MVP contender Josh Allen and the Super Bowl-hopeful Buffalo Bills.

Immediately after the game, the market shrugged off the Jets' performance, leaving the line for their Week 7 matchup with the Steelers unchanged, with New York as a small road underdog. Once the Adams trade news broke Tuesday morning, however, the line flipped from Jets +1.5 to Jets -1.5, an approximate 2-point swing (after accounting for going through the 0, i.e., four half-point line moves).

At the same time, reports surfaced that the Steelers would give QB Russell Wilson first-team reps in practice, expecting him to start Sunday instead of Justin Fields. The market saw no movement after this announcement, indicating Wilson's potential start was viewed as a net neutral for the Steelers—unlike the Adams trade, which signaled an unambiguous upgrade for New York.

With Rodgers and Adams together again, the question must be asked: Can there be a second "Last Dance"? And if Jordan and Pippen are reuniting, is it more Portland or Washington? Time will tell, but the market is optimistic, making the Jets road favorites against the 4-2 Steelers, despite Adams having just a short week to acclimate to the squad. At DraftKings, the odds on the Jets to make the playoffs are Yes +145 (39%), No -175 (61%).

Verdict: Jets upgraded 2-points after Adams trade.

Monday

MNF: BAL @ TB (8:15 PM ET / ABC)

• Summer Line: TB +5
• Final Look Ahead Line: TB +4.5
• World Opener: TB +4
• Current: TB +3.5 

As much as the Ravens' offense has impressed—and it has, ranking 1st in yards, points, practically everything—the Buccaneers, due to their offensive explosion, have been upgraded significantly more since last week and since the start of the season. Baker Mayfield is on pace for 43 passing touchdowns and will be keen on improving his total against a Ravens defense that has proven susceptible to the pass, possibly the one chink in their armor at the moment.

Verdict: Buccaneers upgraded 1.5 points.

MNF: LAC @ ARI (9 PM ET / ESPN)

• Summer Line: ARI -1
• Final Look Ahead Line: ARI PK'em
• World Opener: ARI +2
• Current: ARI +2.5 (EV)

The Chargers were upgraded after a decisive win at Denver. Meanwhile, Arizona was downgraded after allowing the Packers' offense to look the best it has all season, losing in a rout at Green Bay. The market has shifted nearly 3 points in the Chargers' direction, making them road favorites for the second consecutive week. Of note: The Chargers have shown a predictable pattern this season—storming out to leads but struggling to maintain momentum as their offense stalls in second halves. They rank dead last in points per 2nd half this season, averaging only 5.0 points per game. Arizona has followed a similar trend. Combined, these teams average 26.2 points in 1st halves versus only 14.2 in 2nd halves.

Verdict: Chargers upgraded 1.5 points, Cardinals downgraded 1.5 points.

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