By Gene Lesser
The UFC Apex will host UFC Fight Night: Whittaker v. Gastelum this Saturday night live from Las Vegas, Nevada, and similar to last week, an important middleweight bout will headline the card. Former division champion Robert Whittaker looks to all but lock up a middleweight title fight rematch with champion Israel Adesanya with a win. Kelvin Gastelum, on the other side, is coming in on short notice and looking to win his second straight match while also gaining some traction in the division. Before we take a look at some key betting opportunities on this card, let's take a look back at UFC on ABC 2: Vettori vs. Holland. You'll also find my full list of fight picks for both the main card and the preliminary card at the bottom of this article!
Last Week's Recap - UFC on ABC 2: Vettori vs. Holland Betting Record:
All Fight Picks: 8-5
Official Plays: 1-2
Units: -0.75
We were a split decision away from ending the night in the black. Ignacio Bahamondes (-190) had a tough split decision loss to John Makdessi (+165), this spoiling our parlay. That loss has me reassessing betting on fighters who are competing in their first fight after winning on Dana White’s Contender Series, coming in especially as a moderate favorite. Those fighters' record is below .500, and Mike Perry (+135) did not utilize his wrestling as I believed he would in this loss to Daniel Rodriguez (-155). Perry’s UFC career looks like it’s at a crossroads while Rodriguez is on its way to entering the UFC rankings with more performances like this. Mackenzie Dern (+125) also came through with a beautiful first-round submission victory over Nina Nunes (-140). She’s now won four in a row and is most likely one big fight away from a title shot.
Luis Pena (-150) vs Alexander Munoz (+135)
Luis Pena is a diverse striker that loves to utilize his range and pick his opponents apart from the outside with an array of strikes. Alexander Munoz, on the other hand, is looking to land a big punch on the feet while mixing in his wrestling to win rounds. I was not impressed at all with what I saw when looking at Munoz’s previous fights either, in particular his wrestling. While Munoz is indeed a wrestler, he doesn’t do a good job of getting his opponents to the mat or controlling them on the mat consistently. He’s more of a "jab from the outside and hope to land a big overhand punch" type of fighter. Yes, one of Pena’s flaws is his takedown defense, but he’s also active on the ground, looking to lock up submissions while ultimately looking to work his way back up to the feet. On the feet, Pena is clearly the better striker here and also has a good enough chin to withstand Munoz's power. I'll take one and half units on Luis Pena (-150) to win.
Juan Espino (+115) vs. Alexandr Romanov (-135)
These guys remind me of that Spiderman meme where the two Spidermen are pointing at each other while facing off. Both of these guys' skills are very similar, as they are pressure fighters who are relentless with their grappling. Both of them also look to get you against the cage in the clinch, wear on you until they eventually get you to the ground and eventually look to submit you or ground and pound until your unconscious. While both of these heavyweights simply impress me with their relentless style, I believe that Romanov is the better of the two at implementing that style consistently. Not to mention, he’s also good at mixing in more varied strikes on the feet, like kicks to the body and flying knees. He is also more vicious when his opponent is on the ground, as he often looks to break his opponent. I believe he breaks Espino en route to a unanimous victory here. One and half units on Alexander Romanov (-135) to win.
Prop Bet of the Night: Abdul Razak Alhassan Wins By KO/TKO (-135)
Abdul Razak Alhassan (-290), who’s missed weight in his past two fights, is moving up a weight class to middleweight to take on Jacob Malkoun (+245). I believe Alhassan will have a much healthier and easier weight cut this time around, however, and the extra 15 pounds of weight here bodes well for a guy who already had ridiculous knockout power at welterweight. Now enter Malkoun, who was brutally knocked out in his last fight against Phil Hawes and is a similar fighter who has a propensity for pressuring his opponents and knocking them out in the first round. Malkoun doesn't do well when he's pressured and having to defend big punches either, while Alhassan is 10-3 in his MMA career overall with all 10 of his victories having come via first round KO/TKO. I’d rather take Alhassan to win by KO/TKO at a more palatable price of -135 though, versus laying the big price of -290 odds for him to just win outright.
All Picks For UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Gastelum
MAIN CARD (10PM ET on ESPN)
Robert Whittaker (-250) vs. Kelvin Gastelum (+210)
Drakkar Klose (+100) vs. Jeremy Stephens (-120)
Andrei Arlovski (-120) vs. Chase Sherman (+100)
Abdul Razak Alhassan (-290) vs. Jacob Malkoun (+245)
Luis Pena (-150) vs Alexander Munoz (+135)
PRELIMINARY CARD (7PM ET on ESPN+)
Tracy Cortez (-275) vs. Justine Kish (+235)
Juan Espino (+115) vs. Alexandr Romanov (-135)
Lupita Godinez (-275) vs. Jessica Penne (+235)
Bartosz Fabinski (-130) vs. Gerald Meerschaert (+110)
Austin Hubbard (-185) vs. Dakota Bush (+160)
Zarah Fairn (+105) vs. Josiane Nunes (-125)
Anthony Birchak (+265) vs. Tony Gravely (-325)