Smoove's NFL Week 7 Betting Preview & Best Bets Matchup Column

NFL WEEK 7 MATCHUPS PREVIEW

New England Patriots vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

• Opening Line: Jaguars -6 / Total: 40.5
• Current Line: Jaguars -5.5 / Total: 42.5
• Smoove Line: Patriots -1.24 / Total: 44.70

Despite Drake Maye losing his debut start last week, New England has to be encouraged by what they saw from their first-round quarterback. Maye threw for three touchdowns while averaging 7.6 YPC when he scrambled. The Patriots were also without their top running back, who could be back in the lineup, but they’ll be facing a much easier defense in the Jaguars, as I have them rated as the worst team in the league. My model made this line 1.24, and respected money is coming in on the Patriots dropping this line from -6 to -5.5.

Best Bet: Patriots +5.5

Seattle Seahawks @ Atlanta Falcons

• Opening Line: Falcons -3 / Total: 46.5
• Current Line: Falcons -3 / Total: 51
• Smoove Line: Falcons -6.45 / Total: 48.13

Kirk Cousins and this Falcons offense have found their rhythm as they’ve put up 429 YPG and 33 PPG over the last three weeks; both marks rank 4th in the league during that span. Seattle started the season 3-0, but they beat Bo Nix in his first start, the Patriots in overtime, and the Dolphins without their starting quarterback. Since then, they’ve lost three straight games and will have to deal with one of the hottest offenses in the league. Atlanta may be the public side as they’re getting 71% of the tickets, but my model made this line Falcons -6.45, so expect Atlanta to continue to roll.

Best Bet: Falcons -3

Tennessee Titans @ Buffalo Bills

• Opening Line: Bills -7 / Total: 42.5
• Current Line: Bills -9.5 / Total: 42.5
• Smoove Line: Bills -9.91 / Total: 43.25

Buffalo will be on a short week as they got the win and cover on Monday Night Football against the Jets, but as long as the Titans continue to start Will Levis, he’ll continue to kill their chances of winning games. Levis has thrown a game-changing interception in every game he’s started and finished this season, and now will have to face one of the best defenses in the league. This line opened Bills -7, and it looks like sharp and public money love the Bills as Buffalo is getting 73% of the tickets and 79% of the handle moving this line from -7 to -8.5. My model made Buffalo -9.91, so it’s Bills or pass for this matchup.

Like: Bills -9.5

Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns

• Opening Line: Bengals -4.5 / Total: 44.5
• Current Line: Bengals -6.5 / Total: 42
• Smoove Line: Browns -1.38 / Total: 45.66

Cincinnati was able to find a way to win and cover on Monday Night Football against the Giants, but they were outgained, had fewer first downs, and New York had the ball for almost ten minutes more than them, so this would be considered a false final score. The Browns are power-rated as the sixth-worst team in football, but the Bengals shouldn’t be laying 6.5 points on the road in a divisional game.

Lean: Browns +6.5

Houston Texans @ Green Bay Packers

• Opening Line: Packers -1.5 / Total: 47
• Current Line: Packers -3 / Total: 47.5
• Smoove Line: Packers -3.60 / Total: 46.06

Both offenses and quarterbacks are very similar, so this will be one of the better games this weekend. I’ll give the Packers an edge, as they have one of the best home-field advantages in football. They’re coming off a 21-point win and covering over the Cardinals, and Jordan Love played his best game of the season so far. The Texans are also coming off a 20-point win and cover over the Patriots, but they were +3 in the turnover battle, and their offense just hasn’t been as efficient in scoring this year compared to last year. Also, the Texans will be without their best receiver, offensive lineman, and some key pieces on defense, and they’ll have to deal with Green Bay’s home-field advantage. Teams that follow up a road game with a second road game in Lambeau are 7-16-1 ATS and failed to cover the spread by 3 PPG. Those teams are 3-7 ATS since 2020.

