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NFL Week 4 Opening Line Report: How the Market Has Moved After Week 3
Each week, in this article, we will assess how the betting market has adjusted its expectations for the upcoming week’s games after digesting the latest batch of data from Thursday’s and Sunday’s finals. By comparing the lookahead lines with the current odds, we’ll break down how each team's performance and key injuries might have influenced the market's perception and the NFL betting landscape.
Please note: Lines are from the home team's perspective and rounded to the nearest half-point, except for when the line is near 3.
Thursday
DAL @ NYG (8:15 ET / Amazon)
- Final Look Ahead Line (Saturday night): DAL -6.5
- World Opener (Sunday afternoon): DAL -4.5
- Current (Monday 2PM ET): DAL -4.5
The Cowboys have given up 464 rushing yards in the past two games. Mike Zimmer's defense looks soft, and the Cowboys have not gotten the beneficial takeaways that defined their defense over the past two seasons. On the other side, Daniel Jones has strung together his best two-game stretch by far since signing his contract extension ahead of the 2023 season. Jones has thrown more touchdowns to standout rookie WR Malik Nabors (3) than he had to all receivers combined in his previous 7 outings for NYG (2). Seemingly the sole catalyst for productive offense for the G-Men, Nabors is now the favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at +220.
Verdict: Cowboys downgraded 1-point, Giants upgraded 1-point.
Sunday
NOR @ ATL (1PM ET / FOX)
- Final Look Ahead Line: ATL -1.5
- World Opener: ATL PK'em
- Current: ATL -1.5
The Saints' high-flying offense came to a crashing halt against the Eagles, and despite their defense capitalizing on mistakes, missed field goals, and turnovers from Philly, they still allowed a gargantuan 460 yards of total offense to a struggling Jalen Hurts, who was without his best weapon in AJ Brown. Saints QB Derek Carr came crashing back to earth as well, with under 150 yards passing and a woeful game-ending pick. Meanwhile, the Falcons played essentially up to expectations against the Chiefs, losing due to questionable calls and poor execution down the stretch. The two results beg the question: why haven't the Saints been downgraded relative to the Falcons? Instead, the Falcons were even downgraded when the market initially re-opened at Pick'em. It's a puzzler for sure—my only thought is the Falcons’ boneheaded final two drives vs. the Chiefs left a much more sour taste in the mouths of bettors than the 1 PM failures of the Saints.
Verdict: Saints downgraded ½ point, Falcons downgraded ½ point.
PIT @ IND (1PM ET / CBS)
- Final Look Ahead Line: IND -1
- World Opener: IND +1
- Current: IND +1.5
The Colts were one of 6 winless teams to get off the schnide on Sunday as they held the Bears' offense to only 9 points despite allowing almost 400 yards of offense. For the third game in a row, the Colts had the ball for under 25 minutes. On the other hand, the Steelers' defense continues to keep Pittsburgh undefeated, looking like the best unit in the NFL, and will no doubt present the biggest challenge so far in Anthony Richardson's young career.
Verdict: Steelers upgraded 1.5 points.
JAX @ HOU (1 PM ET / CBS)
- Final Look Ahead Line: HOU -5
- World Opener: HOU -4
- Current: HOU -4.5
The Texans got mollywhopped by the Vikings, as Minnesota's defense took advantage of Houston's lack of a running game by blitzing and frustrating CJ Stroud throughout. The Texans hope to get their free-agent RB Joe Mixon back into the fold in Week 4 and may take some solace that the Vikings' defense has embarrassed not only them but every offense they have played so far in 2024.
Verdict: Texans downgraded ½ point, *Jaguars to play on MNF.
MIN @ GB (1PM ET / CBS)
- Look Ahead Opener: GB +2.5
- Final Look Ahead Line: GB -3
- World Opener: GB -2.5
- Current: GB -2.5 (-120)
Prior to Sunday's action, the market moved heavily on this game as it perceives that the Packers will be upgrading from backup Malik Willis back to the highest-paid QB in the league, Jordan Love. The market moved close to 6.5 points on this perception, taking the Packers from 2.5-point underdogs on the look-ahead line early last week to 3-point favorites on Saturday night. On Sunday, while both teams won impressively in Week 3, the market took bigger note of the Vikings dominating a playoff contender for the second week in a row, upgrading Minnesota to be on the right side of the critical NFL 3-point spread.
