Smoove's NFL Week 5 Betting Preview & Best Bets Matchup Column

NFL Week 5 Matchups & Best Bets:

• New York Jets vs. Minnesota Vikings
• Opening Line: Jets -1.5 / Total: 42.5
• Current Line: Vikings -2.5 / Total: 40
• Smoove Line: Vikings -2.51 / Total: 40.27

Minnesota is the only team in the league that is 4-0 SU and ATS with a while having some impressive wins over the Texans, 49ers, and Packers, but I think this is a great spot to fade them as there’s been too much of an adjustment to this line from the opening number. Aaron Rodgers has a lot of experience facing the Vikings as he’s 17-11-1 SU and 17-12 ATS against them. The public is also backing the Vikings as they’re getting 81% of the tickets and 73% of the handle, so this is a contrarian spot to fade Minnesota as the Jets look to hand them their first loss SU and ATS.

Best Bet: Jets +2.5

Carolina Panthers @ Chicago Bears

• Opening Line: Bears -4 / Total: 42
• Current Line: Bears -4 / Total: 41.5
• Smoove Line: Bears -1.38 / Total: 45.80

Over the last couple of weeks since Andy Dalton has been named the starter in Carolina, the Panthers' offense has looked respectable as they’re averaging 406 YPG, 30 PPG and have a 13.87 YPPO. Caleb Williams didn’t do much last week in their win over the Rams, but the best thing he did was not turn the ball over, and as long as he plays a clean game, this Bears offense should be able to move the ball on this Panthers defense. This line has not moved from its opening number of 4, and the Panthers are getting 48% of the tickets and 49% of the handle. My model made this line 1.38, so there’s some value in backing Carolina.

Lean: Panthers +4

Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals

• Opening Line: Ravens -1 / Total: 47
• Current Line: Ravens -2.5 / Total: 49
• Smoove Line: Bengals -0.11 / Total: 47.65

The Ravens are coming off their most impressive win of the season as they beat the Bills on Sunday Night Football by 25 points as 2.5-point favorites. The Bengals are coming off a double-digit win over the Panthers, with Tee Higgins making his season debut, giving Joe Burrow his top two targets to throw to, and he took advantage as he went 22/31 232 yards and 2 TDs. Burrow should be able to take advantage of this Ravens' pass defense as he ranks 6th in pass yards, 6th in completion percentage and 12th in YPA compared to this Ravens secondary that ranks 29th in pass yards allowed, 14th in completion percentage allowed and 21st in Yards Per Attempt allowed. The public loves Baltimore as they’re getting 79% of the tickets and 74% of the handle, but my model made this line more of a PK at 0.11, so grab the points with the home team.

Best Bet: Bengals +2.5

Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans

• Opening Line: Texans -1 / Total: 47
• Current Line: Bills -1 / Total: 47.5
• Smoove Line: Bills -1.84 / Total: 44.40

This is a revenge game for Stefon Diggs, as he was traded from the Bills to the Texans this summer. Still, the Bills' secondary has improved with their moves in the offseason as they rank 11% in completion percentage allowed, 3rd in Yards Per Attempt and 5th in QB rating allowed. Houston also has one of the league's best defenses as they rank 7th in YPP allowed, so there’s some value in playing the total to the under, as my model made this total 44.40. Since 2022, Houston has been 13-7 (65%) to the under at home, and Buffalo has been 14-4 (77.8%) to the under on the road.

Like: Bills/Texans under 47.5

Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars

• Opening Line: Jaguars -2.5 / Total: 46
• Current Line: Jaguars -3 / Total: 46
• Smoove Line: Jaguars -0.38 / Total: 39.20

The Jaguars are 0-9 SU in Trevor Lawrence’s last nine starts, they’ve started this season 0-4 with losses to the Browns and Dolphins and I have them rated as the worst team in the NFL. Plus, they could be on the verge of firing Doug Pederson if they lose this game and drop to 0-5, so I don’t see how they can be laying points to anyone at this point. They’re currently getting 44% of the tickets and 54% of the handle, but my model made this line more of a PK at 0.38. The Colts offense should have no problems moving the ball as they rank 5th in YPP, and the Jaguars defense ranks 29th in YPP allowed.

Best Bet: Colts +3

Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots

• Opening Line: Patriots -2 / Total: 36.5
• Current Line: Patriots -1 / Total: 36.5
• Smoove Line: Patriots -8.20 / Total: 34.10

The Dolphins season may have felt like it went down when Tua Tagovailoa went down with his injury, but the respected money coming in on this game is backing Miami to have a bounce-back performance from Monday Night Football. This line opened Patriots -2, and they’re currently getting 64% of the tickets and 63% of the handle, but this line has dropped to -1. Either way, I still wouldn’t expect a ton of scoring in this matchup as the total is set at 36.5, with 62% of the tickets and 85% of the handle coming in on the under, and my model made this total 34.10.

Like: Dolphins/Patriots under 36.5

Cleveland Browns @ Washington Commanders

• Opening Line: Commanders -1 / Total: 42.5
• Current Line: Commanders -3.5 / Total: 43.5
• Smoove Line: Commanders -6.54 / Total: 44.42

The Commanders can be this year's version of the Houston Texans from last year. Washington hired a new head coach with a defensive background in Dan Quinn this offseason. They also hired a new offensive coordinator to develop quarterbacks in Kliff Kingsbury, and the final piece of the puzzle was drafting Heisman trophy winner Jayden Daniels. Washington also had some talent on the roster, and these additions in the offseason have led them to an impressive 3-1 SU and ATS record, and they’re one of the three teams averaging 30 PPG or more.

