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NFL Week 11 Opening Line Report: How the Market Has Moved After Week 10
Each week, in this article, we will assess how the betting market has adjusted its expectations for the upcoming week’s games after digesting the latest batch of data from Thursday’s and Sunday’s finals. By comparing the lookahead lines with the current odds, we’ll break down how each team's performance and key injuries might have influenced the market's perception and the NFL betting landscape.
Going forward from Week 5 on, we will also provide the Summer Line to see how these teams have been re-evaluated on balance over the course of the season. However, note that the "verdict" provided will only assess how the teams have been re-assessed as a result of the prior week's action.
Please note: Lines are from the home team's perspective and rounded to the nearest half-point, except for when the line is near 3.
Thursday
WAS @ PHI (8:15 ET / Amazon)
- Summer Line (as of July 1st): PHI -6
- Final Look Ahead Line (Saturday night of Week 10): PHI -3.5
- World Opener (Sunday afternoon): PHI -4
- Current (Monday 5PM ET): PHI -3.5 (EV)
Bookmakers upgraded the Eagles after their dominant win & the Commanders' home loss; however, bettors on Sunday night and early Monday have come in on the Commanders, pushing the number down closer to 3.
Verdict (market adjustments from Week 10): No significant change.
Sunday
GB @ CHI (1PM ET / FOX)
- Summer Line: CHI -1
- Final Look Ahead Line: CHI +3 (EV)
- World Opener: CHI +6.5
- Current: CHI +6.5
Bears massively downgraded after a second straight blowout loss and a straight terrible game from Caleb Williams. After seemingly shaking off the early-season rust, Williams has had his two worst games of the season back-to-back after the Bears lost on a Hail Mary in Washington. Williams is next to last in EPA/dropback over the last two weeks, ranking only ahead of Mac Jones (who played one game vs arguably the best defense in the NFL.)
Verdict: Bears downgraded 2.5-points.
JAX @ DET (1 PM ET / CBS)
- Summer Line: DET -4
- Final Look Ahead Line: DET -12.5
- World Opener: DET -13
- Current: DET -13
Lions upgraded by the market after shrugging off 5 INTs from Jared Goff in their comeback win on SNF. The Jaguars will hope to get Trevor Lawrence back under center after Jones lead Jacksonville to only 10 first downs and 7 points in fill-in duty vs. the Vikings
Verdict: Lions upgraded 1/2 point.
MIN @ TEN (1PM ET / CBS)
- Summer Line: TEN +5.5
- Final Look Ahead Line: TEN +6.5
- World Opener: TEN +6.5
- Current: TEN +6.5
The Vikings' defense just embarrassed one terrible AFC South offense in their win at Jacksonville, and the market expects them to do it again on the road vs. Tennessee. The Titans scored a late touchdowns to cover teasers but were never competitive in their loss to the Chargers. On balance, Minnesota has been upgraded 1-point in this match-up.
Verdict: Vikings upgraded 1/2 point, Titans downgraded 1/2 point.
LV @ MIA (1 PM ET / CBS)
- Summer Line: MIA -6
- Final Look Ahead Line: MIA -7
- World Opener: MIA -7
- Current: MIA -7
With the Raiders coming off their bye and the Dolphins to play on MNF, this line hasn't budged since the Look Ahead window.
Verdict: No change, MIA to play on MNF*.
LAR @ NE (1 PM ET / FOX)
- Summer Line: NE +4
- Final Look Ahead Line: NE +5.5
- World Opener: NE +4.5
- Current: NE +4.5
The Patriots received a 1-point upgrade after delivering their best defensive performance of the season, effectively stymieing rookie Caleb Williams and holding him to his worst QBR game. They now face the challenge of limiting veteran Matthew Stafford.
Verdict: Patriots upgraded 1 point.
CLE @ NOR (1 PM ET / FOX)
- Summer Line: NOR +2
- Final Look Ahead Line: NOR -1
- World Opener: NOR -2.5
- Current: NOR -1
Bettors bought back the upgrade the bookmakers gave the Saints after their upset win in Week 10 over Atlanta. Bettors may believe their overperformance will be limited to a single game following the firing of Dennis Allen, i.e., the dead cat bounce.
Verdict: No change.