Verdict (change after week 3 games only): Vikings upgraded 1 point, Packers upgraded ½ point.
CIN @ CAR (1 PM ET / FOX)
- Final Look Ahead Line: CAR +7
- World Opener: CAR +6
- Current: CAR +5
The Panthers have been massively upgraded from last week's expectation after Andy Dalton and the Panthers offense dominated in the Red Riffle's first game as the starter. Carolina, with Dalton at the helm, scored more points than in the Panthers' had in their last 4 games combined with Bryce Young at QB. The Panthers' O-line and skill position improvements were finally evident with a more confident and better QB dictating play. The Panthers' defense also looked reinvigorated by the QB switch, playing their best game of the season vs. the Raiders. Dalton now welcomes his old team to his building as he seeks to keep this momentum going.
Verdict: Panthers upgraded 2 points, *Bengals to play on MNF.
LAR @ CHI (1 PM ET / FOX)
- Final Look Ahead Line: CHI -3.5
- World Opener: CHI -2.5
- Current: CHI -2.5
The Bears' rookie QB Caleb Williams had his best game as a pro vs. the Colts in Week 3—which isn't saying much. Despite racking up a career-high 363 passing yards, Williams made several critical mistakes that kept Chicago off the scoreboard for much of the game. The Bears' running game continues to look like the worst in the NFL, lending credence to Bill Belichick's criticism of their team construction, opting to go after high-profile skill position players rather than investing in their offensive line over the last several years. On the other side, the Rams capitalized on several 49ers special teams miscues to pull off an improbable come-from-behind win in Week 3. Even as the Rams' offensive injuries have mounted, their QB Matthew Stafford has proven amenable to excel with any number of Rams' skill position combinations, efficiently dicing up the 49ers' defense in the 4th quarter of Week 3.
Verdict: Rams upgraded 1 point, Bears downgraded 1 point.
DEN @ NYJ (1 PM ET / CBS)
- Final Look Ahead Line: NYJ -8
- World Opener: NYJ -7.5
- Current: NYJ -7
Sean Payton did it again—improving to an incredible 12-5 SU & ATS in Week 3 in his career. Seemingly a proponent of using the first two weeks of the season as an extended preseason, the Broncos' offense looked much improved in Week 3, as Bo Nix used his arm and legs to terrorize a banged-up Bucs defense throughout the day. The Broncos' pass defense remains elite, allowing only 133 YPG to opposing teams through the air. For their part, the NY Jets took care of business in an excellent spot vs. the Pats on Thursday, but on balance, the market has upgraded Bo Nix and the Broncos significantly more than it has the Jets.
Verdict: Broncos upgraded 1.5 points, Jets upgraded ½ point.
PHI @ TB (4:05PM ET / FOX)
- Final Look Ahead Line: PK
- World Opener: TB +1.5
- Current: TB +2.5
The Eagles' defense, by many metrics, was a bottom 3 unit through two weeks of the season. Then they went to the home of the hottest offense in the NFL through two weeks and totally stifled them throughout. After the Saints had scored on 15 of 17 possessions to start the season, Vic Fangio's bunch held them scoreless for 6 possessions in a row. Despite the Eagles' turnovers keeping the Saints around, Philadelphia can walk away with much more confidence in their total team heading down to Tampa, with playoff revenge on their minds. The Bucs' offense fell off a cliff in Week 3 vs. the Broncos, with Baker Mayfield arguably having his worst game as a Buccaneer.
Verdict: Eagles upgraded 1 point, Buccaneers downgraded 1 point.
WAS @ ARI (4:05PM ET / FOX)
- Final Look Ahead Line: ARI -5
- World Opener: ARI -5.5
- Current: ARI -5.5
While the Cardinals' offense took a major step back in their Week 3 loss to the Lions, their defense held Detroit largely in check, making the market largely ignore the result as they prepare to host the Commanders, who take on the Bengals on MNF.
Verdict: No major change.
