Week 6 NFL Betting Market Report & Actionable Insights w/ Mackenzie Rivers

NFL Week 6 Opening Line Report: How the Market Has Moved After Week 5

Each week, in this article, we will assess how the betting market has adjusted its expectations for the upcoming week’s games after digesting the latest batch of data from Thursday’s and Sunday’s finals. By comparing the lookahead lines with the current odds, we’ll break down how each team's performance and key injuries might have influenced the market's perception and the NFL betting landscape.

Going forward from Week 5 on, we will also provide the Summer Line to see how these teams have been re-evaluated on balance over the course of the season. However, note that the "verdict" provided will only assess how the teams have been re-assessed as a result of the prior week's action.

Please note: Lines are from the home team's perspective and rounded to the nearest half-point, except for when the line is near 3.

Thursday

SF @ SEA (8:15 ET / Amazon)

• Summer Line (as of July 1st): SF -3
• Final Look Ahead Line (Saturday night of Week 5): SF -3
• World Opener (Sunday afternoon): SF -3.5
• Current (Monday 5PM ET): SF -3

Both the 49ers and Seahawks lost as a touchdown-plus favorite in Week 5, resulting in a net neutral reaction from the Vegas market in this matchup. Both teams underperformed on both sides of the ball, but particularly defensively. The Seahawks' defense, which excelled early in the season against arguably the weakest starting quarterbacks through the first three weeks, has been exposed over the last two weeks, surrendering 800 yards and allowing 7.5 yards per play in back-to-back losses. Seattle allowed Daniel Jones to achieve his best passer rating (109.6) since the 2022 season, when Jones was a promising prospect who had just made the playoffs in his first year under Coach of the Year, Brian Daboll. At the same time, the 49ers now find themselves in the bottom 10 in yards per play allowed after finishing in the top 8 in that category for the past three seasons. Additionally, Brock Purdy had a rough outing, missing multiple touchdown opportunities as the 49ers went 1/6 in the red zone, lowering them to 30th in the league with just a 41% touchdown conversion rate inside the red zone—after leading the NFL in this metric last year. To make matters worse, Christian McCaffrey, though practicing, is not expected to be activated for this game, and his status remains uncertain for the foreseeable future. Overall, the market has graded out these two dud performances as a wash, with Seattle money moving the line back to -3 after oddsmakers initially gave a slight upgrade to the 49ers at open on Sunday afternoon.

Verdict (market adjustments from Week 4): 49ers downgraded 1 point, Seahawks downgraded 1 point

Sunday

JAX vs. CHI (930AM ET / NFL Network *London*)

• Summer Line: CHI -1.5
• Final Look Ahead Line: CHI -1
• World Opener: CHI -1.5
• Current: CHI -2.5

Both Trevor Lawrence and Caleb Williams—once highly-touted "chosen one" quarterback prospects—are coming off their best games of the season, and two of their more important games as pros. However, it was the Bears overall team who had the more dominant performance in Week 5, coming off their largest win and cover of the year, a 26-point blowout over the Panthers. For their part, the Jaguars earned a much needed first win, but overall merely met expectations, narrowly defeating the Colts by a field goal at home. Jacksonville has now beaten the Colts nine consecutive times when playing in their home stadium, perhaps one reason late money poured in on the Jaguars pushing them to 3.5-point favorites over Joe Flacco and Indy right before kickoff. Notably in itself that a team who had lost 9 straight was priced as 1.5-2 points better than the 2-2 Colts. In sum, because of Chicago's more commanding victory, the market has modestly adjusted the line, moving the Bears from -1.5 to now -2.5-point favorites in London.

Verdict: Jaguars upgrade 1/2 point, Bears upgrade 1.5 points

WAS @ BAL (1PM ET / CBS)

• Summer Line: BAL -7
• Final Look Ahead Line: BAL -7
• World Opener: BAL -6.5
• Current: BAL -6.5

This matchup features arguably the two best offenses in the NFL through 5 weeks. The Ravens and Commanders rank #1 and #2 in EPA and #2 and #1 in DVOA, respectively. Following both teams' wins and covers in Week 5, the line moved half a point toward Washington, who continued their dominance offensively and looked defensively competent for the second consecutive week. While the Ravens earned arguably the more impressive win given the competition and stakes—winning at Cincinnati to take control of their division—it’s logical that Washington earned a greater Vegas upgrade given their preseason priors, when they were expected to be one of the league’s worst teams. With their preseason win total set at just O/U 6.5, every successive playoff-caliber performance for Washington moves the needle more than it would for a similar performance by the Ravens.

