By Gene Lesser
The UFC heads to Miami, Florida this weekend for the first time in nearly twenty years for UFC 287. The jam-packed card goes down this Saturday night, live from the newly named Kaseya Center. In the main event, Alex Pereira will look to defend his middleweight title against former champion, Israel Adesanya, who he took the title from just five months prior. Hometown hero and the self-proclaimed "King of Miami" Jorge Masvidal (#11 WW), takes on perennial welterweight contender Gilbert Burns (#5 WW) in the night's co-main event. The winner could very well be next in-line to challenge for Leon Edwards' title. The featured bout has "Fight of the Year" written all over it as the seasoned veteran, Rob Font (#6 BW), takes on the surging youngster, Adrian Yanez (#12 BW). As always, you'll find all of my picks for UFC 278: Pereira vs. Adesanya at the bottom of this article and you can find my entire Betting Predators MMA article pick history here.
All of the fight odds are provided by DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing. All of the stats are provided by UFCStats.com.
Alex Pereira (+115) vs. Israel Adesanya (-135)
To say that Alex Pereira and Israel Adesanya have a history would be an understatement. Saturday night will be the fourth time they have fought each other in their respective combat careers. To date, it is the current champion who's gotten the best of every single one of those matches. Pereira's power has been the difference every single time. Adesanya has looked pretty invincible throughout his combat career, but he can't seem to solve the puzzle that is Alex Pereira. He will look to change that Saturday night.
Adesanya has had success against Pereira in the past including nearly TKO'ing him, losing a controversial decision, and being in control through four rounds at UFC 281 before succumbing to Pereira's power in the fifth round. Adesanya has the blueprint to beat Pereira. Offensively, he's going to want utilize his feints and lateral movements while mixing in big kicks to Pereira's lead leg to keep him off balance. He will also look to counter strike the aggressive Pereira while also mixing in timely takedowns. Defensively, he needs to absorb less damage to his own legs while obviously avoiding Pereira's insane fight changing power punches. As for Pereira, who's defensive wrestling has given him problems in the past, will look to continue to shore up that area of weakness as he seems to do each and every training camp. He will look to continue to utilize his vicious legs kicks which, Adesanya admitted himself, compromised his movement late in the fight and led to him getting knocked out at UFC 281. Pereira will obviously look to land his big power shots in exchanges on the feet as that has been his bread and butter throughout his career.
Both fighters have had sustained success in their previous matchups, but in the end Pereira's power has been the difference. Can anyone bank on Adesanya avoiding Pereira's power for five rounds after such a big sample size? I don't know. How is Adesanya's confidence entering this fight knowing deep down inside that he has yet to solve the puzzle that is Pereira? I don't know. For me, this is more about a betting opportunity even if history is not on my side. In the UFC's "modern era," an immediate title fight rematch has occurred 12 times. In those 12 fights, a fighter who lost their belt and regained it in the immediate rematch has only happened three times in history (Randy Couture, Amanda Nunes and Deiveson Figueiredo). I realize that I'm bucking a serious trend here but I can not pass up a fighter of Adesanya's stature and skill at these odds. He has NEVER been this small of a favorite in his UFC career. I'm getting the more skilled fighter, with more paths to victory, and who's been in control of previous matchups against Pereira. The question is...will it be Pereira's power that does Adesanya and my bet in once again?
1.50 units on Israel Adesanya (-135)
Gilbert Burns (-450) vs. Jorge Masvidal (+360)
There is a potential title fight waiting for the winner here. I believe it's less so for Burns, but for Masvidal, given the bad blood between him and Leon Edwards and the UFC's propensity to quickly capitalize on storylines, there is a real chance.
But first, you have to ask yourself, where is Masvidal at this point in his career? He's lost three straight, granted against the top two welterweights in the promotion, but with the age 40 on the horizon, you begin to wonder if it's not only the level of competition that has lead to this losing streak. Burns got back in the win column after his own slump against the division's best, with a dominant win over Neil Magny. He knew Magny's weakness, exploited it, and quickly submitted him. He has the opportunity for that same exact path to victory here, especially if Masvidal has indeed lost a step.
Burns is going to look to melt Masvidal early with his relentless pressure grappling and superior Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, a style that has given Masvidal trouble in the past. If Masvidal has any chance of getting his hand raised, he's going to need to keep this fight standing. He does have solid take down defense, but against relentless wrestlers, he tends to gas a bit from having to stop multiple take downs. It also ends up forcing him to be conservative on the feet for fear of giving up a takedown. However, Burns is no stranger to getting sucked into striking exchanges on the feet. He's a competent striker in his own right with big power, but defensively he is hittable and susceptible to getting rocked with as little as a stiff jab.
I agree that Burns should be the clear favorite here, but should he be this big of favorite? No. For all of the questions surrounding Masvidal, the guy is still skilled and dedicated to his craft. He's too well rounded of a fighter with a legit path to victory, to be disrespected with a line like this. Not to mention, he will be fighting in his hometown and we know how that can sway judging as well. He can see the path back to a title shot with a win here. This is his last chance at touching gold and that's more than enough motivation to pull off the upset. Yes, Burns should win this fight, but I can not pass up the value I'm getting here. I believe there will be enough striking exchanges on the feet for the "King of Miami" to win this fight and cut the line to a title shot.
1.00 units on Jorge Masvidal (+360)
Rob Font (+155) vs. Adrian Yanez (-180)
The UFC knows exactly what they're doing here as this bantamweight fight is guaranteed to be fireworks. Rob Font is a pressure fighter who has incredibly slick boxing skills and he is no stranger to getting into absolute wars throughout his career. Adrian Yanez is a counter striker with beautiful boxing skills himself and propensity to bite down on his mouth piece and fight in a phone booth. This is UFC matchmaking 101, pit the young, surging prospect up against the division's seasoned vet who is the division's toughest test before reaching the upper echelon.
