Smoove's NFL Week 11 Betting Preview & Best Bets Matchup Column

NFL WEEK 11 MATCHUPS PREVIEW

Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles

• Opening Line: Eagles -3.5 / Total: 50
• Current Line: Eagles -3.5 / Total: 48.5
• Smoove Line: Eagles -5.14 / Total: 47.62

This is a battle for 1st place in the NFC East, and I think the Eagles hold the edge. Jayden Daniels has had an impressive season so far. Still, he’ll be going up against one of the best secondaries in the league, ranking top 5 or better in yards allowed, QB rating allowed, completion percentage allowed, and yards per attempt allowed. The Eagles have failed to cover in six straight home games, but Jalen Hurts is 8-2-1 ATS in home night games. The line opened at 3.5, and Philadelphia is getting 52% of the tickets and 61% of the handle at Draft Kings, and my model has the Eagles winning this game by 5.14 points.

Best Bet: Eagles -3.5

Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears

• Opening Line: Packers -3 / Total: 44.5
• Current Line: Packers -5 / Total: 40
• Smoove Line: Packers -3.35 / Total: 40.25

Since 2019, the Bears have been a great fade in divisional games, going 8-21-1 ATS, making them the least profitable team in divisional matchups. Since 2004, road favorites coming off a bye week have been very profitable, going 76-51-4 ATS (60%). At the opening number of -3, this would’ve been considered a best bet, but since it’s moved to -5, it would have to be a lean or a pass.

Lean: Packers -5

Cleveland Browns @ New Orleans Saints

• Opening Line: Saints -1.5 / Total: 42
• Current Line: Saints -1 / Total: 44.5
• Smoove Line: Saints -1.23 / Total: 42.63

Dennis Allen was one of the worst head coaches in league history when it came to meeting expectations against Vegas numbers, whether it was a game-to-game basis or preseason win totals. It would not shock me if the Saints made a playoff push now that they’ve fired Allen. Jameis Winston led the Browns to an upset over the Ravens but was blown out against the Chargers, and in tight games where the point spread is 3 points or less, he’s just 13-24-1 ATS in his career, which is the least profitable of any quarterback. My model projects a Saints win by 1.23 points, so a money-line play on New Orleans may be the smarter play.

Best Bet: Saints ML -115

Los Angeles Rams @ New England Patriots

• Opening Line: Rams -5.5 / Total: 43
• Current Line: Rams -4.5 / Total: 43.5
• Smoove Line: Rams -0.65 / Total: 41.65

The big factor that could make this game difficult for the Rams would be a West Coast team traveling to the East Coast and playing in the early time slot. Other than that disadvantage, the Rams should have the edge on offense and defense. The Patriots' offense under Drake Maye has had some good moments and flashed potential, but they’re still really young, with the most reliable weapon being the tight end Hunter Henry. My model projects a Rams win but is closer to a PK game, so I would look to play under the total.

Lean: Rams/Patriots under 43.5

Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers

• Opening Line: Ravens -3 / Total: 44.5
• Current Line: Ravens -3 / Total: 48
• Smoove Line: Steelers -3.02 / Total: 49.70

Since Mike Tomlin has been the head coach of the Steelers dating back to 2007, when he’s been an underdog, he’s 60-35-5 ATS 63.2%, so you can almost bet the Steelers blind as an underdog with Mike Tomlin as they’re the most profitable team in this role. Also, over the last 20 years, in this divisional rivalry, the underdog is 28-10-3 ATS (74%). Since Russell Wilson has been the starter, the Steelers are 3-0 SU and ATS, while the offense averages more than 400 YPG and 30 PPG. My model likes the Steelers to move to 4-0 SU and ATS with Russell Wilson, as I have them projected to win by 3.02 points.

Best Bet: Steelers +3

Las Vegas Raiders @ Miami Dolphins

• Opening Line: Dolphins -7 / Total: 45.5
• Current Line: Dolphins -7.5 / Total: 44
• Smoove Line: Dolphins -7.25 / Total: 44.75

The Dolphins are on a short week coming off an upset win over the Rams with travel all the way back to Miami and still opened as 7-point favorites against the Raiders with respected money coming in on Miami moving the line to 7.5 should tell you everything needed to know about the Raiders. The Raiders have also made a quarterback change back to Gardner Minshew, who’s made seven starts this season and has more turnovers than touchdowns, but Antonio Pierce has stated he gives them the best chance to win.

Lean: Dolphins -7.5

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Detroit Lions

• Opening Line: Lions -11 / Total: 51.5
• Current Line: Lions -14 / Total: 46.5
• Smoove Line: Lions -10.46 / Total: 47.80

Jared Goff has been a double-digit favorite 11 times in his career, and he’s 9-2 SU and 7-4 ATS. However, this number is too much to lay for me, as my model projects a Lions win but only by 10.46 points. As an underdog of a touchdown or more in his career, Doug Pederson is 3-9 SU and 0-4 SU in Jacksonville, so don’t expect a major upset this week from this matchup.

