Smoove's NFL Week 6 Betting Preview & Best Bets Matchup Column

NFL WEEK 6 MATCHUPS PREVIEW

• San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks
• Opening Line: 49ers -3 / Total: 47
• Current Line: 49ers -3.5 / Total: 49.5
• Smoove Line: 49ers -1.15 / Total: 46.37

In two of the three losses for the 49ers, they’ve blown double-digit leads in the fourth quarter to divisional opponents in the Rams and last week against the Cardinals. This will motivate the 49ers team to finish the game, especially if they get another double-digit lead in the 2nd half. Also, Seattle is dealing with many injuries on defense, as Tariq Woolen and Byron Murphy have been ruled out. In divisional games where both teams are on short rest over the last 20 years, favorites are 98-79-5 ATS, and road teams are 99-77-5 ATS. The 49ers opened as a -3 point favorite, and they’re getting 61% of the tickets and 67% of the handle, moving the line to -3.5, which would indicate sharp money on the 49ers to get the win and cover.

Best Bet: 49ers -3.5

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Chicago Bears

• Opening Line: Jaguars -1 / Total: 42
• Current Line: Bears -2 / Total: 44.5
• Smoove Line: Bears -3.79 / Total: 43.97

Caleb Williams has improved weekly, and the Bears are 2-0 SU and ATS over the last two weeks. The Jaguars are coming off their first win of the season, and this should be a tough spot for them as teams in week six or later coming off their first SU win are 45-82 SU in their next game, so expect a letdown spot for the Jaguars. Favorites have been great in international games, with a record of 35-10-1 SU and 31-15 ATS. This line opened Jaguars -1, but the Bears are getting 73% of the tickets and 83% of the handle, moving the Bears from a small dog to a small -2 point favorite, and my model made this Bears -3.79.

Best Bet: Bears -2

Washington Commanders @ Baltimore Ravens

• Opening Line: Ravens -6.5 / Total: 49.5
• Current Line: Ravens -6.5 / Total: 51.5
• Smoove Line: Ravens -5.21 / Total: 52.39

In his career, Lamar Jackson is 21-1 SU against NFC teams, but he’s just 11-11 ATS but Washington is one of the few teams averaging 30 PPG this season. The Ravens are coming off a wild overtime win against the Bengals while the Commanders are coming off a blowout win over the Browns, so this should be a tough spot for Baltimore as teams coming off playing an extra session facing a team that didn’t in the following week are just 44% ATS. This line opened at Ravens -6.5, but the Commanders have been on the public side as they’re getting 71% of the tickets, but just 56% of the handle, and the line has been frozen at 6.5. My model made this line Ravens -5.21.

Lean: Commanders +6.5

Arizona Cardinals @ Green Bay Packers

• Opening Line: Packers -5 / Total: 49.5
• Current Line: Packers -5 / Total: 47.5
• Smoove Line: Packers -6.02 / Total: 47.42

The Cardinals are coming off an impressive 10-point comeback win over the 49ers as 7.5-point road underdogs. The Packers are coming off a nice road win over the Rams as 3-point road favorites, so I’m expecting the Cardinals to be in a tough spot as teams are 73-96-1 ATS (43%) in their next game since 2020 when they have a 10+ point comeback win. This line opened at Packers -5 and has stayed there as Green Bay is getting 46% of the tickets and 63% of the handle, and my model made this line Packers -6.02, so there’s value in backing Green Bay at home.

Best Bet: Packers -5

Houston Texans @ New England Patriots

• Opening Line: Texans -6.5 / Total: 41.5
• Current Line: Texans -7 / Total: 38
• Smoove Line: Texans -0.06 / Total: 39.88

Houston is coming off a 3-point win over the Bills as small home favorites, and the Patriots are coming off a tough divisional home loss to the Dolphins as 1-point underdogs, and they’re making a QB change from Jacoby Brissett to 1st-round draft pick Drake Maye. The NFL has not been kind to rookies making their first start as rookie quarterbacks since 2000, which is just 43-94-1 SU (31.4%), and the Texans defense ranks 4th in YPP (4.8). This total opened at 41.5, and 61% of the tickets are expecting this total to go over, but 39% of the tickets and 57% of the handle are coming in on the under, dropping this total from 41.5 to 38, indicating some sharp reverse line movement on the under so I wouldn’t expect many sports scored in this matchup.

