Smoove's NFL Week 12 Betting Preview & Best Bets Matchup Column

NFL WEEK 12 MATCHUPS PREVIEW

Detroit Lions @ Indianapolis Colts

• Opening Line: Lions -7 / Total: 50
• Current Line: Lions -7.5 / Total: 50
• Smoove Line: Lions -4.52 / Total: 45.84

Detroit is coming off a blowout win over the Jaguars 52-6, and they’re currently on an 8-game winning streak while going 7-1 ATS during this span. The public is all over the Lions while currently getting 88% of the ticket count at Draft Kings, but Anthony Richardson looked impressive last week when he returned to the starting lineup. My model projects a Lions win, but only by 4.52 points, but I wouldn’t have much confidence fading them while they’re on this streak.

Lean: Lions -7.5

Kansas City Chiefs @ Carolina Panthers

• Opening Line: Chiefs -11 / Total: 41
• Current Line: Chiefs -11 / Total: 43
• Smoove Line: Chiefs -6.32 / Total: 44.06

During his career, Patrick Mahomes is 4-0 SU as a double-digit favorite on the road, but he’s 0-3-1 ATS, and I don’t see a game script confident enough to back the Panthers in this situation. They’re the worst power-rated team in the league, while their offense ranks dead last, and their defense ranks third worst.

Pass

Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears

• Opening Line: Vikings -5 / Total: 40.5
• Current Line: Vikings -3.5 / Total: 39.5
• Smoove Line: Vikings -5.15 / Total: 35.49

The Bears played their best game last week since losing to Washington on a Hail Mary. They suffered another heartbreaking loss to a division rival when their potential game-winning field goal attempt was blocked. Now they’ll have to face another formidable divisional opponent in Minnesota, who have a much tougher defense led by their pass rush that ranks 3rd in sacks. Caleb Williams has been sacked the most times (41) behind the worst offensive line. I made this line Vikings -5, and my model projects that the Vikings will win by 5.15 points.

Best Bet: Vikings -3.5

Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Commanders

• Opening Line: Commanders -10 / Total: 44
• Current Line: Commanders -10 / Total: 45
• Smoove Line: Commanders -14.68 / Total: 39.68

Washington has a great chance to beat up on the Cowboys, who’s dominated this divisional matchup over the last 10 meetings, going 7-3 SU and ATS. Now Dallas is power-rated as the 2nd worst team in the league, with their starting quarterback out for the rest of the year. The Commanders lost their last two games, but that was against the Steelers and the Eagles. However, facing the Cowboys, they should have their way on offense and defense. I made this line 11.5, and my model projects a win for the Commanders by 14.68 points.

Best Bet: Commanders -10

Tampa Bay Bucs @ New York Giants

• Opening Line: Bucs -3 / Total: 43.5
• Current Line: Bucs -5.5 / Total: 41.5
• Smoove Line: Bucs -5.40 / Total: 45.14

It seems like the New York Giants are punting on the rest of the season and trying to secure the highest draft pick by benching Daniel Jones and starting Tommy DeVito over Drew Lock. There are also conflicting rumors coming out of New York that Brian Daboll is coaching for his future with the team. Since 2004, road favorites off a bye are 76-53-4 ATS (59%). Mike Evans returned to practice this week and is expected to play, giving Baker Mayfield his top target, which should open up the passing game more. I don’t trust the Tampa Bays defense so look to isolate the Bucs offense against this Giants defense.

Like: Bucs TT over 23.5 (-118)

New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins

• Opening Line: Dolphins -7 / Total: 43.5
• Current Line: Dolphins -7 / Total: 46
• Smoove Line: Dolphins -2.74 / Total: 39.76

The Dolphins have dominated this series ATS recently. Miami has covered the spread in 8 straight games vs. the Patriots dating back to December 2020, but my model projects this matchup to be a lot closer than the 7-point line. The Patriots look like they have their quarterback of the future in Drake Maye, but they still need to develop the offensive line and bring in some proven weapons for him to throw to outside of Hunter Henry.