From a broader perspective, given the massive season-long upgrade for Washington, the fact that this line is only half a point off from where it was in the summer demonstrates the continued respect the market holds for the Ravens. From a power rating perspective, Baltimore has not only rebounded from its early-season struggles and 0-2 start but has now been net upgraded on balance from where it was at the start of the season.

Verdict: Ravens upgraded 1/2 point, Commanders upgraded 1.5 points

ARI @ GB (1 PM ET / FOX)

• Summer Line: GB -5.5
• Final Look Ahead Line: GB -5.5
• World Opener: GB -5
• Current: GB -5

Both teams won and covered in Week 5. On paper, the Cardinals’ performance was much more impressive, as they won outright as 7-point underdogs, compared to the Packers who narrowly beat the spread as 3-point favorites at LA. Despite their far superior ATS margin, however, the market has only given Arizona a modest 1/2 point net upgrade in this matchup, possibly attributing the Cardinals' win more to the 49ers’ implosion than to Arizona's play.

Verdict: Cardinals upgraded 1/2 point.

HOU @ NE (1PM ET / CBS)

• Summer Line: NE +7
• Final Look Ahead Line: NE +6.5
• World Opener: NE +7
• Current: NE +7

The Patriots have now lost four straight, with their offense going from bad to abysmal during this stretch. Their highest-scoring outputs of the season came in the first two games, and they have averaged fewer than 9 PPG since Week 3. On the other hand, the Texans provide an interesting case of analyzing performance from a larger data set rather than focusing on individual games. While it's true that Houston entered Week 5 at 0-4 ATS, underperforming relative to Vegas expectations in each of their first four games, their one ATS win came in a dominant showing against the Bills, where they sprinted out to a 20-3 lead before Nico Collins left the game. Overall, while Houston hasn’t blown opponents away on a game-by-game basis, they are still 4-1 and on pace to win the AFC South title and exceed their preseason win total.

Verdict: Patriots downgraded 1 point, Texans downgraded 1/2 point with WR Nico Collins status uncertain

TB @ NOR (1 PM ET / FOX)

• Summer Line: NOR-2.5
• Final Look Ahead Line: NOR -2.5
• World Opener: NOR -2
• Pre-MNF:NOR -2
• POST MNF: NOR +2.5

The Buccaneers' offense continued to outperform expectations despite their loss on Thursday night. Heading into the Saints game on Monday night, the market views these teams as relatively even, with only a slight edge given to New Orleans at home.

The downgrade for the Saints comes only marginally from their blowout loss to the Chiefs itself - the bigger concert is Derek Carr, who undergoes an MRI Tuesday on his left oblique.

Verdict: Buccanneers upgraded 1/2 point, Saints downgraded 4-points

CLE @ PHI (1 PM ET / FOX)

• Summer Line: PHI -6.5
• Final Look Ahead Line: PHI -6.5
• World Opener: PHI -7
• Current: PHI -8.5

With the Eagles off of a bye, we have a clear view of how the Vegas market reacted specifically to the Browns' most recent performance. Unsurprisingly, the reaction was overwhelmingly negative. On Sunday afternoon oddsmakers initially re-opened this match-up Browns at +7, a 1/2 point worse than the lookahead line. However, bettors pushed the line further, downgrading Cleveland an additional point and a half, moving them to +8.5 at Philly, all based on one game. Deshaun Watson’s performance was so poor that it reinforced fears about the Browns' offense being as bad as advertised, arguably the worst in the league through the first five weeks. By any metric, this is not only the worst offense Kevin Stefanski has fielded, but one of the worst Browns offenses of the century—a century that includes the Hue Jackson and DeShone Kizer years.

Verdict: Browns downgraded 2-points

IND @ TEN (1 PM ET / CBS)

• Summer Line: TEN +1.5
• Final Look Ahead Line: TEN +1
• World Opener: TEN +1
• Current: TEN +1

With the Titans coming off a bye, the market has slightly downgraded the Colts, who continue to field one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Indianapolis ranks 29th in passing yards allowed per game and 31st in rushing yards allowed. The market downgraded the Colts about 1 point when Anthony Richardson was ruled out for Week 5 at Jacksonville, taking them all the way to +3.5-point underdogs against the winless Jaguars. It is an open question whether the market would upgrade the Colts or not should Richardson return as the starter, especially given the fact that the Colts have arguably had their two best offensive performances of the season in the two games where Joe Flacco played the majority of snaps.

