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Mackenzie Rivers, Chris Dell and Smoove deliver you the most actional analysis and best bets on NFL sides, totals, teasers and props for the '24 season.
NFL WEEK 18 MATCHUPS PREVIEW
Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens
- Opening Line: Ravens -16 / Total: 42.5
- Current Line: Ravens -20 / Total: 41
- Smoove Line: Ravens -19.20 / Total: 40.32
NFL Week 18 is all about looking to back teams with something to play for, looking to fade teams with nothing to play for, and looking toward their offseason. This game fits that criteria, with the Ravens needing a win to secure the AFC North and the 3rd seed in the playoffs and the Browns looking to lock in a top 3 pick in the upcoming draft. My model made this line Ravens -19.20, so there’s no value laying the huge number for the game, but I would look to back Baltimore in the 1st half. They’re currently laying 11.5/12, and I think they’ll be motivated to get this game over with early and either sit most of their starters in the 2nd half or 4th quarter.
Like: Ravens 1H -11.5
Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots
- Opening Line: Bills -5.5 / Total: 44
- Current Line: Bills -3 / Total: 36.5
- Smoove Line: Bills -11 / Total: 40.14
It’s been reported that Josh Allen will likely play this game just to keep the streak of consecutive starts going and be pulled rather early from this game. Still, I think Buffalo is deep enough to get a comfortable win and cover against a Patriots team that could pull Drake Maye and play Joe Milton for most of this game as they look to lock in the 1st overall pick in the draft and improve their roster for next season. Over the last two seasons, Mitchell Trubisky has made nine starts, and he’s in a much better system in Buffalo and will be motivated to have a good outing.
Best Bet: Bills -3
Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers
- Opening Line: Packers -10 / Total: 42.5
- Current Line: Packers -10 / Total: 41
- Smoove Line: Packers -17.57 / Total: 40.49
Green Bay is motivated to win this game to avoid the 7th seed to play the Eagles, so they’ll be playing their starters against a hated division rival. Green Bay is 10-0 SU over the last 10 matchups with Chicago but just 1-9 ATS, as they won by 1 point back on 11/17, so they’ll be motivated to get a comfortable win heading into the playoffs.
Best Bet: Packers -10
Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons
- Opening Line: Falcons -7.5 / Total: 47.5
- Current Line: Falcons -9 / Total: 48
- Smoove Line: Falcons -16.79 / Total: 49.70
Since Michael Penix has taken over the starting quarterback job from Kirk Cousins, the offense has been more efficient, scoring points as they’ve scored 34 and 24 points in back-to-back weeks and were able to pull off the win in Washington to control their own playoff futures. Now they’ll need a little help to get in with a win over Carolina and for the Saints to pull off the upset over Tampa Bay, which will be difficult. Whether they win or lose, Atlanta has a bright spot at quarterback with Michael Penix Jr., and he’ll be in prime position to give this home crowd something to look forward to by putting on a show. Carolina has shown some good efforts since Bryce Young returned from being benched, but they’re ready for their season to be over and look forward to the draft, so I don’t expect much of an effort from them in this spot. I like Atlanta winning big.
Best Bet: Falcons -9.5
Washington Commanders @ Dallas Cowboys
- Opening Line: Commanders -2.5 / Total: 44.5
- Current Line: Commanders -6.5 / Total: 44
- Smoove Line: Commanders -9.96 / Total: 50.52
With a win here, Washington avoids the 7th seed and goes on the road to face the Eagles in the playoffs, which Dan Quinn has stated he wants to do, so that will be the motivation for Washington in this matchup. Plus, this could be a potential revenge spot as Dallas went to Washington on 11/24 and pulled off the upset as 11-point underdogs, so I’m expecting the Commanders to show up to Dallas and get a nice win and cover to shut the lights out in Jerry’s world until next season.
Best Bet: Commanders -6.5
Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets
- Opening Line: Dolphins -2.5 / Total: 41.5
- Current Line: Dolphins PK / Total: 39
- Smoove Line: Jets -3.30 / Total: 38.36
This has been a disappointing season for both teams, but for different reasons, as Tua Tagovailoa missed the bulk of the season with an injury for the Dolphins, and Aaron Rodgers did not live up to expectations for New York after missing all of last season. It’s been reported that Rodgers won’t be back with New York next season as some players in the locker room are ready for him to go, and Rodgers has stated that this could be his last game in the NFL. The two units that haven’t disappointed are both teams' defensive units. New York’s defense was obviously much better before they fired Robert Saleh, but Miami, under Ty Huntley, shouldn’t be able to expose this Jets defense. At the same time, I don’t expect Rodgers to do much against Miami’s defensive unit. Play under the total.
Like: Dolphins/Jets under 39
Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos
- Opening Line: Broncos -7 / Total: 39.5
- Current Line: Broncos -10.5 / Total: 40
- Smoove Line: Broncos -3.75 / Total: 36.86
Kansas City has already wrapped up the 1st seed and the AFC West Division, so they’ll do the smart thing and rest a bunch of their key players while Denver is in the “win and you’re in” scenario for the playoffs. Oddsmakers are making you pay a heavy premium if you want to back Denver, laying 10.5/11 points as my model only made this line Broncos -3.75. Carson Wentz has started nine games over the last two years, and he’s in a much better system in Kansas City, so I would look for Wentz and the backups to put up more of a fight than this line would suggest.
Lean: Chiefs +10.5
Los Angeles Chargers @ Las Vegas Raiders
- Opening Line: Chargers -3.5 / Total: 42.5
- Current Line: Chargers -4.5 / Total: 41.5
- Smoove Line: Chargers -8.78 / Total: 39.43
Jim Harbaugh would like to win this game and potentially avoid landing in the 6th seed to play his brother John in Baltimore, so expect the Chargers starters to play most of this game to secure a win. Las Vegas, for whatever weird reason, has decided to finish their season with some wins and ruin their draft pick and potential chance of landing a future quarterback in this upcoming draft without needing to trade up, so I would expect them to finish their season with a high level of focus and effort against a division opponent. Los Angeles not usually an explosive offense coming off a 40 point performance against the Patriots I would expect them to regress and not look to do much so I like the under.
Like: Chargers/Raiders under 41.5
Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions
- Opening Line: Lions -3 / Total: 51.5
- Current Line: Lions -3 / Total: 56
- Smoove Line: Lions -5 / Total: 52.27
Detroit has suffered a cluster of injuries to their defense since Thanksgiving, but they’ve won and covered their last two games, so I think they’ve learned to adapt and are ready to make a push to the Super Bowl. That would start with winning this matchup with the Vikings that would lock them in as winners of the NFC North Division but, more importantly, the 1st seed in the NFC and a 1st round bye. In their first matchup on 10/20, Detroit went on the road to Minnesota and won by 2 points as 1-point underdogs. I think the Lions' offense is just too explosive, and their defense will do just enough to get enough separation for a win and cover.
Best Bet: Lions -3
Justin 'Smoove' Everett (@Smoove_702)
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Our team of professional bettors and handicappers, led by Mackenzie Rivers, Chris Dell and Smoove, deliver real-time best bets and player props, all in one place, through the end of the Super Bowl each season.