Best Bet: Packers -3

Miami Dolphins @ Indianapolis Colts

• Opening Line: Colts -4 / Total: 43.5
• Current Line: Colts -3 / Total: 43.5
• Smoove Line: Colts -7.52 / Total: 37.78

Indianapolis is expected to start Anthony Richardson, and the line has moved a point against the Colts. At this moment, Joe Flacco is the better quarterback that gives the Colts the best chance to win. Still, Indianapolis is in a tough spot, needing to play Anthony Richardson for his development, but he struggles with processing at an NFL level and being accurate. In the three games that Richardson has started and finished, the Colts are averaging just 19.3 PPG, and in the three games that Joe Flacco has either started or played a lot, the Colts are averaging 27 PPG. My model made this line Colts -7.47 because the Dolphins are the worst team in football without Tua Tagovailoa.

Lean: Colts -3

Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings

• Opening Line: Vikings -1.5 / Total: 48.5
• Current Line: Vikings -1.5 / Total: 50
• Smoove Line: Vikings -4.53 / Total: 45.03

The Vikings are the only team that’s 5-0 SU and ATS, but what’s more impressive is that they’re covering the spread by 13.5 points, and they’ve had 3rd hardest strength of schedule. The Lions are coming off a blowout win over the Cowboys by 38 points, and these two teams are very similar, but Detroit has had the easier strength of schedule, ranking 23rd, and they’ll be without one of the best pass rushers in the league in Aidan Hutchinson. This line opened Vikings -1.5, and 70% of the tickets are coming in on Detroit, but the line has moved from -1.5 to -2.5, so Detroit can be this week's public trendy underdog. My model made the Vikings -4.53. Undefeated teams on 13-plus days rest are 27-15 ATS since 2003.

Best Bet: Vikings -1.5

Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants

• Opening Line: Eagles -4.5 / Total: 44
• Current Line: Eagles -3 / Total: 43
• Smoove Line: Eagles -2.72 / Total: 39.48

New York is coming off a tough loss where they won the stat sheet against the Bengals, and Philadelphia is coming off a fortunate win over the Browns, where their offense struggled coming out of their bye week. Malik Nabers may be ready to play this week after missing the last two games dealing with a concussion, and he is the go-to target for Daniel Jones, as he’s been targeted 52 times. The Eagles have won 4 of the last five matchups, but the Giants have covered 3 of the previous five matchups. This line opened Eagles -4.5, and the public is backing them as they’re getting 72% of the tickets, but this line has moved from -4.5 down to -3, and the Giants are getting just 28% of the tickets and 50% of the handle, indicating sharp reverse line movement for the Giants.

Like: Giants +3

Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Rams

• Opening Line: Rams -4 / Total: 44
• Current Line: Rams -7 / Total: 43.5
• Smoove Line: Rams -6.28 / Total: 41.94

The Raiders are coming off a 19-point loss, just traded one of their best players, Davante Adams, to the Jets, and rumors are picking up that they could be entertaining trading their other best player, Maxx Crosby, so all these signs would signal that the Raiders are punting on the rest of this season and trying to lock up a top 3 pick to secure a quarterback of the future as this will be a talented group of quarterbacks to draft from. Also, the Rams are coming off their bye, and their upcoming schedule will start to lighten up. Cooper Kupp began the week on the practice field, so he could be returning to play this week. This number opened at Rams -4 and has moved to -6.5. My model made this line Rams -6.28, so there’s no value in laying the points with the favorite, and I would not recommend backing the Raiders, so I would look towards playing the total under. It opened at 44 and has moved to 43.5, with 52% of the tickets coming in on the over. My model set the total at 41.94.