Lean: Jaguars/Lions over 46.5

Minnesota Vikings @ Tennessee Titans

• Opening Line: Vikings -5.5 / Total: 41.5
• Current Line: Vikings -6 / Total: 39.5
• Smoove Line: Vikings -8.31 / Total: 42.47

After having a total of just five interceptions in their first seven games, Sam Darnold has had five interceptions in the Vikings' last two games. It hasn’t cost them a loss as they faced fewer opponents in the Colts and Jaguars, but it will cost them later on if Darnold can’t get back on track. In Will Levis’ 15 career starts, the Titans offense has scored more than 20 points just 3 times, and the Titans are 4-11 SU and ATS in his starts. As bad as the Titans' offense has been, their defense has been one of the best in the league, and Sam Darnold could struggle again.

Best Bet: Pass

Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers

• Opening Line: 49ers -6.5 / Total: 49
• Current Line: 49ers -6.5 / Total: 48
• Smoove Line: 49ers -3.30 / Total: 48.18

On 10/10, the 49ers beat Seattle by 12 points as a 3.5-point road favorite, and the 49ers have dominated this divisional matchup since Brock Purdy became the starter. The 49ers are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in the last six matchups. Brock Purdy has also been a profitable bet inside the NFC West division with a 7-4 ATS record, but my model only projects a 49ers win by 3.30 points as Purdy is just 11-14 ATS as a favorite of four or more points.

Best Bet: Pass

Atlanta Falcons @ Denver Broncos

• Opening Line: Falcons -2 / Total: 43
• Current Line: Broncos -2.5 / Total: 44
• Smoove Line: Broncos -1.26 / Total: 43.02

Denver was a few seconds away last week from ending the Chiefs' undefeated season, but their game-winning field goal was blocked so Sean Payton could use that moment to make sure his team is locked into all details for every second of the game as they still have a shot to make the playoffs. Bo Nix should have the edge over this Falcons secondary, and Atlanta also struggles to get pressure on the quarterback as they rank dead last in sacks. My model projects a Broncos win by 1.26 points, but Denver can win the turnover battle as they have the edge on offense and defense against Atlanta.

Best Bet: Broncos ML -136

Kansas City Chiefs @ Buffalo Bills

• Opening Line: Bills -1 / Total: 46.5
• Current Line: Bills -1 / Total: 46
• Smoove Line: Bills -3.35 / Total: 45.15

Even with my model projecting a Bills win by 3.35 points, which would cover the 1-point spread, Patrick Mahomes is 11-3 SU and 12-1-1 ATS as an underdog, which is the best record for any quarterback as an underdog, making at least 10 starts. Patrick Mahomes is also 25-10 SU and 26-8-1 ATS in his career as a favorite of three or fewer points or as an underdog, so he’s become a bettors' dream to back in close games, which oddsmakers expect this matchup to be.

Lean: Chiefs ML +115

Indianapolis Colts @ New York Jets

• Opening Line: Jets -4 / Total: 43.5
• Current Line: Jets -3.5 / Total: 44
• Smoove Line: Jets -3.19 / Total: 39.99

Both teams are having quarterback issues as the spark from Joe Flacco has faded, and the Colts are deciding to go back to Anthony Richardson. Still, he’s just ready to be an NFL quarterback, and the Jets have failed to live up to preseason expectations with a healthy and aging Aaron Rodgers, even after trading for his favorite target. The Jets' defense has also been one of the worst in the league since firing Robert Saleh and has only forced one turnover since week 6.

Lean: Jets -3.5

Cincinnati Bengals @ Los Angeles Chargers

• Opening Line: Chargers -1 / Total: 43.5
• Current Line: Chargers -1 / Total: 47.5
• Smoove Line: Chargers -8.94 / Total: 41.88

Since Joe Burrow has been the starting quarterback of the Bengals, their offensive line has struggled to protect him, and now they’ll have to face this Chargers defense that’s one of the best in the league and ranks 3rd in Sacks per game, so expect Joe Burrow to stay under pressure for this Sunday Night matchup. Joe Burrow is also 5-8 SU in night games, including 0-6 SU as an underdog. I have the Chargers with a big edge in the matchup and project a Chargers win by 8.94 points.

Best Bet: Chargers -1

Houston Texans @ Dallas Cowboys

• Opening Line: Texans -6 / Total: 43.5
• Current Line: Texans -7.5 / Total: 42
• Smoove Line: Texans -4.02 / Total: 46

Houston is coming off a tough loss last Sunday Night to the Lions as they blew a 16-point halftime lead and didn’t score in the second half. A big factor in this Texans offense struggling in CJ Stroud’s second year is his best receiver, Nico Collins, who has missed the last five games but should be back for this matchup. Dak Prescott will be out for this game and miss the rest of the season with an injury. Back in 2022, when Cooper Rush started five games for Dallas while Dak was out, he went 4-1 SU, but a lot has changed with this Cowboys team since then. The defense was better led by Dan Quinn, who’s no longer there; they had a solid running game and more than one wide receiver that was a threat. Now they have none of those things, which showed in their 34-6 blowout loss to the Eagles as Rush threw for only 45 yards. My model projects a win for Houston, but only by 4.02 points, and I couldn’t back the Cowboys with any confidence.

Best Bet: Pass

Justin 'Smoove' Everett (@Smoove_702)

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