Smoove's NFL Week 13 Betting Preview & Best Bets Matchup Column

NFL WEEK 13 MATCHUPS PREVIEW

Tennessee Titans @ Washington Commanders

• Opening Line: Commanders -7.5 / Total: 44.5
• Current Line: Commanders -5.5 / Total: 44.5
• Smoove Line: Commanders -6.15 / Total: 47.71

Washington is 0-3 SU and ATS over its last three games, and Tennessee is coming off a big upset win over a division opponent. So there’s value on the Commanders in the buy-low spot, and this could be a potential letdown spot for the Titans facing an opponent outside of the division and conference. Washington is still one of the most profitable teams this year, ATS, and look for them to get a win and cover to bounce back and finish the season strong for a playoff spot.

Best Bet: Commanders -5.5

Los Angeles Chargers @ Atlanta Falcons

• Opening Line: Chargers PK / Total: 46
• Current Line: Chargers -1 / Total: 48
• Smoove Line: Chargers -1.30 / Total: 42.22

Los Angeles is coming off a home loss on a short week while traveling. Still, they’re facing Atlanta in the middle of a tough three-game stretch as they were blown out in their last game against another AFC West team, the Broncos. I think the Chargers can cause many of the same problems that Denver was able to, especially with their defense getting after Kirk Cousins. The strength of Atlanta’s offense is the passing attack, but the Chargers rank in the top 10 or better in passing defense, and they have the 4th best defensive line that can keep pressure on Cousins all game.

Like: Chargers ML -120

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals

• Opening Line: Bengals -2 / Total: 47
• Current Line: Bengals -3 / Total: 47.5
• Smoove Line: Steelers -1.35 / Total: 46.75

Joe Burrow has had an MVP-caliber season, and Ja’Marr Chase has had a great season, too. However, their 4-7 SU record is likely due to their bottom-ten-ranked defense, which Russell Wilson and this Steelers offense will likely expose. Pittsburgh is 6-5 to the over, while Cincinnati is 8-3 to the over. My model has this total at 46.75, but I think playing over the total is the smart play for this division matchup.

Lean: Steelers/Bengals over 47.5 

Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots

• Opening Line: Colts -2.5 / Total: 42.5
• Current Line: Colts -2.5 / Total: 42.5
• Smoove Line: Patriots -2.37 / Total: 38.55

This is a battle of young quarterbacks. Anthony Richardson has dealt with some adversity in his second year as a starter, and Drake Maye has shown moments for the Patriots to look forward to as they build out the rest of the roster. With this game being played in New England, I would give the edge to the Patriots' home field, as my model projects a Patriots win by 2.37 points.

Lean: Patriots +2.5

Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars

• Opening Line: Texans -6 / Total: 43
• Current Line: Texans -4 / Total: 43.5
• Smoove Line: Texans -1.83 / Total: 46.77

This line opened at Texans -6 but has dropped to -4, indicating that Trevor Lawrence will play as he was a limited participant at practice. My model only projects a Texans win by 1.83 points, but Houston holds a big edge on offense and defense against Jacksonville. This would be a win that Houston will need as they face the Dolphins, Chiefs, and Ravens over the next three weeks.

Lean: Texans -4

Arizona Cardinals @ Minnesota Vikings

• Opening Line: Vikings -3 / Total: 47
• Current Line: Vikings -3.5 / Total: 44.5
• Smoove Line: Vikings -3.14 / Total: 42.96

Last week, Minnesota had a comfortable 14-point lead in the fourth quarter against the Bears and ended up winning in overtime. The Cardinals are coming off a disappointing loss to the Seahawks, where they only scored 6 points. This line would indicate that Minnesota is 1/1.5 points better than Arizona on a neutral field, and my model projects a win for the Vikings by 3.14 points.

Lean: Vikings -3.5

Seattle Seahawks @ New York Jets

• Opening Line: Jets -1 / Total: 43.5
• Current Line: Seahawks -2.5 / Total: 42
• Smoove Line: Jets -0.70 / Total: 42.50

It’s expected to be some bad weather in New York, with 35 degrees and winds blowing around 11 mph. Both defenses should have the edge over the offenses, which makes a good recipe for the under. Seattle is 6-5 to the under, while the Jets are 5-5-1 to the under.

Like: Seahawks/Jets under 42

Tampa Bay Bucs @ Carolina Panthers

• Opening Line: Bucs -5.5 / Total: 55.5
• Current Line: Bucs -6 / Total: 46.5
• Smoove Line: Bucs -7.87 / Total: 50.51

Carolina has covered its last three games, and Bryce Young has played better since being on the bench. Still, Tampa Bay has dominated this divisional matchup, winning the previous three and covering two of those games. Tampa Bay is laying a significant number on the road, but my model projects they will win by 7.87 points. Carolina’s defense ranks 30th in yards, and their offense ranks 31st, so I’m looking for the Bucs to have a comfortable win and cover.

Best Bet: Bucs -6

Los Angeles Rams @ New Orleans Saints

• Opening Line: Rams -2.5 / Total: 46
• Current Line: Rams -2.5 / Total: 49.5
• Smoove Line: Saints -1.52 / Total: 46.90

The Saints have a top-10 offense, and the Rams' offense is above league average and would be inside the top-10 if they were as healthy as they’ve been the last few weeks. Both defensive units rank in the bottom five or worse, so even though my model projects this total at 46.90, the smart play would be to play the over, as Los Angeles is 6-5 to the over, and New Orleans is 7-4 to the over.

Lean: Rams/Saints over 49.5

Philadelphia Eagles @ Baltimore Ravens

• Opening Line: Ravens -3 / Total: 51.5
• Current Line: Ravens -3 / Total: 51
• Smoove Line: Ravens -2.26 / Total: 49.60

This will be the game of the week and a potential Super Bowl matchup. Philadelphia has won its last five games and scored 32.4 PPG. It will face this Ravens defense that ranks 24th in yards, 20th in YPP, and 23rd in PPG, allowing its opponents to score 24.5 PPG.

Like: Eagles over TT 23.5 -122

San Francisco 49ers @ Buffalo Bills

• Opening Line: Bills -3.5 / Total: 47
• Current Line: Bills -7 / Total: 44.5
• Smoove Line: Bills -7.70 / Total: 47.68

This could’ve been a potential Super Bowl matchup, but the 49ers are not healthy enough to compete this year as Brock Purdy is limited at practice again, and Trent Williams and Aaron Banks on the offensive line didn’t practice. On defense, Nick Bosa did not practice, and it was reported today that Fred Warner is playing with a fracture in his ankle and is taking pain injections to play every week. All of those guys could potentially miss this game, and Christian McCaffrey just isn’t himself after missing the majority of the season with injuries in his calves. This line opened at Bills -3.5 and has moved to -7 and could move closer to game time when the status of 49ers players is more defined.

Like: Bills -7

Cleveland Browns @ Denver Broncos

• Opening Line: Broncos -6.5 / Total: 40
• Current Line: Broncos -5.5 / Total: 41.5
• Smoove Line: Broncos -8.74 / Total: 39.96

Denver has the 2nd best ATS record at 9-3,covering the spread by 6.6 PPG. Bo Nix had a slow start to the season, but over his last five games, he’s performed like a top 8 quarterback back in the league. Denver also has one of the best defenses in the league, ranking 5th in opponent YPPO and 1st in opponent YPP. Jameis Winston moved the ball last week against the Steelers' defense, which is also elite, but I think the Browns' offense benefited from the snow slowing down the pass rush of Pittsburgh.

Best Bet: Broncos -5.5

Justin 'Smoove' Everett (@Smoove_702)

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