Verdict: Colts downgraded 1/2point

LAC @ DEN (4:05PM ET / CBS)

• Summer Line: DEN +2.5
• Final Look Ahead Line: DEN +2.5
• World Opener: DEN +2
• Current: DEN +3

After the Broncos' third straight win—two of which were in dominant fashion—the market initially reopened this Week 6 matchup with a modest upgrade, moving Denver to +2-point home underdogs, slightly better than the lookahead line of +2.5. However, bettors quickly disagreed, pushing the line in favor of the Chargers, moving them to -3 as they come off a bye week with a rested and healthier Justin Herbert. Even prior to his injury, Herbert had been largely disappointing in 2024. The 5th-year QB ranks 26th by ESPN’s QBR, ahead of only Caleb Williams and four quarterbacks regularly involved in “start-or-sit” discussions each week: Gardner Minshew, Jacoby Brissett, Will Levis, and Deshaun Watson.

Verdict: Broncos upgraded 1/2 point, Chargers upgraded 1-point as they get healthier returning from a Bye.

PIT @ LV (4:05PM ET / CBS)

• Summer Line: LV +2.5
• Final Look Ahead Line: LV +2.5 (-120)
• World Opener: LV +3
• Current: LV +3

The Raiders jumped out to an early lead and then were promptly outscored 34-0 in their week 5 matchup at Denver. While their running game has shown signs of life over the past two weeks, even without RB Zamir White, their passing attack has been completely ineffective without the soon-to-be-traded Davante Adams. The Raiders continue to have the worst rushing efficiency in the league, pairing it with bottom-8 passing efficiency by EPA, making their entire offense look toothless.

The Steelers, who now rank 26th in points per game at 18.4 and have surpassed 20 points only once in 5 games, may look to Russell Wilson as their new QB starter.

Verdict: Raiders downgraded 1 point.

ATL @ CAR (4:25 PM ET / FOX)

• Summer Line: CAR +3.5
• Final Look Ahead Line: CAR +3
• World Opener: CAR +4.5
• Current: CAR +6.5

After being dominated in Chicago, the Panthers have been massively downgraded for Week 6. All the early enthusiasm for Andy Dalton after his first win against the Raiders, and even the optimism that lingered after staying somewhat competitive against the Bengals, now seems completely unwarranted. The Broncos' Bo Nix just put up a similar 36 points on the Raiders, making Dalton's Week 3 performance relatively less impressive, and the Bengals may have the worst defense in the league, making that 10-point loss even more damning. On the other hand, the Falcons have been upgraded after a solid win, supported by Kirk Cousins' record-breaking performance vs. Tampa. The net result is a monster ~4-point swing, with the Falcons now laying a full 6.5 points at Carolina.

Verdict: Panthers downgraded 2.5-points, Falcons upgraded 1 point

DET @ DAL (4:25 PM ET / FOX)

• Summer Line: DAL +2.5
• Final Look Ahead Line: DAL +3
• World Opener: DAL +3
• Current: DAL +3.5 (-120)

Bettors are backing the Lions coming off a bye, making them slightly greater than 3-point favorites at Dallas. Similar to how the market downgraded the Broncos in their matchup against the Chargers despite Denver's Week 5 win, bettors are favoring the rested team here as well, giving a net upgrade to the Lions despite the Cowboys' upset win over the Steelers on Sunday Night Football. Detroit continues to receive strong market support as the better-rested and healthier team here in Week 6.

Verdict: Lions upgraded 1/2 point as they get healthier of their bye.

SNF: CIN @ NYG (8:20 PM ET / NBC)

• Summer Line: NYG +4.5
• Final Look Ahead Line: NYG +5
• World Opener: NYG +3.5
• Current: NYG +3.5

The Giants had their best statistical game of the season against a previously 3-1 Seahawks team. The Bengals almost claimed their best performance of the season as well, but they let a 10-point lead slip to the Ravens, in the process further solidifying their case for having one of the worst and most unreliable defenses in the NFL.

Verdict: Giants upgraded 1.5-points.

Monday

MNF: BUF @ NYJ (8:15 PM ET / ESPN)

• Summer Line: NYJ +2.5
• Final Look Ahead Line: NYJ +2
• World Opener: NYJ +2.5
• Pre-MNF: NYJ +2.5
• POST MNF: NYJ +2.5 

The Bills started the season on fire in the dropback passing game, ranking 1st in dropback EPA through the first three weeks. However, against the first playoff-caliber teams they've faced—the Ravens and Texans—their passing efficiency has cratered, dropping to 24th over the past two weeks. Buffalo's decision to pass from underneath their own goalposts with seconds remaining looks even more puzzling given Josh Allen’s performance. Allen became the first player in 32 years to complete fewer than 10 passes on 30+ attempts, as his performance has nose-dived like Icarus, flying too close to the sun after becoming the MVP favorite following Week 3.

The market for this match up did not signifcantly move after the team let go Robert Saleh as head coach Tuesday morning.

Verdict: Bills downgraded 1/2 point, Jets downgraded 1/2 point

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