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Mackenzie Rivers, Chris Dell and Smoove deliver you the most actional analysis and best bets on NFL sides, totals, teasers and props for the '24 season.
NFL WEEK 14 MATCHUPS PREVIEW
Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions
- Opening Line: Lions -6 / Total: 51.5
- Current Line: Lions -3.5 / Total: 51.5
- Smoove Line: Lions -5.41 / Total: 44.91
Detroit is winners of 10 straight games while going 8-2 ATS, and they’re coming off a divisional win over the Bears last week but also suffered a cluster of injuries on defense, which could explain the line dropping from 6 to -3.5, but the total remains the same. There were rumors of Jahmyr Gibbs being in the dog house after a photo he posted went viral with important information for the Lions on a whiteboard in the background, so this could mean more of a workload for David Montgomery. He averages 60 YPG on the ground, and Green Bay has a below-average rushing defense, so look for Detroit to control the clock and move the ball in the run game.
Like: David Montgomery over 58.5 yards -120
Atlanta Falcons @ Minnesota Vikings
- Opening Line: Vikings -4 / Total: 46
- Current Line: Vikings -5.5 / Total: 46
- Smoove Line: Vikings -8.50 / Total: 43.26
This is a revenge spot for Kirk Cousins returning to Minnesota, but the Vikings are doing just fine without him as they’re 10-2 SU, led by Sam Darnold, and still have a shot to win the division. Minnesota is a top-10 scoring offer,nse and Atlanta has a bottom-10 scoring defense. My model projects the Vikings scoring 25.88 points, so I will isolate the Vikings team total for this matchup.
Like: Vikings TT over 25.5 -118
New Orleans Saints @ New York Giants
- Opening Line: Saints -3.5 / Total: 40
- Current Line: Saints -4.5 / Total: 41
- Smoove Line: Saints -3.51 / Total: 40.29
If the season were to end today, the Giants would have a top 3 pick and would be in a position to draft the quarterback of the future, so I don’t see them winning any more games for the rest of the season to try and secure their current draft position or higher. New Orleans is coming off a tough loss last week to the Rams, making their playoff chances a lot more difficult, but they also have a top-10 pick currently. I don’t see much motivation to back any side for this matchup, as both teams have strong draft picks currently to help improve their rosters for next year.
Pass
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans
- Opening Line: Titans -3 / Total: 42.5
- Current Line: Titans -3.5 / Total: 39.5
- Smoove Line: Titans -4.76 / Total: 43.28
Jacksonville has placed Trevor Lawrence on the IR, which would likely end his season, and they’ll have Mac Jones as QB1 for the rest of the year. Tennessee is coming off a 23-point blowout loss to the Commanders last week, and with a new coach in his first year, I think Will Levis has the motivation to finish out the season strong so he could return as the starting quarterback for next season. Oddsmakers only made a half-point adjustment from Lawrence to Jones, but I think it should be more than that. Jones will have to face this tough Titans defense that is difficult to move the ball against, especially at home.
Best Bet: Titans -3.5
Las Vegas Raiders @ Tampa Bay Bucs
- Opening Line: Bucs -7.5 / Total: 45
- Current Line: Bucs -6.5 / Total: 46
- Smoove Line: Bucs -8.09 / Total: 47.13
The Raiders are another team looking towards the future. If the season ended today, they would have the 2nd pick in the draft and likely select a quarterback, so I don’t expect much motivation from the Raiders to win this game. Tampa Bay is coming off an overtime win against a division opponent and is still in the mix to win the NFC South division. The weather should be perfect, and their explosive offense should have their way with the Raiders defense. My model projects a Bucs win by 8.09 points, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Tampa Bay won by double digits.
Best Bet: Bucs -6.5
Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers
- Opening Line: Steelers -6.5 / Total: 40.5
- Current Line: Steelers -7 / Total: 43.5
- Smoove Line: Steelers -7.94 / Total: 43
This is a potential revenge spot for the Steelers, as they lost to the Browns as 3.5-point road favorites in week 12. The snowy weather played a big part in slowing down Pittsburgh's defense. I would expect this Steelers defense to bounce back from the last two weeks of giving up 31 PPG, as they only give up 18.7 for the season. My model projects them only giving up 19.15 to Cleveland.
