Smoove's NFL Week 10 Betting Preview & Best Bets Matchup Column

NFL WEEK 10 MATCHUPS PREVIEW

New York Giants vs. Carolina Panthers

• Opening Line: Giants -4 / Total: 42
• Current Line: Giants -6.5 / Total: 40
• Smoove Line: Giants -9.32 / Total: 35.56

Both teams come into this matchup 2-7 SU, but the trends have been on the side of favorites in international matchups, and my model projects the Giants -9.32. New York has faced the seventh-hardest SOS, but this week against the Panthers, it should lighten up.

Best Bet: Giants -6.5

Buffalo Bills @ Indianapolis Colts

• Opening Line: Bills -4 / Total: 47
• Current Line: Bills -4 / Total: 47
• Smoove Line: Bills -1.54 / Total: 44.68

Last week, Joe Flacco faced a Vikings defense that creates constant pressure on opposing quarterbacks. He was sacked three times but pressured a lot more and had a QBR of just 14.7. This week, he’ll face a Bills defense that doesn’t cause as much pressure as Minnesota, but they force more turnovers. My model made this line Bills -1.54, so there’s no value in laying points with Buffalo on the road, and I think this is another bad matchup for the Colts.

Lean: Bills -4

Minnesota Vikings @ Jacksonville Jaguars

• Opening Line: Vikings -4 / Total: 47.5
• Current Line: Vikings -4.5 / Total: 45
• Smoove Line: Vikings -5.99 / Total: 47.15

Minnesota is one of the more public bets this week, getting 88% of the tickets, but the Vikings should dominate this matchup on both sides of the ball. Last week, the Eagles were up 22-0, and Sam Darnold should have a big day in the passing game as this Jaguars secondary ranks in the bottom five or worse in every key passing stat. My model made this line Vikings -5.99.

Best Bet: Vikings -4.5

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Washington Commanders

• Opening Line: Commanders -1.5 / Total: 44
• Current Line: Commanders -2.5 / Total: 45.5
• Smoove Line: Steelers -2.50 / Total: 45.94

This will be one of the week's best games with the Steelers 6-2 SU and ATS and Washington 7-2 SU and 7-1-1 ATS. Since Mike Tomlin has chosen to go with Russell Wilson, this Pittsburgh offense is averaging 417.5 YPG and 31.5 PPG. Wilson pushing the ball downfield has also taken pressure off the running game, and they now have a legit offense to match their championship-level defense. I see them being undervalued for the rest of the season. My model has the Steelers as the favorite by 2.50 points.

Best Bet: Steelers +2.5

Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints

• Opening Line: Falcons -1 / Total: 47
• Current Line: Falcons -4 / Total: 46.5
• Smoove Line: Saints -1.24 / Total: 48.64

New Orleans should be motivated after firing their coach, and even though the Falcons won and covered last week against the Cowboys, the stat sheet suggests the game should’ve been closer than the final score. The public market may feel like the Saints are punting on the season as 86% of the tickets are backing the Falcons, but this is still a division rival, and since last season, the Saints are 5-4-1 ATS in division games and 2-1 ATS in the previous 3 matchups against the Falcons.

Best Bet: Saints +4

Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs

• Opening Line: Chiefs -8.5 / Total: 43
• Current Line: Chiefs -9 / Total: 41.5
• Smoove Line: Chiefs -5.50 / Total: 40.60

Last week I backed the Broncos against the Ravens but they had no answers for the Ravens explosive offensive as they were blown off the field but this could be a different situation. The Chiefs offense is respectable and efficient because of Patrick Mahomes, but it’s not as explosive as the Ravens, so Denver should do a better job staying within this number. Also, this is a division matchup, so the Broncos are more comfortable facing the Chiefs than a nondivision opponent like the Ravens.

Like: Broncos +9

San Francisco 49ers @ Tampa Bay Bucs

• Opening Line: 49ers -6.5 / Total: 48
• Current Line: 49ers -5.5 / Total: 51
• Smoove Line: Bucs -1.61 / Total: 52.37

Tampa Bay is on a short week with their top two wideouts out while the 49ers are coming off their bye week at home, so the market and most bettors will love the situation for the 49ers, but this line opened 49ers -6.5 and has moved to 5.5 so respected money is coming in on the Bucs, and it’s because of their offense. Even without their top 3 wideouts on Monday Night, they had a chance to win while covering the +9, and they should still be able to move the ball against this 49ers defense.