Like: Texans/Patriots under 38

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints

• Opening Line: Saints -3 / Total: 44.5
• Current Line: Bucs -3.5 / Total: 41.5
• Smoove Line: Bucs -5.97 / Total: 33.31

Tampa Bay is coming off their mini bye as they’re coming off their 6-point overtime loss to the Falcons as 2.5-point underdogs. The Saints are on short rest and are coming off their Monday night loss to the Chiefs by 13 points as 5-point underdogs, and they’ll be without Derek Carr and will have to start a rookie quarterback on a short week against a top divisional opponent. Since 2018, the Saints are 22-32 ATS at home, which qualifies as the 3rd worst profitable home team. This line opened Saints -3, but there’s been a 6.5 point adjustment going from Derek Carr to Spencer Rattler, and the Bucs are getting 75% of the tickets and 83% of the handle, and my model made this line Bucs -5.97.

Best Bet: Buccaneers -3.5

Cleveland Browns @ Philadelphia Eagles

• Opening Line: Eagles -6.5 / Total: 44
• Current Line: Eagles -9 / Total: 42.5
• Smoove Line: Eagles -2.89 / Total: 45.79

Cleveland is coming off an embarrassing loss to the Commanders as they lost by 21 points as a 3-point underdog, and Deshaun Watson was sacked another seven times, making him the most sacked quarterback in football (26). The Eagles are coming off their bye week looking to have a better performance as they lost by 17 points to the Bucs as 1-point road favorites. It’s a small sample size, but under Nick Sirianni, the Eagles are 4-1 SU and 3-1-1 ATS after their bye week, and since 2003, teams playing at home off their bye week against a team that’s on regular rest have a 64% SU win percentage. This line opened Eagles -6.5 and has moved 2.5 points to -9, with the Eagles getting 56% of the tickets and 62% of the handle, signaling the sharps money expects the Eagles to hand Cleveland another embarrassing double-digit loss.

Lean: Eagles -9

Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans

• Opening Line: Colts -1 / Total: 42
• Current Line: Titans -2.5 / Total: 43
• Smoove Line: Titans -3.62 / Total: 41.48

The Joe Flacco-led offense has produced 30.5 PPG over the last two weeks. Still, it looks like they’ll be turning back to Anthony Richardson for week six, and the oddsmakers made a 3.5-point adjustment going from Joe Flacco to Anthony Richardson, as they’re averaging just 19.3 PPG in games he’s started and finished this season. The Titans are coming off their bye week as they had a 19-point win over Miami as a 2.5-point underdog before their bye week led by Mason Rudolph, but they’ll be turning back to Will Levis, and he’s been great in his young career off a bye with a 3-1 SU record. Tennessee is also receiving some sharp reverse line action as 71% of the tickets are backing the Colts, but 29% of the tickets and 37% of the handle are backing the Titans. My model made this line Titans -3.62 with Richardson back at QB for Indy.

Best Bet: Titans -2.5

Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos

• Opening Line: Chargers -2.5 / Total: 37.5
• Current Line: Chargers -3 / Total: 35.5
• Smoove Line: Broncos -1.57 / Total: 36.73

The Chargers are looking to be much healthier as they’re coming off their bye week. The Broncos look to move to 4-2, led by one of the best defenses in the league that ranks 4th in opponent YPPO (18.6) and 2nd in opponent YPP (4.4), so it will be tough for both offenses to move the ball and find points on these defenses. The total opened 37.5, with 58% of the tickets coming in on the over, but there’s some reverse sharp line movement on the under, with 42% of the tickets and 81% of the handle backing the under, dropping this total from 37.5 to 35.5.

Like: Chargers/Broncos under 35.5

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Las Vegas Raiders

• Opening Line: Steelers -3 / Total: 38
• Current Line: Steelers -3 / Total: 36.5
• Smoove Line: Raiders -0.29 / Total: 39.69

Both teams are coming off bad weeks, as the Steelers lost on Sunday Night Football to the Cowboys when they won the turnover battle 3 to 0. Questions are getting louder about Russell Wilson replacing Justin Fields, and the Raiders, coming off a 16-point divisional rivalry loss to Denver, have made a quarterback change to Aidan O’Connell, who started 10 games for Las Vegas last year. This total opened at 38, and 54% of the tickets are coming in on the over, but 46% of the tickets and 67% of the handle are taking the under, dropping this total from 38 to 36.5, indicating some reverse sharp line movement on the under.

