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Mackenzie Rivers, Chris Dell and Smoove deliver you the most actional analysis and best bets on NFL sides, totals, teasers and props for the '24 season.
NFL WEEK 16 MATCHUPS PREVIEW
Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals
- Opening Line: Bengals -6 / Total: 50
- Current Line: Bengals -7.5 / Total: 47
- Smoove Line: Bengals -10.82 / Total: 38.3
The Browns have decided to bench Jameis Winston because of the turnovers and move on to Dorian Thompson-Robinson, which I don’t see making much difference. If the Bengals' defense was just average, they would have a better record, and Joe Burrow would be in the MVP conversation with the season he’s been having. He’s been on fire in his last five games, which has his props set at a premium, and my model doesn’t show much value in them except for one. Over his previous five games, Burrow has thrown 16 touchdowns and has averaged 3.2 touchdown passes per game. His touchdown prop is set at just 2.5 with a plus-money price, so it’s worth a shot to ride the hot hand of Joe Burrow to throw three or more touchdowns for the sixth game in a row.
Like: Burrow over 2.5 touchdowns (+165)
Arizona Cardinals @ Carolina Panthers
- Opening Line: Cardinals -3.5 / Total: 46.5
- Current Line: Cardinals -4.5 / Total: 47
- Smoove Line: Cardinals -5.40 / Total: 45.45
Arizona is coming off a 13-point win over the Patriots, and Carolina is coming off a blowout loss to the Cowboys after closing as a favorite for the first time in over two years. Carolina is dead last in defending the run, ranking last in YPG, YPC, and attempts. Over their last three games, the lead back they’ve faced has gone over 120+ yards on the ground, and now they’ll face the Cardinals, who have another top-10 rush attack led by James Conner.
Best Bet: Cardinals -4.5
New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills
- Opening Line: Bills -13.5 / Total: 46.5
- Current Line: Bills -14 / Total: 46.5
- Smoove Line: Bills -15.36 / Total: 49.86
Over their last eight games, Buffalo has scored 30 points or more over their previous eight games, and over their last two games, they’ve scored 40 or more. The one issue that the Bills can correct is their defense, as they’ve allowed 40 points or more over the last 2 weeks, but this week, they’ll face the Patriots, who rank 2nd to last in PPG at 17 for the season and over their previous five games they’re averaging less than 20 PPG. Josh Allen is the lead candidate for the MVP at -900 at Draft Kings, and this is another matchup where he can pad his stats. My model projects a Bills win by 15.36 points, so there’s still value in laying the big number.
Best Bet: Bills -14
Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Commanders
- Opening Line: Eagles -3 / Total: 47.5
- Current Line: Eagles -3.5 / Total: 45
- Smoove Line: Eagles -4.5 / Total: 46.17
In the first matchup, the Eagles shut down this Washington offense, holding them under 20 points and Daniels under 200 yards passing. Last week, the Eagles showed they can still be explosive in the passing game, led by AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith. With all the injuries the Lions have recently suffered, I think the Eagles are the best team in the NFC and will push to grab the first seed and earn a bye for the playoffs.
Best Bet: Eagles -3.5
Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts
- Opening Line: Colts -4 / Total: 43
- Current Line: Colts -3.5 / Total: 42.5
- Smoove Line: Colts -4.03 / Total: 39.31
When these teams met on 10/13, they combined to score just 37 points, with a closing total of 41.5. This matchup's total opened at 43 and is currently at 42.5. Tennessee has benched Will Levis for the second time, and Anthony Richardson hasn’t been much better. The Colts team total is set at 23.5, and they’ve scored more than 23 points three times in their last 10 games.
Like: Colts TT under 23.5 (-122)
Los Angeles Rams @ New York Jets
- Opening Line: Rams -3 / Total: 46.5
- Current Line: Rams -3 / Total: 46.5
- Smoove Line: Jets -1.56 / Total: 44.74
Los Angeles is 4-1 SU and ATS over their last five games and took over the lead in the NFC West division, but I think this will be a tough spot as they are a West Coast team traveling to play an early game on the east coast in weather conditions that should impact their passing game. Over their last five games, the Jets have scored 22 points or more 3 times, and their team total is just 21.5. Even though they’ve been eliminated from the playoffs, their veteran players are still playing, looking to end the season on a high note, so there’s value in playing this total over, as my model projects their total at 23.15.
Like: Jets TT over 21.5 (-105)
Minnesota Vikings @ Seattle Seahawks
- Opening Line: Vikings -1.5 / Total: 45.5
- Current Line: Vikings -3 / Total: 43
- Smoove Line: Vikings -3.70 / Total: 41.60
It’s a strong possibility Geno Smith could play this game with limited mobility as the line movement would indicate opening Vikings -1.5 to -3, and that could kill Seattle's chances of making the playoffs. Minnesota also has motivation to win the NFC North with all the injuries the Lions are currently dealing with. My model projects a win for Minnesota by 3.70, and whether Smith plays or not, he’ll be limited while dealing with this Brian Flores defense that keeps pressure on opposing quarterbacks and offensive lines as they rank 5th in sacks.
Like: Vikings -3
San Francisco 49ers @ Miami Dolphins
- Opening Line: Dolphins -1.5 / Total: 49
- Current Line: PK / Total: 44.5
- Smoove Line: Dolphins -0.67 / Total: 43.55
This total dropped 4.5 points on the news that Tua Tagovailoa was limited in practice with a sore hip. Also, Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddle didn’t practice, so if those guys don’t play, this total could drop even more. My model projected this total at 43.55, and the 49ers will have some impactful pieces on defense available to play, so if you like the under, I would play it now while there’s still some value.
Like: 49ers/Dolphins under 44.5
Tampa Bay Bucs @ Dallas Cowboys
- Opening Line: Bucs -4 / Total: 47.5
- Current Line: Bucs -4 / Total: 48.5
- Smoove Line: Bucs -5.1 / Total: 50.31
Tampa Bay is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS over its last four games. It has scored 25+ points in every game and held its opponents under 20 points in three of those games. On defense, Tampa Bay is getting healthier. Dallas is 2-1 SU over its last three games, but it has faced some bottom-five defenses, and Cooper Rush will have a tough time against the Bucs' front seven.
Best Bet: Bucs -4
New Orleans Saints @ Green Bay Packers
- Opening Line: Packers -13.5 / Total: 42
- Current Line: Packers -14 / Total: 43
- Smoove Line: Packers -15.60 / Total: 45.67
Green Bay has one of the best home-field advantages in the league, and it will be in full effect Monday Night. New Orleans is a dome team going on the road, playing in cold temperatures and snow with a backup quarterback against this top-10 defense that creates turnovers. New Orleans also has one of the worst defenses and allows its opponents 6.0 YPP, so I think Green Bay gets a comfortable win and covers.
Best Bet: Packers -14
Justin 'Smoove' Everett (@Smoove_702)
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