Best Bet: Buccaneers +5.5

New England Patriots @ Chicago Bears

• Opening Line: Bears -7 / Total: 40
• Current Line: Bears -6 / Total: 38.5
• Smoove Line: Bears -5.74 / Total: 40.96

Chicago still can’t get over their loss against Washington’s last play Hail Mary as they were easily blown out, and that game was mentioned in players' press conferences. Plus, it seems many players have tuned out the head coach, so I couldn’t confidently lay the points with the Bears. New England is not making the playoffs, but it seems like they have found their quarterback for the future with Drake Maye. My model made this line 5.74, so at 6 or higher, New England is the right side.

Like: Patriots +6

Tennessee Titans @ Los Angeles Chargers

• Opening Line: Chargers -7 / Total: 38
• Current Line: Chargers -7.5 / Total: 38.5
• Smoove Line: Chargers -9.03 / Total: 36.57

Will Levis was a limited participant in practice Wednesday and could miss another game, but I don’t see it making much of a difference between Mason Rudolph and Will Levis. Either one of them will have to face one of the best defenses in the league, which creates a lot of pressure on the quarterback. As bad as the Titans are on offense, they have one of the best defenses in the league, so I don’t see either offense having good days come Sunday.

Like: Titans/Chargers under 38.5

Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys

• Opening Line: Eagles -3 / Total: 48.5
• Current Line: Eagles -7 / Total: 43
• Smoove Line: Eagles -4.13 / Total: 48.97

Dak Prescott will be out for at least the next four games, and Cooper Rush will get the start. In 2022, Rush stepped in for Prescott and went 4-1 SU in 5 starts. The Cowboys' offense performed over the league average, averaging 312.2 YPG and 21.4 PPG during that time span.

Lean: Cowboys +7

New York Jets @ Arizona Cardinals

• Opening Line: PK / Total: 44.5
• Current Line: PK / Total: 46
• Smoove Line: Cardinals -3.83 / Total: 43.01

The Jets are playing to keep their playoff chances alive, while the Cardinals are currently in first place in the NFC West and in a great spot to make the playoffs. However, this could be a letdown spot as they face a division rival in Seattle next week, coming off a blowout win over the Bears.

Lean: Cardinals TT under

Detroit Lions @ Houston Texans

• Opening Line: Lions -3 / Total: 48.5
• Current Line: Lions -3.5 / Total: 49
• Smoove Line: Lions -3.71 / Total: 47.11

Detroit is coming off a win and cover last week against a division rival in the Packers, but the Packers had more 1st downs and gained more yards, so it could’ve been a misleading outcome. The Texans' offense has struggled the last 4 weeks without their best wide receiver in Nico Collins, but he should be available to play this week, and CJ Stroud will have the edge against this Lions secondary as they rank 29th in YPG. This is a Sunday Night Football matchup, and the Lions are a public play getting 89% of the tickets, so if you like the Texans, hold out closer to kickoff to see if this line moves to 4/4.5.

Lean: Texans +3.5 (wait closer to kickoff for a 4/4.5)

Miami Dolphins @ Los Angeles Rams

• Opening Line: Rams -3 / Total: 49.5
• Current Line: Rams -1 / Total: 50
• Smoove Line: Rams -7.43 / Total: 41.41

Miami has shown to be a much better team when Tua Tagovailoa is healthy and playing, but since he’s returned over the last two weeks, they’re still winless. The Rams are coming off a big division win over Seattle, so this could be a potential letdown spot. The smarter play for this matchup would be to get involved in some player prop markets targeting De’Von Achane against this Rams rush defense. Achane is averaging 60 YPG on the ground in 8 games, and the Rams rush defense ranks 24th in YPG.

Like: De’Von Achane over 51.5 rush yards (-115)

Justin 'Smoove' Everett (@Smoove_702)

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