By Gene Lesser
The UFC's "Super Bowl Weekend" is upon us as UFC 276 highlights the UFC's annual International Fight Week. The weekend is filled with a lot of fun, fan friendly activities including the UFC's Hall of Fame ceremonies. I highly recommend getting out to Las Vegas to check out International Fight Week at least once in your life. It's a great time, but enough of that, let's jump into the card itself.
UFC 276 takes place this Saturday night, live from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. The main event will feature a middleweight title fight between, the champion, Isreal Adesanya and the number one contender, Jared Cannonier. In the co-main event, Alexander Volkanovski and Max Holloway will run it back for a third time in a highly anticipated trilogy fight for the featherweight championship. The featured bout will produce the number one contender for the middleweight title when Sean Strickland takes on Alex Pereira in a bout that has "Fight of the Night" written all over it. The rest of the UFC 276 card is stacked as well. As always, you'll find all of my picks for UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier at the bottom of this article and you can find my entire Betting Predators MMA article pick history here.
All of the fight odds are provided by DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing. All of the stats are provided by UFCStats.com.
Isreal Adesanya (-475) vs. Jared Cannonier (+380)
Isreal Adesanya looks to continue his dominance over the middleweight division which is struggling to find viable contenders for the champion. Enter Jared Cannonier who Adesanya called the dark horse of the division a few years ago. He will look to shock the world Saturday night and be the first man to defeat Adesanya in the middleweight division.
What is there to say that has not already been said about Isreal Adesanya? We are witnessing greatness in real-time. He's a lock for the UFC Hall of Fame and to be mentioned amongst some of the greatest MMA fighters of all-time when it is all said and done. Stylistically, he faces a fighter who he has seen numerous times before. Cannonier is a fighter who is aggressive with big knockout power. However, what seems to set Cannonier apart from his contemporaries is his mental fortitude and toughness. He will not be broken easily as many of Adesanya's former opponents have been. Will that be enough though?
Cannonier is an aggressive, pressure fight with heavy hands and kicks. He's incredibly strong for the division. He is going to need to use his power to get Adesanya out of there. Adesanya is going to use his lateral movements as well as his elite fakes and feints to draw Cannonier's offense out. Adesanya is better everywhere. He's beaten better fighters. All he needs to do is avoid getting knocked out early. If he does that, I believe he puts on a striking clinic. He'll pick Cannonier apart en route to a finish.
I'm not laying -475 on any MMA fighter no matter what so from a betting perspective I'm staying away but if you scroll down to the prop section you'll see how I plan on attacking this fight.
Alexander Volkanovski (-190) vs. Max Holloway (+160)
Alexander Volkanovski looks to close the book on his rivalry with Max Holloway, while the latter hopes that the third time is the charm.
"If it ain't broke, don't fix it." Volkanovski is 2-0 against Holloway, decisively winning the championship rounds, rounds four and five in both of their fights. If Holloway expects to win, he's going to have to do something different, not only before the fight, but in the fight. Volkanovski's in-fight adjustments are a thing of beauty. It is what separates him from his counterparts. It is why he is the featherweight champ.
Their first two matchups were striking clinics. Both fighters are very high level, intelligent strikers which makes this rivalry exciting and competitive. The x-factor thus far has been Volkanovski's leg kicks and short range elbows. The leg kicks rack up points but, more importantly, they keep Holloway off-balance and throw off his timing. For Holloway, he's had success when he is pressuring Volkanovski. He can not allow him to dictate the range or the pace. Volkanovski loves to use his feints and fakes while mixing in those impactful leg kicks at range. Holloway's pressure helps to nullify some of that.
I believe we see much of what we've seen in the first two fights. This will be a close fight that most likely goes to decision. Holloway will have his moments in the early rounds, but Volkanovski will eventually pull away as the fight goes on and win this fight. I'm not laying -190 on Volkanovski given how close their previous matchups were though.
Sean Strickland (-125) vs. Alex Pereira (+105)
This has "Fight of the Night" written all over it. Not to mention that the winner is all but guaranteed the next middleweight title fight against Isreal Adesanya. Both fighters love to stand on the feet and slug it out. Alex Pereira is a kickboxer who has ridiculous knockout power in his hands. Sean Strickland is a more well-rounded fighter who loves to stay in his opponent's face while working behind his jab.