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Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans

• Opening Line: Texans -9 / Total: 42.5
• Current Line: Texans -8 / Total: 40.5
• Smoove Line: Texans -8.66 / Total: 42.54

The Titans are just 1-9 ATS for the season and now have to deal with the worst matchup for them as Houston has dominated their most recent matchups, going 6-1 ATS in the last seven matchups, including 2-0 SU and ATS under DeMeco Ryans. Will Levis played a decent game last week, but overall, he’s been a turnover machine this season and has struggled to score more than 20 points. Even with the Texans dominating this divisional matchup, 8 points is a lot to lay.

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Denver Broncos @ Las Vegas Raiders

• Opening Line: Broncos -3 / Total: 41.5
• Current Line: Broncos -6 / Total: 41
• Smoove Line: Broncos -2.46 / Total: 43.26

This is another divisional matchup between two teams headed in opposite directions. The Broncos are looking to lock down a playoff spot, and the Raiders will be searching for the next quarterback in the offseason and a possible new head coach. Whoever starts at quarterback for the Raiders will have a long day facing this Broncos defense that ranks third best and has the second-most sacks.

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Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks

• Opening Line: Seahawks -1 / Total: 48.5
• Current Line: PK / Total: 47.5
• Smoove Line: Cardinals -3.40 / Total: 45.10

The Cardinals have been the most impressive team this year so far, as they’re 1st place in the NFC West with a 6-4 SU record and 7-3 ATS covering the spread by 4.3 points. They should dominate Seattle’s rush defense as they rank 27th in rush yards allowed and 25th in YPC allowed, while the Cardinals rank 5th in YPP, rush yards and 2nd in YPC. Arizona’s defense should also be able to keep pressure on Geno Smith and force a few turnovers. I made this line Cardinals -1, and my model projects a Cardinals win by 3.40 points.

Best Bet: Cardinals PK

San Francisco 49ers @ Green Bay Packers

• Opening Line: 49ers -1 / Total: 48
• Current Line: Packers -2 / Total: 47.5
• Smoove Line: Packers -3.30 / Total: 45.86

Brock Purdy has made 37 career starts entering this week. He’s only been listed as an underdog once, against the 49ers in the 2022-23 playoffs, where he got hurt, and Philly won 31-7. The 49ers have blown three fourth-quarter leads to division opponents, and Kyle Shanahan has received a lot of criticism, but after he lost a game he led by 4+ pts, he’s 10-1 SU in his last 11 games in that spot since the middle of the 2021 season (9-2 ATS). After blowing a lead vs. an NFC West team, he’s 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS as coach of the 49ers.

Lean: 49ers +2

Philadelphia Eagles @ Los Angeles Rams

• Opening Line: Eagles -3 / Total: 47.5
• Current Line: Eagles -2.5 / Total: 49
• Smoove Line: Eagles -0.73 / Total: 44.23

The Lions have received most of the attention outside the NFC, but the Eagles are quietly on a six-game winning streak and 4-2 ATS during this stretch. What’s also impressive is that they’ve only given up 20 points once, and that was when they blew a 22-point lead to the Jaguars and allowed them to get back in the game. The Rams team total is 23.5; my model projects them only scoring 21.75.

Like: Rams TT under 23.5 -112

Baltimore Ravens @ Los Angeles Chargers

• Opening Line: Ravens -3 / Total: 47.5
• Current Line: Ravens -3 / Total: 51
• Smoove Line: Chargers -3.51 / Total: 45.97

The Chargers are on a four-game winning streak while also being 4-0 ATS. Last week, they beat the Bengals high powered offense, and on Monday Night, they’ll have a great opportunity to beat another AFC North opponent in the Ravens. Justin Herbert is having a great season in his first year in Jim Harbaugh’s system, and I expect him to put up big numbers in the 2nd half of the season, starting with this Ravens secondary that ranks dead last in passing yards allowed. I made this line Ravens -1.5, and my model is calling for the Chargers to pull off the upset and win by 3.51 points.

Best Bet: Chargers +3

Justin 'Smoove' Everett (@Smoove_702)

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