UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley Saturday Fight Night Bet...

UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley Saturday Fight Night Betting Preview

· UFC,MMA,Gene Lesser

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UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley goes down this Saturday night, live from the TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts. Check out my plays for this highly anticipated card below.

Chris Weidman (+215) (FanDuel) (1U)

I admit that Chris Weidman is coming off a horrific leg injury, hasn’t fought in two years, is now 39 years old, and knocking on retirement’s door, but should he really be a 2-1 underdog against Brad Tavares? I don’t believe so. Tavares’ longevity in the middleweight division is astonishing. He’s the gatekeeper of the division but nothing more, especially at this point of his career. He’s 2-4 in his last six fights, losing two in a row, and leaving much to be desired in the way of his performances. He’s a solid volume striker who’s tough and durable. Weidman will look to get this fight to the ground against a guy with good takedown defense but even if he isn’t able to do so, is Tavares gonna hurt Weidman on the feet? No. Tavares hasn’t knocked out an opponent since April of 2018. If Weidman isn’t able to get Tavares to the mat and win rounds, he’ll at the very least be in even striking exchanges on the feet. I see this fight going to the judge’s scorecards and I expect a close, greasy decision victory for one of these fighters. At 2-1 odds and in front of crowd that is gonna go nuts for him (this will help sway the judges), I can’t help but jump on the value that is Weidman and hope he’s the one winning the close, greasy decision.

Zhang Weili by KO/TKO or Submission (-140) (PointsBet) (1.5U)

Since her split decision loss to Namajunas, Weili has been a woman on a mission. She changed camps and re-tooled her training to recapture her title back. Two fights later, she did exactly that in dominating fashion. She’s coming off of back to back finishes (a KO/TKO and a submission). Weili’s grappling in her most recent fights have been on another level and that spells trouble for Lemos who’s had trouble with strong grapplers in the past. On the feet, Weili has always possessed high level striking ability mixed in with fight ending power. Add in the fact that Lemos gasses when her fights reach the third round. This is a five round fight. The longer the fight goes, the more gassed and susceptible to a fight ending mistake is Lemos. Simply put, where ever this fight takes place, I believe Weili finishes her opponent. Instead of laying the heavy juice (over -300) on the favorite, let’s cut that in half and get her at a more playable number.

Zhang Weili by Submission (+450) (PointsBet) (0.75U)

Zhang Weili looks like a woman possessed since her loss to Rose Namajunas. She’s rattled off two straight finishes and recaptured her title. Lemos, because of her sketchy gas tank, knows she needs to go for broke early and often in this fight. The problem for her is that Weili has worked on and emphasized her grappling game since changing camps to Fight Ready (Henry Cejudo’s camp). Add in the fact that all week she has talked about taking the path of least resistance in this matchup indicating that she is going to grapple and look for the fight ending submission. Regardless of the talk, given the fact that Weili is emphasizing her grappling and is coming off of a submission victory, I foresee her sticking with what’s worked and getting Lemos out of this fight early with a submission.

Sean O’Malley (+225) (FanDuel) (1U)

Aljamain Sterling is the rightful favorite with the clearest path to victory in this matchup. I understand that I could look like an idiot at the conclusion of this bout because I can easily see Sterling backpacking O’Malley and choking him out. However, my gut tells me something different. Sterling and O’Malley’s common opponent was Petr Yan. Yan was able to out grapple Sterling and light him up on the feet in both of their matchups for long periods of time. Against O’Malley, Yan did more of the same but O’Malley was able to survive the grappling exchanges and light Yan up on the feet as well. O’Malley is the furthest thing from a grappler. For him to survive many of the grappling exchanges against Yan was shocking and say a lot about his evolution as a fighter. The “book” on O’Malley is to take him down and you win but we haven’t seen that happen in his career to date. I understand that Sterling is on another level with his grappling but on the feet he takes too much damage for my liking. He also gasses late in fights which leaves him susceptible to power shots. O’Malley is a sniper on the feet and he knows he can’t go to the ground with Sterling for extended periods of time. I believe O’Malley has drilled his takedown defense in training and has a few tricks up his sleeve for Sterling upon takedown entries. I see O’Malley knocking Sterling out with a a crisp one-two combination. There is an aura around O’Malley. Just when everyone writes him off, he proves them wrong. I believe that this is his moment and he will shock the world against a guy that most of the MMA world has already anointed as the winner Saturday night.

My Picks to Win

By Gene Lesser
@MeanGene0022

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