Like: Commanders -3.5

Las Vegas Raiders @ Denver Broncos

• Opening Line: Broncos -1 / Total: 39
• Current Line: Broncos -2.5 / Total: 36
• Smoove Line: Broncos -1.32 / Total: 33.90

Both teams are coming off impressive wins as the Raiders beat the Browns by 4 points as 2.5-point home underdogs without their two best players, and the Broncos went on the road and pulled off the upset against the Jets by 1 point as 8.5-point road underdogs in a terrible weather game. The Raiders are expected to be without DeVante Adams again, and he’s on the verge of being traded. This total opened at 39, and currently, 44% of the tickets and 50% of the handle is backing the over, but the total has dropped to 36, and my model made this total 33.90. Since 2022, the Broncos are 11-7 (61.1%) to the under at home, and the Raiders are 12-7 (63.2%) to the under on the road.

Like: Raiders/Broncos under 36

Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers

• Opening Line: 49ers -7 / Total: 47.5
• Current Line: 49ers -7 / Total: 49.5
• Smoove Line: 49ers -9 / Total: 48.04

Brock Purdy has made 32 career starts for the 49ers, including playoffs, and 18 times the 49ers offense has scored 30 points or more (56.2%). He’s also made three career starts against the Cardinals, going 3-0 with a 77% completion percentage and an 8:0 touchdown to interception ratio. Also, in those three starts, the 49ers are averaging 39.3 PPG, and the 49ers team total is just 28.5.

Like: 49ers Team Total over 28.5 -110

Green Bay Packers @ Los Angeles Rams

• Opening Line: Packers -2.5 / Total: 46
• Current Line: Packers -3 / Total: 49
• Smoove Line: Packers -3.14 / Total: 46.76

Both teams are coming off losses last week and looking to bounce back as the Packers lost at home to the Vikings by 2 points as 2.5-point favorites, and the Rams lost on the road to the Bears by 6 points as 3-point road underdogs. This is the Rams' first season without Aaron Donald, and they have one of the worst defenses in the league as they rank 31st in YPG, 32nd in YPP and 32nd in Yards Per Attempt, and this Packers offense ranks 3rd in YPG, 3rd in YPP and 6th in Yards Per Attempt. Also, there shouldn’t be much of a home-field advantage as the Packers fans travel well and should take over SoFi stadium.

Like: Packers -3

New York Giants @ Seattle Seahawks

• Opening Line: Seahawks -6 / Total: 42
• Current Line: Seahawks -6.5 / Total: 43.5
• Smoove Line: Seahawks -7.28 / Total: 40.36

Both teams will look to bounce back in the win column after coming off losses, but the Seahawks are the better team with an offense that consistently moves the ball and puts up points, and the Giants' offense ranks 26th in YPP (4.9) and 31st in YPPO (19.8). This line opened at Seahawks -6, and they’re currently getting 72% of the tickets and 67% of the handle, moving the line to -6.5 and making this a heavy public play for Seattle, but my model made this line -7.28.

Lean: Seahawks -6.5

Dallas Cowboys @ Pittsburgh Steelers

• Opening Line: Cowboys -1 / Total: 42
• Current Line: Steelers -2.5 / Total: 44
• Smoove Line: Steelers -3.95 / Total: 40.25

The Cowboys will be without Brandon Cooks, Micah Parsons, and DeMarcus Lawrence, and they’ll have to go on the road and face the Steelers in a hostile environment as they are coming off a loss and looking to bounce back, so this is a tough spot for Dallas. The Cowboys' defense has struggled to defend the run as they rank 27th in YPG (145.8) and 21st in YPC (4.6), so expect to see a heavy dose of the run game from Pittsburgh as they rank 10th in YPG (128.5). Plus, expect to see Justin Fields involved in the run game as well. The Cowboys are currently getting 64% of the tickets but just 50% of the handle moving this line from Cowboys -1 to Steelers -2.5, indicating some sharp reverse line movement for Pittsburgh, and my model made this line Steelers -3.95.

Best Bet: Steelers -2.5

New Orleans Saints @ Kansas City Chiefs

• Opening Line: Chiefs -6.5 / Total: 45
• Current Line: Chiefs -5.5 / Total: 43.5
• Smoove Line: Chiefs -1.14 / Total: 44.38

The Chiefs are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS, but they’ve benefited from some fortunate late-game calls against the Bengals and Falcons. The Saints got off to an impressive start but have dropped their last two games and will be looking to get back in the win column, led by their offense with Derek Carr. In 2022, Carr went to Kansas City as the starting QB of the Raiders and lost by 1 point as 6.5-point underdogs, and this Saints team is much better than that Raiders team. This line opened at Chiefs -6.5, and they’re getting 36% of the tickets and 57% of the handle, but this line has dropped to 5.5. The Saints are also getting 28% of the money line tickets, and 54% of the money line handle moving money line from +225 to +210, so expect the Saints to have the Chiefs their first loss of the season.

Best Bet: Saints +5.5

Justin 'Smoove' Everett (@Smoove_702)

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