By Gene Lesser
The UFC heads to Newark, New Jersey for their twentieth event in the Garden State, as the Prudential Center plays host to UFC 288. The card is headlined by the highly anticipated return of former champion, Henry Cejudo, as he takes on current champion, Aljamain Sterling for the bantamweight title. In the co-main event, the UFC has blessed us with a rare, non-title five-round fight between Belal Muhammad and Gilbert Burns. This number one contender welterweight bout will determine the challenger for Leon Edwards' belt at the end of the year. And finally, the featured bout will showcase two of the best strawweight strikers on the planet when former champion, Jessica Andrade, takes on Yan Xiaonan in a matchup that has "Fight of the Night" written all over it. As always, you'll find all of my picks for UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo at the bottom of this article and you can find my entire Betting Predators MMA article pick history here.
All of the fight odds are provided by DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing. All of the stats are provided by UFCStats.com.
Aljamain Sterling (+100) vs. Henry Cejudo (-120)
Both fighters have long teased this matchup, but it was Henry Cejudo's early retirement that put a halt to those plans. Three years later, we finally get this highly anticipated matchup. For Cejudo, this is about legacy. He will look to get his belt back and cement his legacy as one of the greatest combat athletes of all-time, before eventually moving up to featherweight in quest to become MMA's first ever three-division champion. For Aljamain Sterling, this is about respect and cementing his bantamweight legacy. His achievements in the division have been questioned due to three straight controversial decisions. He will look to erase those questions with a dominant performance against one the UFC's all-time best.
I believe this fight is and should be lined at nearly a pick'em given the uncertainties surrounding Cejudo's return from a three year layoff. However, if this fight took place without that layoff, I believe Cejudo would be a moderate favorite over Sterling given the respective skills of both fighters. Cejudo is the more powerful and diverse striker on the feet and the better and stronger wrestler on the ground. Sterling is a diverse striker in his own right, doing a good job of mixing in kicks to keep his opponent of balance but he lacks power. He is a strong grappler in his own right who will look to blend his wrestling and jiu jitsu skills together. If he gets your back, more than likely, it is game over.
I can not overlook where this fight would be lined without Cejudo's layoff. He was not just sitting around for three years. He helped build one of the best gyms in all of MMA (Fight Ready) while also becoming one of the top coaches in the sport, coaching the likes of Jon Jones and Weili Zhang back to their respective titles. Cejudo is a different athlete with a different mindset. There's no laziness or quit in this guy when it comes to training and preparing for a fight. The X-factor in this fight for me will be the cardio. Sterling has a history of fading as his fights go deep while Cejudo is the opposite, he only gets better. Add that into the clear skill advantage for Cejudo and I can not help but take Cejudo at these reduced odds. And new...
1.50 units on Henry Cejudo (-120)
Belal Muhammad (+120) vs. Gilbert Burns (-140)
UFC 288 lost it's original co-main event when Charles Oliveira vs. Beneil Dariush was forced off the card due to injury. Enter Belal Muhammad and Gilbert Burns who will be engaged in a five-round fight to determine who will fight Leon Edwards next for his welterweight title.
Both fighters are coming into this one on short notice, but it is Belal Muhammad who truly has had less than a few weeks to prepare. Burns just competed less than a month ago at UFC 287 where he dominated Jorge Masvidal, so he should be in relatively good shape for this fight. Both fighters are strong grapplers with a competent striking game. Muhammad primarily strikes from the outside using his boxing to setup his wrestling. Burns prefers to strike in a phone booth where he often possess the superior power over his opponents. That power is not limited to just his hands as he throws very heavy leg kicks from range which will be key in this fight.
Muhammad is the underdog darling of the MMA betting community. He has consistently cashed as an underdog throughout his career. Once again, he's an underdog in this matchup and once again, most of the MMA community is betting him. The guy continues to be counted out, but now he is finally on the cusp of getting his long awaited shot at UFC gold. Unfortunately for him, he's going up against a fighter that is better across the board. Like many fighters, Burns fell in love with his striking, and rightfully so, but it was his grappling that made him a force in the division. He recently gotten back to his heavy grappling style and has looked dominant once again. He will not have to worry about getting knocked out on the feet or on his wrestling entries like he did in the Masvidal fight a month ago. He can have success wherever this fight takes place. The only thing that worries me is Burns' gas tank. He has been known to fade late in fights and Muhammad's gas tank is insane so I do worry if this fight gets into the later rounds. However, I do not believe this fight sees the later rounds as I got Burns getting the highlight finish before this fight hits the championship rounds.