Like: Steelers/Raiders under 36.5

Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers

• Opening Line: Falcons -3 / Total: 44.5
• Current Line: Falcons -6 / Total: 47
• Smoove Line: Falcons -9.32 / Total: 48.70

Kirk Cousins and the Falcons offense are starting to develop some chemistry as they’ve averaged 31 PPG and 432.5 YPG over the last couple weeks compared to just 23.5 PPG and 355.57 YPG during the first three games of the season. Andy Dalton gave Carolina a nice spark during his start against the Raiders, but that spark is starting to fade as the Panthers have suffered double-digit losses the last two weeks, averaging just 17 PPG. This line opened Falcons -3, and the public loves Atlanta as they’re getting 86% of the tickets and 88% of the handle, with the line moving from -3 to -6. My model made this line Falcons -9.32, so it’s in line with the public and pros backing the Falcons.

Lean: Falcons -6

Detroit Lions @ Dallas Cowboys

• Opening Line: Lions -3 / Total: 52
• Current Line: Lions -3 / Total: 52
• Smoove Line: Cowboys -2.18 / Total: 48.46

Before going into their bye week, the Lions had an impressive win over the Seahawks by 13 points as 4-point favorites, and the Cowboys are coming off an impressive Sunday Night Football win over the Steelers, where they lost the turnover battle 3 to 0. Both teams have explosive offenses, but their defenses don’t get enough credit as the Lions' defense ranks 10th in opponents YPPO, and over their last three games, the Cowboys rank 10th in opponents YPPO (16.4). This total opened at 52 with 52% of the tickets and 54% of the handle backing the under, but there’s been a line freeze at 52. My model made this total 48.46

Lean: Lions/Cowboys under 52

Cincinnati Bengals @ New York Giants

• Opening Line: Bengals -4.5 / Total: 46
• Current Line: Bengals -3.5 / Total: 48
• Smoove Line: Bengals -2.76 / Total: 41.58

Cincinnati is coming off a disappointing overtime loss to the Ravens last week, as they had a 10-point lead late in the 2nd half, and the Giants are coming off an impressive win over the Seahawks without Malik Nabers and Devin Singletary. Cincinnati’s defense ranks 29th in opponent YPPO (12.6), and when Daniel Jones faces a defense that allows 24 points or more as an underdog, he’s 10-6 ATS. This line opened Bengals -4.5 and is currently getting 75% of the tickets and handle. Still, the Giants are getting 25% of the tickets and handle, dropping this line from -4.5 to -3.5, indicating sharp reverse line movement towards the Giants. My model made this line Bengals -2.76.

Like: Giants +3.5

Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets

• Opening Line: Bills -1.5 / Total: 44.5
• Current Line: Bills -2.5 / Total: 41
• Smoove Line: Bills -0.86 / Total: 43.48

Both teams are coming off some tough losses as the Bills went on the road and lost to the Texans, and the Jets suffered a tough loss to the Vikings as they only scored 6 points from the 2nd quarter to the end of the game and the Jets fired their head coach Robert Saleh. The Jets' defense ranks 1st in opponent YPPO, and the Bills rank 13th, so it’ll be tough for these offenses to gain yardage and try to score points. This total opened at 44.5, and 63% of tickets are backing the over, but 37% of the tickets and 59% of the handle are coming in on the under, moving the total from 44.5 to 41, signaling sharp reverse line movement on the under the total of 41.

Like: Bills/Jets under 41

Justin 'Smoove' Everett (@Smoove_702)

Our NFL Premium Package is now available for the 2024 season! The Betting Predators NFL Premium Package was created to give you with the highest-quality NFL betting and player prop analysis. We're here to help you save time, win money and overall become a long-term profitable sports bettor.

Our team of professional bettors and handicappers, led by Mackenzie Rivers, Chris Dell and Smoove, deliver real-time best bets and player props, all in one place, through the end of the Super Bowl each season.