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Mackenzie Rivers, Chris Dell and Smoove deliver you the most actional analysis and best bets on NFL sides, totals, teasers and props for the '24 season.
NFL WEEK 15 MATCHUPS PREVIEW
Miami Dolphins @ Houston Texans
- Opening Line: Texans -2 / Total: 46.5
- Current Line: Texans -3 / Total: 46.5
- Smoove Line: Texans -4.47 / Total: 44.47
Miami is coming off a big overtime win last week to keep its season alive, while Houston is coming off its bye week. I would expect a potential letdown from Miami coming off a big win against a divisional opponent, and Houston’s offense will have a tough task facing this Miami defense. My model shows value on the total going under, as I have it at 44.47, and you can play under 46.5/47.
Like: Dolphins/Texans under 46.5
New York Jets @ Jacksonville Jaguars
- Opening Line: Jets -3 / Total: 40
- Current Line: Jets -3.5 / Total: 40.5
- Smoove Line: Jets -0.70 / Total: 43.62
New York was eliminated from playoff contention last week with their overtime loss to the Dolphins. Still, there’s been no news of a quarterback change, so as long as Aaron Rodgers is suiting up, he will have a significant edge against this Jaguars secondary. He’s coming off his first 300-yard game in a while against one of the best pass defenses and now will face the worst pass defense in Jacksonville that ranks bottom three or worse in yards allowed, yards per attempt, and quarterback rating allowed. Now that the pressure is off New York being eliminated from the playoffs, I expect them to have some fun and play loose to close out the season.
Like: Rodgers passing yards over 234.5 (-115)
Baltimore Ravens @ New York Giants
- Opening Line: Ravens -12.5 / Total: 44.5
- Current Line: Ravens -16 / Total: 42.5
- Smoove Line: Ravens -9.87 / Total: 41.83
With the Giants making a quarterback change to Tommy DeVito from Drew Lock, this line has shot up to Ravens -16 on the road. If you want to play the Ravens, I would look to the first half rather than laying the worst number of 16 points on the road. Look for Baltimore to do just enough to get the win and get out of this game healthy. They’re one of the more dominant teams in the run game, while New York is one of the worst rush defenses. They would rather lock up a top 2 pick in the draft than come close to winning this game.
Like: Derrick Henry over 20.5 rush attempts -113
Kansas City Chiefs @ Cleveland Browns
- Opening Line: Chiefs -5.5 / Total: 46
- Current Line: Chiefs -4 / Total: 43.5
- Smoove Line: Chiefs -2.88 / Total: 44.70
Kansas City continues to find ways to win close games as they doinked the game-winning field goal off the crossbar last week to move to 12-1. They remain the number one rated luckiest teams this season, and Patrick Mahomes, who is not covering the spread when he’s laying more than a field goal, continues to be profitable. My model projects another close win for the Chiefs and does like them slightly going over their team total of 23.5 points, as I have them projected to score 23.79 points.
Lean: Chiefs TT over 23.5 (-115)
Dallas Cowboys @ Carolina Panthers
- Opening Line: Cowboys -1.5 / Total: 44
- Current Line: Cowboys +3 / Total: 43
- Smoove Line: Cowboys-1.97 / Total: 48.33
The last time the Carolina Panthers closed as a favorite was nearly 2 years ago. Give credit to Bryce Young, as he’s played well since returning from benign benched, but I still have the Cowboys as the better team even without Dak Prescott, and I don’t trust the Panthers' defense to be good enough to be a favorite. Dallas could also be motivated to get a win as they had a disappointing loss last week on Monday Night Football and don’t want to be the team that loses to the Panthers.
Best Bet: Cowboys +3
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Philadelphia Eagles
- Opening Line: Eagles -5 / Total: 45.5
- Current Line: Eagles -5.5 / Total: 43
- Smoove Line: Eagles -3.14 / Total: 45.60
I think the Steelers are one of the more underrated teams in the league, and it shows in this line: Eagles -5.5. My model projects a win for the Eagles but is closer to a field goal game. We know how profitable the Steelers have been under Mike Tomlin as an underdog, so I wouldn’t be surprised if they found a way to win this game outright. I see this being a tough defensive battle, and I like Pittsburgh to keep it close.
Best Bet: Steelers +5.5
Indianapolis Colts @ Denver Broncos
- Opening Line: Broncos -5 / Total: 43
- Current Line: Broncos -4 / Total: 44
- Smoove Line: Broncos -8.53 / Total: 45.03
The Denver Broncos have been the most profitable team so far, going 10-3 ATS, and there’s still a path for Bo Nix to win the Offensive Rookie of the Year. Over the last two weeks, Anthony Richardson has completed 44.6% of his passes against the Patriots and Lions, and now, he will have to face one of the best defenses in the league. According to my model, this is my favorite game of the week as I project a win for the Broncos by 8.53 points, and they’re only laying 4 points.
Best Bet: Broncos -4
New England Patriots @ Arizona Cardinals
- Opening Line: Cardinals -7 / Total: 44.5
- Current Line: Cardinals -6 / Total: 46
- Smoove Line: Cardinals -4.66 / Total: 40.72
Arizona is coming off a disappointing loss last week to division-rival Seattle Seahawks. The difference in that game ended up being Kyler Murray’s early turnovers, which they couldn’t overcome. James Conner still had a pretty good game with 18 carries and 90 yards, so look for them to establish the run early against a weak rush defense in the Patriots.
Like: James Conner over 17.5 rush attempts -110
Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings
- Opening Line: Vikings -6 / Total: 42.5
- Current Line: Vikings -7 / Total: 43.5
- Smoove Line: Vikings -7.70 / Total: 48.30
Minnesota took a 10-point lead into the 4th quarter in the first matchup between these teams in Chicago and needed overtime to get a 3-point win, so I expect them to play hard for the entire game and not give the Bears any hope. Sam Darnold is coming off one of the best games of his season with 347 yards, five touchdowns, and an 84.2 QBR, and he’s entered the MVP conversation for some people if he has another strong game against this Bears defense in a prime-time spot, those conversations will get louder. My model projects a Vikings win by 7.70, so anything less than 7 is a play for Minnesota.
Best Bet: Vikings -7
Justin 'Smoove' Everett (@Smoove_702)
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