Lean: Raiders/Rams under 43.5

Carolina Panthers @ Washington Commanders

• Opening Line: Commanders -7 / Total: 49
• Current Line: Commanders -8 / Total: 51.5
• Smoove Line: Commanders -6.60 / Total: 55.22

The Commanders have been one of the biggest surprises so far, led by the play of Jayden Daniels, but this might be too big of a number to lay when you consider their defense is ranked bottom 10 or worse in key areas. They rank 22nd in opponent YPG, 30th in opponent YPP and 18th in opponent YPPO. Carolina has struggled the last two weeks, only averaging 15 PPG, but they faced some above-average defensive units in the Bears and Falcons. This number opened Commanders -7, and respected money has moved it to -8 with 88% of tickets backing Washington, but my model made this line Commanders -6.60.

Like: Panthers +8

Kansas City Chiefs @ San Francisco 49ers

• Opening Line: 49ers -1 / Total: 46.5
• Current Line: 49ers -1.5 / Total: 47
• Smoove Line: 49ers -0.85 / Total: 43.29

This will be one of the better games this week with a rematch of the Super Bowl, and the 49ers will have some added motivation to pick up a win over the Chiefs for the first time in the Kyle Shanahan era in San Francisco. Brock Purdy has played at an MVP level despite the injuries to key offensive players who have missed games, improving his MVP odds from 20/1 to 14/1 at most shops. The Chiefs have played under Andy Reid coming out of a bye, but the 49ers are coming off a mini-bye. This line opened 49ers -1 and has moved to -1.5 even though 66% of the tickets are backing the Chiefs. My model made this line 49ers -0.85, so there’s no value in laying the points, but I’ll back the 49ers on the money line.

Like: 49ers ML -122

New York Jets @ Pittsburgh Steelers

• Opening Line: Steelers -1 / Total: 37
• Current Line: Jets -1.5 / Total: 38
• Smoove Line: Steelers -4.51 / Total: 38.54

There will be some changes to each team's roster when Sunday Night Football kicks off as Davante Adams expects to make his debut for the Jets, reuniting with Aaron Rodgers, and the Steelers are looking to make a change at quarterback, inserting Russell Wilson as he took reps at practice with the first team. That won’t change the fact that Pittsburgh has a defense that ranks in the top 10 or better in every major statistical category and will look to get after Aaron Rodgers. My projections from Justin Fields to Russell Wilson is only a 0.02 difference, and my model projects Steelers -4.51, so there’s value in playing the home underdog.

Like: Steelers +1.5

Baltimore Ravens @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Opening Line: Ravens -5 / Total: 47.5
• Current Line: Ravens -3.5 / Total: 49.5
• Smoove Line: Bucs -0.61 / Total: 46.79

Lamar Jackson has dominated NFC teams in his career with a 22-1 SU record, but he’s just 11-11-1 ATS, and I love the spot Tampa Bay is in. This Tampa Bay passing game, led by Baker Mayfield, will be able to have their way against this Ravens secondary that ranks 31st in pass yards, 27th in opponent yards/completion and 27th in QB rating. This line opened Ravens -5 with 63% of the tickets backing Lamar Jackson, but this line has dipped from -5 to -3.5 with the Bucs getting just 37% of the tickets and 52% of the handle, indicating sharp reverse line movement on Tampa Bay and I think they’re live to win outright.

Best Bet: Bucs +3.5

Los Angeles Chargers @ Arizona Cardinals

• Opening Line: Cardinals -1 / Total: 43
• Current Line: Chargers -2.5 / Total: 43.5
• Smoove Line: Cardinals -1.03 / Total: 42.23

Even though the Chargers are 3-2 SU and the Cardinals are 2-4 SU, oddsmakers opened this line as the Chargers being slight road underdogs, but public and sharp money moved this line from Chargers +1 to Chargers -2.5 but the Cardinals have played the significantly harder schedule as they rank 1st in SOS and the Chargers rank just 25th. The Chargers have wins over the Raiders, Panthers, and Broncos, while the Cardinals' easiest opponent they faced was a banged-up Rams team that they beat 41-10. I think there’s more value than what the stats show for the Cardinals, and my model made this line Cardinals -1.03.

Lean: Cardinals +2.5

Justin 'Smoove' Everett (@Smoove_702)

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