BAL @ PIT (1PM ET / CBS)
- Summer Line: PIT +3
- Final Look Ahead Line: PIT +3.5
- World Opener: PIT +3
- Current: PIT +3 (EV)
Both of these teams have performed far above expectations this season, reflected in the fact that the Summer Line posted in July for this match-up is almost the same as the current line. The Steelers were upgraded after posting 28 points on the road in their Week 10 win over the Commanders. In the win, Russell Wilson became the first Steelers QB to throw for 3 passing TDs since Big Ben did it in December of 2021, near the end of his last season.
Verdict: Steelers upgraded 1/2 point.
ATL @ DEN (4:05 PM ET / FOX)
- Summer Line: DEN +3
- Final Look Ahead Line: DEN +2
- World Opener: DEN PK
- Current: DEN -1.5
We have had a flipping of the favorite in this game after the Broncos came the closest to beating the Chiefs of any team in their last 15 games. After ranking 34th in EPA/dropback through Week 6 of the season, Bo Nix has been markedly better since Week 7, ranking 17th in that metric over three games since the Broncos returned from their bye. The Falcons were downgraded after their loss at New Orleans.
Verdict: Broncos upgraded 1 point, Falcons downgraded 1 point.
SEA @ SF (4:05 PM ET / FOX)
- Summer Line: SF -9
- Final Look Ahead Line: SF -7
- World Opener: SF -6.5
- Current: SF -6.5
The 49ers were downgraded slightly despite Christian McCaffrey returning and exceeding expectations with 107 yards from scrimmage (+10.5 over his O/U). However, San Francisco's red zone issues persisted, as McCaffrey failed to find the end zone for only the 6th time in 27 starts with the team. The Seahawks are coming off their bye.
Verdict: 49ers downgraded 1/2 point.
SNF: CIN @ LAC (8:20 PM ET / NBC)
- Summer Line: LAC +2
- Final Look Ahead Line: LAC -1.5
- World Opener: LAC -1.5
- Current: LAC -1.5
Chargers get no extra credit from the markets for their comfortable win over the Titans, seeing no change in the spread for this match up. In LA's comfortable win over the Titans in week 10, Justin Hebert continued his hot streak, posting his highest QBR of the season (84.9).
Verdict: No change.
KC @ BUF (4:25 PM ET / CBS)
- Summer Line: BUF +1
- Final Look Ahead Line: BUF -1
- World Opener: BUF -2
- Current: BUF -2.5
Fascinating movement in this line. The Lookahead line opened with the Bills as two-point favorites, but Chiefs money throughout the week pushed it down prior to Sunday's Week 10 games. After the games—where the Bills cruised relatively easily and the Chiefs barely won on a walk-off blocked FG—the Bills reopened at -2 and have since been bet up to solid 2.5-point favorites. Lookahead bettors who pounded the Chiefs +2 may take solace in the fact that Patrick Mahomes is 12-1-1 ATS as an underdog in his career, also winning his only game where the Chiefs entered with a pick'em line.
Verdict: Bills upgraded 1/2 point, Chiefs downgraded 1 point
IND @ NYJ (1 PM ET / CBS)
- Summer Line: NYJ -4
- Final Look Ahead Line: NYJ -4
- World Opener: NYJ -3.5
- Current: NYJ -3 (-120)
Both teams suffered losses and failed to cover in Week 10. The Jets, however, were downgraded much more significantly after a lifeless 31-6 defeat to the Cardinals, marking their most lopsided loss of the season and raising concerns among fans about the team's effort, particularly on defense.
Verdict: Colts downgraded 1/2 point, Jets downgraded 1.5 points.
Monday
MNF: HOU @ DAL (8:15 PM ET / ESPN)
- Summer Line: DAL -3
- Final Look Ahead Line: DAL +6
- World Opener: DAL +7
- Current: DAL +7
The Texans should be downgraded after blowing a 16-point lead and scoring zero points in the second half of their Sunday Night Football loss to the Lions. The Cowboys, though, were much worse, also failing to score in the second half en route to losing 34-6 at home to the Eagles. For the second consecutive game the Cowboys are home underdogs of 7+ points, marking the first time they have been this big of underdogs in back-to-back home games since 2001.
Verdict: Texans downgraded 1/2 point, Cowboys downgraded 1.5 points
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