NE @ SF (4:05 PM ET / FOX)
- Final Look Ahead Line (Thurday): SF -9.5
- World Opener: SF -10.5
- Current: SF -10.5
As bad as it is for a supposed Super Bowl contender to start 1-2, and as mad as 49ers fans are about blowing a double-digit lead in the final minutes vs. a division rival, the 49ers can take solace in the fact that Brock Purdy is the real deal. Sans many of his best weapons, Purdy played one of the best games of his career, moving nimbly in the pocket and finding all sorts of answers as the 49ers racked up 434 yards in LA. Despite key drops, missed defensive assignments, and poor special team plays all combining for a disastrous fourth quarter in LA, the market has not downgraded San Francisco much, if at all, at least for this game. The market reacted far more heavily to the Patriots' Thursday night loss, as the Patriots' problems seem far less fixable.
Verdict: Patriots downgraded 1 point.
CLE @ LV (4:25 PM ET / CBS)
- Final Look Ahead Line: LV +1
- World Opener: LV +1.5
- Current: LV PK
The market has oscillated here as both teams lost in embarrassing fashion in Week 3, and bettors tried to decide which result was worse. The Browns may need a QB change despite their unprecedented investment in Deshaun Watson; it's not working out. The Raiders tried a QB change in the latter stages of their lopsided home loss to the Panthers, but it hardly made a difference.
Verdict: Browns downgraded 1 point, Raiders downgraded 1 point.
KC @ LAC (4:25 PM ET / CBS)
- Final Look Ahead Line: LAC +3.5
- World Opener: LAC +9.5
- Current: LAC +7
No amount of results-based adjustment can stack up to the Chargers' major downgrade at QB should Justin Herbert remain out for Week 4 after being knocked out by the Steelers in the second half of LA's game at Pittsburgh. After a massive 6-point downgrade when it was believed Herbert would be out, the market upgraded LA after X-rays on his ankle injury were negative on Monday. Still, Herbert is far from certain to play. Like it was in Week 3 as Herbert battled an ankle injury, this spread will be a reflection of Herbert's status up until kickoff.
Verdict: Chargers downgraded 4-points as the market awaits more info on Herbert.
SNF: BUF @ BAL (8:20 PM ET / NBC)
- Final Look Ahead Line: BAL -1.5
- World Opener: BAL -2.5
- Current: BAL -2.5 (MNF pending*)
The Ravens' best pass protection scheme might be having the most dominant two-headed rushing attack in the NFL. Baltimore amassed 274 yards rushing vs. the Cowboys as Derrick Henry has been gaining steam each game, nearly doubling his rushing total each of the past two weeks. Only needing to throw 15 times, Lamar Jackson had a nearly immaculate game in Dallas, posting a 97 QBR and 269 total yards. While the Ravens' defense looks a far cry from their 2023 dominance, the Ravens still present an incredibly tough out for opponents each week.
Verdict: Ravens upgraded 1 point, Bills to play on MNF*.
MNF: TEN @ MIA (7:30 PM ET / ESPN)
- Final Look Ahead Line: MIA -2.5
- World Opener: MIA PK'em
- Current: MIA PK'em
The Titans fell to 0-3 SU & ATS as their QB Will Levis is now known as the guy who makes a memeably horrific play each and every week. On balance, the Dolphins were downgraded 2 points, as their offense completely vanished in Seattle without Tua under center. Worse, their backup QB Skylar Thompson is now banged up, leaving them with 3rd stringer Tim Boyle, who was taken off the practice squad just one day before he was thrust into action. While Miami may be scouring the free agent market, their hopes for success in the 2024 season are rapidly declining.
Verdict: Titans downgraded 1 point, Dolphins downgraded 3 points.
MNF: SEA @ DET (8:15 PM ET / ABC)
- Final Look Ahead: DET -4.5
- World Opener: DET -4
- Current: DET -4.5
The Lions will take a road win at Arizona to get above .500, but their offense has to be a concern. Newly paid Jared Goff has now played three subpar games in a row to start the season, posting a sub-50 QBR in each. The undefeated Seahawks, on the other hand, have looked dominant defensively, holding teams to 130 yards passing per game and posting a league-leading pressure rate on opponent dropbacks. The market, however, is still somewhat skeptical of Seattle, not budging the line from its pre-Week 3 expectations.
Verdict: No change.
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