Best Bet: Steelers -7
Carolina Panthers @ Philadelphia Eagles
- Opening Line: Eagles -13 / Total: 44.5
- Current Line: Eagles -12.5 / Total: 46
- Smoove Line: Eagles -12.36 / Total: 42.72
Bryce Young has played much better since returning to start at quarterback, going 4-1 ATS and nearly ending the undefeated season with the Chiefs. Still, now he’ll go up against the toughest defense in the league, which ranks 1st in opponent, YPP, opponent YPG, and 4th in scoring defense. This is also the kind of game that Saquon Barkley could strengthen his numbers for the MVP race, as the Panthers are the worst team against the run, and the Eagles have the best rushing attack.
Best Bet: Eagles -12.5
New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins
- Opening Line: Dolphins -6.5 / Total: 44.5
- Current Line: Dolphins -6 / Total: 45
- Smoove Line: Dolphins -2.42 / Total: 43.02
Aaron Rodgers and this Jets offense have been the biggest disappointments this season. Since Tua Tagovailoa returned to the lineup, the Dolphins are 3-3 SU and 4-2 ATS while still being in the hunt for the playoffs, even though it’s a long shot. Miami is 7-5 to the under, and my model projects this total at 43.02, so there’s value to playing the under, as both defenses should show up for a divisional matchup.
Like: Jets/Dolphins under 45
Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals
- Opening Line: Cardinals -2.5 / Total: 46
- Current Line: Cardinals -2.5 / Total: 44.5
- Smoove Line: Cardinals -3.40 / Total: 40.80
This is a potential revenge spot for the Cardinals as they lost to Seattle in week 12 on the road, and Kyler Murray was affected by the heavy rain as the Cardinals offense only scored 6 points and just 49 rushing yards for the 6th best rushing attack that averages 141.4 YPG on the ground. Arizona is coming off a tough 1-point loss to Minnesota last week, but they still have a shot of winning the NFC West division with a win over Seattle, and I made this line Cardinals -3.5 while my model projects a Cardinals win by 3.40 points.
Best Bet: Cardinals -2.5
Buffalo Bills @ Los Angeles Rams
- Opening Line: Bills -3.5 / Total: 48.5
- Current Line: Bills -4 / Total: 49.5
- Smoove Line: Bills -2.91 / Total: 46.15
This Bills defense is so much more difficult to stop when they have their running game going, led by James Cook. They’ll get to face this Rams defense, which has the fifth-worst rushing defense in the league. James Cook had his longest run of the season for 65 yards last week against the 49ers, but his longest rush is only 13.5 yards.
Like: James Cook longest over 13.5 (-120)
Chicago Bears @ San Francisco 49ers
- Opening Line: 49ers -6 / Total: 44
- Current Line: 49ers -3.5 / Total: 44
- Smoove Line: 49ers -0.22 / Total: 42.72
This just isn’t the 49ers' year as they continue to deal with a cluster of injuries and two players dealing with the sudden tragic deaths of their children. With all that has been going on with the 49ers, their offense still ranks 2nd in YPP, and their defense ranks 7th in YPP allowed. Their struggles have been finishing drives in the Redzone and all of the injuries on both sides of the ball, which is why this is a spot to pass.
Pass
Cincinnati Bengals @ Dallas Cowboys
- Opening Line: Bengals -6.5 / Total: 44.5
- Current Line: Bengals -5.5 / Total: 49.5
- Smoove Line: Bengals -1.30 / Total: 53.3
Joe Burrow has had an MVP-caliber season, but his defense and coaching have wasted a great season from this offense as they rank 9th in YPG, YPP, and 6th in PPG (27.9). The Cowboys are coming off a Thanksgiving win, but they still gave up 20 points to the Giants, led by Drew Lock. Over the last 5 weeks, this Cowboys defense is giving up 28.2 PPG, and I don’t see them having any answers for Joe Burrow and this Bengals offense, as he’s averaging 315.6 YPG with a 16:3 touchdown to interception ratio over the last five games while the offense is scoring 31.4 PPG.
Like: Bengals TT over 27.5 (-102)
Justin 'Smoove' Everett (@Smoove_702)
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