1.50 units on Gilbert Burns (-140)
Kron Gracie (+145) vs. Charles Jourdain (-170)
The Gracie name is known throughout the combat world and it holds an especially special place in the UFC. One of its lineage, Kron Gracie, will grace the octagon on Saturday night and look to carry on the Gracie name as he takes on the exciting striker, Charles Jourdain.
We all know what Gracie ultimately wants to do and that is get this fight to ground and submit Jourdain. Jourdain wants to make this fight a stand up war like all of his fights in the UFC to this point. You might think Gracie would shy away from a standup war, but he's shown a propensity to be very comfortable in that realm. Sure, he did lose an unanimous decision war with Cub Swanson in his last belt, but I was impressed by his unrelenting pressure and heart. He was landing some big shots in the third round as Cub was starting to fade. Simply put, the guy will fight for your money. Jourdain is a fun fighter who has a diverse and wild striking approach. However, the problem for him is two-fold. First, he fades late in fights. Secondly, he seems to find himself on the ground whether it's as a result of his opponent or his own doing. The last place you want to be is on the ground with Gracie. Wherever this fight takes place, I'm comfortable with Gracie at these dog odds. Given his place as the opener of the PPV card and his opponent, I believe the UFC set Gracie up for a winnable fight here, and at dog odds how could I pass this one up?
1.00 units on Kron Gracie (+145)
Marina Rodriguez (-130) vs. Virna Jandiroba (+110)
This fight made my card at the last minute. I'm either going to look like a genius with this pick or a complete idiot. That is what it's like betting Marina Rodriguez against grapplers. Rodriguez is a fluid striker on the feet, but she often struggles to keep the fight standing when up against a strong grappler. She improved her takedown defense, but if you're betting her, you're always sweating from bell to bell. Virna Jandiroba is a striker in her own right, but she does have the superior grappling in this matchup. However, she likes to get lulled into fire fights which is what Rodriguez wants. When Jandiroba does get takedowns, she does a decent job aof controlling her opponent in that position. Ultimately, I believe Rodriguez will do enough to keep this fight standing for the majority of the bout, which will allow her to land more volume and the more impactful strikes. This will be a sweat, but it could look like a steal in hindsight at these odds.
1.50 unit on Marina Rodriguez (-130)
"Underdog of the Night" Pizza Bet - Braxton Smith (+150)
Low level heavyweight fights are where favorites go to die. Is Braxton Smith some future heavyweight star? No, but what he does have is big power. Is Parker Porter a bad heavyweight fighter? No, but what he does have is a questionable chin. If the fight gets past the first round, then Smith may be in trouble, but I expect him to get the first round knockout here.
"Prop Bet of the Night" Pizza Bet - Kron Gracie to Win By Submission (+215)
Kron Gracie is a Brazilian Jiu Jitsu ace with a solid striking game and gas tank. Charles Jourdain is a reckless and wild striker with a questionable gas tank. Gracie will have more than enough submission opportunities to cash this ticket, but I particularly like him to do so in the third round when Jourdain's fight IQ and gas tank fails him.
Some Other Prop Bets That I Like:
Henry Cejudo to Win By KO/TKO/DQ/Submission (By Finish) (+275)
Henry Cejudo to Win By Submission (+1400)
Gilbert Burns to Win By KO/TKO/DQ/Submission (By Finish) (+180)
Belal Muhammad/Gilbert Burns Fight NOT To Go To Decision (-110)
Drew Dober to Win By KO/TKO/DQ (-115)
Kennedy Nzechukwu to Win By KO/TKO/DQ/Submission (By Finish) (+140)
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 Picks:
Main Card - 10:00 PM ET on ESPN+
Aljamain Sterling (+100) vs. Henry Cejudo (-120)
Belal Muhammad (+120) vs. Gilbert Burns (-140)
Jessica Andrade (-170) vs. Yan Xiaonan (+145)
Movsar Evloev (-900) vs. Diego Lopes (+625)
Kron Gracie (+145) vs. Charles Jourdain (-170)
Preliminary Card - 8:00 PM ET on ESPN/ESPN+
Drew Dober (-205) vs. Matt Frevola (+175)
Kennedy Nzechukwu (-175) vs. Devin Clark (+150)
Khaos Williams (-360) vs. Rolando Bedoya (+295)
Marina Rodriguez (-130) vs. Virna Jandiroba (+110)
Early Preliminary Card - 6:00 PM ET on ESPN+
Braxton Smith (+150) vs. Parker Porter (-175)
Phil Hawes (+160) vs. Ikram Aliskerov (-190)
Joseph Holmes (+145) vs. Claudio Ribeiro (-170)