When I went back to look at the film on both fighters, one thing stood out most and that was the difference in power between these guys. Rob Font will be the fighter who puts up more volume, but it will be Adrian Yanez landing the more impactful shots here. Font will land more, but the lack of power will not deter Yanez from planting his feet and firing back with harder shots. It was something that was evident when Rob Font fought Marlon Vera last April. Font was winning rounds early with volume, but Vera's power and, more importantly, his pressure counter striking is what wore Font down. I expect the same thing to happen in this fight. Stylistically, Font is the perfect fighter for Yanez to style on. This is Yanez's moment to shine. The UFC knows it. Yanez knows it. And Font will know it after Saturday night.
2.00 units on Adrian Yanez (-180)
Chris Curtis (+105) vs. Kelvin Gastelum (-125)
If the Rob Font and Adrian Yanez fight does not win "Fight of the Night," this fight between Chris Curtis and Kelvin Gastelum will be the reason why. Both of these guys are tough, durable guys who will not shy away from a brawl on the feet.
Gastelum opened as the dog, but was quickly bet up to the favorite, and after you dive into this matchup more, you understand why. Yes, Curtis has no problem brawling, but he just doesn't throw enough consistently. He's a low volume fighter and that's not ideal against a fighter, like Gastelum, who is going to pressure and put volume on you. I also like the wrestling X-factor in this fight. Curtis has drastically improved his defensive wrestling since joining the UFC, but Gastelum is going to test it with his superior wrestling skills. Gastelum does a good job of mixing up his attacks and keeping his opponents honest when he isn't sucked into a brawl. Given the fact that he's been out a year and a half and looking to get back in the win column, I believe we see a disciplined and complete Gastelum performance. I expect to see Gastelum utilize a heavy leg kicking attack against Curtis who fails to check any leg kicks. This will keep Curtis off balance and allow Gastelum to mix in his timely wrestling to win rounds. Also, it can not be overlooked that he's been training at Fight Ready which is arguably the best fight camp in the game right now, and it is undeniably the best at game planning against opponents and exploiting their weaknesses.
1.50 unit on Kelvin Gastelum (-125)
"Underdog of the Night" Pizza Bet - Chase Sherman (+330)
Don't get me wrong, Chase Sherman isn't that good of a UFC heavyweight at this point of his career. Since his return to the UFC, he's gone 2-5 and left much to be desired in many of his decision losses. However, should he really be this big of an underdog against Karl Williams, who is also coming in on short notice? Not to mention, this will be Williams' second UFC fight. In his first fight, a few weeks ago, he won a convincing, but sloppy grappling heavy fight. Notably, he was severely gassed before the fight even entered the third round.
This is your typical grappler versus striker matchup. Williams will look to utilize his heavy grappling approach to win this fight while Sherman will want to keep the fight standing and utilize his striking and power. Given that this is a heavyweight bout where one punch can end the fight in combination with Sherman's octagon experience, I can not help but throw a little pizza bet on Sherman at these ridiculous odds. Let me put it this way, Williams was around a -250 favorite three weeks ago against a lesser caliber fighter...now he's around a -400 favorite against a better fighter? Yes, Sherman leaves a lot to be desired but I have to take a pizza bet shot at this price regardless of Sherman's recent run in the UFC.
"Prop Bet of the Night" Pizza Bet - Israel Adesanya Wins By KO/TKO/DQ/Submission (By Finish) (+275)
Israel Adesanya has not finished a fighter since September 2020, so why am I throwing a pizza bet on him to get one here? Well, as I noted in my lengthy breakdown above, Alex Pereira's power has been the difference in their fights and Adesanya can not afford to let Pereira hang around again. He was up 3-1 on the judge's scorecards before getting stopped in the fifth in their last fight. He knows that no "lead" is safe against Pereira, but he also knows that he can hurt Pereira himself. Adesanya rocked Pereira at the end of the first round of their last fight and if there was just another 10-15 seconds left, he would have got the finish. As Adesanya said in his press conference, this is his "one shot." He knows this is it for him, his last chance. He can not afford to play it safe here. He knows he needs to finish Pereira.
Some Other Prop Bets That I Like:
Alex Pereira/Israel Adesanya Does NOT Go The Distance (-150)
Adrian Yanez to Win By KO/TKO/DQ (+150)
Kevin Holland to Win By KO/TKO/DQ/Submission (By Finish) (+120)
Raul Rosas Jr. to Win By Submission (+165)
Kevin Gastelum to Win By Decision (+150)
Joe Pyfer to Win By KO/TKO/DQ (-105)
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 Picks:
Main Card - 10:00 PM ET on ESPN+
Alex Pereira (+115) vs. Israel Adesanya (-135)
Gilbert Burns (-450) vs. Jorge Masvidal (+360)
Rob Font (+155) vs. Adrian Yanez (-180)
Kevin Holland (-240) vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio (+200)
Raul Rosas Jr. (-240) vs. Christian Rodriguez (+200)
Preliminary Card - 8:00 PM ET on ESPN/ESPN+
Chris Curtis (+105) vs. Kelvin Gastelum (-125)
Michelle Waterson-Gomez (+140) vs. Luana Pinheiro (-165)
Gerald Meerschaert (+155) vs. Joe Pyfer (-180)
Karl Williams (-410) vs. Chase Sherman (+330)
Early Preliminary Card - 6:00 PM ET on ESPN+
Cynthia Calvillo (+240) vs. Loopy Godinez (-285)
Ignacio Bahamondes (-365) vs. Trey Ogden (+300)
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke (-190) vs. Steve Garcia (+160)
Jaqueline Amorim (-265) vs. Sam Hughes (+225)