Both fighters have holes in their game that can quickly lead to their demise. For Pereira, his grappling is very suspect. He can be taken down and controlled. For Strickland, he keeps his hands down and relies on his head movement to avoid damage. You do not want to test your chin against Pereira. Pereira does not want to test his ground skills against Strickland. Something has to give.
I believe Strickland's ego will force him to test Pereira's toughness on the feet, but he eventually will look to get this fight to the mat where he is the superior fighter and has a clear path to victory. Strickland is the more seasoned fighter with the better resume and skills. The question is, can he be defensively sound long enough to implement his game and not get knocked out himself? It might be hairy, but I believe survives the early onslaught by Pereira and gets his hand raised Saturday night.
1.50 units on Sean Strickland
Robbie Lawler (-110) vs. Bryan Barberena (-110)
We have two grizzled veterans on the 18th hole of their fighting careers. Bryan Barberena retired after his win in March, but the UFC was able to entice him to come back to fight Robbie Lawler. Lawler is 40 years old and a fight or two away from retiring himself.
Both fighters have very similar fight styles at this point in their careers. They both will look to stand and trade on the feet while mixing in the occasional leg kick. This is a coin flip fight for me and normally you'd look to the dog, but the dog already retired. The UFC brought him out of retirement for this fight. Is he really "up" for this fight? Lawler showed in his last fight that he still has some fight in him and continues to improve at the ripe old age of 40. I have more faith in Lawler to be more defensively sound and also to have the grappling advantage if need be.
1.50 unit on Robbie Lawler
Brad Riddell (+125) vs. Jalin Turner (-145)
Two of the lightweights better prospects square off in a fight that could help to define their career. Jalin Turner is surging, looking like a legit title contender threat, while Brad Riddell is trying to bounce back from a tough loss against a top five fighter in the division. Riddell needs to prove that he really belongs amongst the divisions best, while Turner needs to prove that he's ready for the upper echelon of the division.
Riddell will look to stand in a phone booth and trade with Turner. Turner will look to use his range to keep Riddell at bay and pick him apart. Riddell often gets timely takedowns towards the end of rounds to steal the round, but Turner's superior grappling skills is not something he is going to want to mess with. Riddell is going to need to outpoint or hurt Turner on the feet to get his hand raised. Turner can win anywhere the fight goes. He can win the striking exchanges and/or the grappling exchanges. He is a very slick submission grappler. I absolutely love Turner here. I believe Turner is the real deal and this fight will go a long way to showing that.
2.90 unit on Jalin Turner
Brad Tavares (+130) vs. Dricus Du Plessis (-150)
These fighters are like two ships passing in the night. Brad Tavares is the definition of a gatekeeper in the middleweight division. His career is nothing to scoff at though. He's fought the who's who and has remained a threat in the division for over ten years. Dricus Du Plessis is finishing guys left and right on his quick climb through the division.
Stylistically, this is going to be an intriguing matchup. Tavares is a great point fighter. He works well behind his jab. He has incredible takedown defense and overall is a tough, durable fighter. Du Plessis is an awkward striker with fight changing power in both hands. He is also a strong grappler with very good submission skills. He locks up submissions at a moment's notice. The thing is that Tavares is so damn tough and has fought fighters that are way better than Du Plessis. He's lost to them, but it is not like he has not seen this kind of fight style before.
I initially leaned toward Tavares especially because he was the dog, but the more and more I studied this fight I could not help but pick Du Plessis. I love his aggression and fight ending capabilities wherever the fight goes. Listen, I could easily see Tavares working the outside and just out pointing Du Plessis to death. However, I think Du Plessis lands the more damaging shots in exchanges and live for the finish at anytime so I'm gonna ride with him.
2.00 unit on Dricus Du Plessis
"Underdog of the Night" Pizza Bet - Donald Cerrone (+160)
Jim Miller and Donald Cerrone are UFC lightweight legends towards the end of their storied careers. It's been nearly eight years since their first matchup when Cerrone knocked out Miller.
Cerrone is historically a slow starter with a good gas tank while Miller is historically a fast starter with a bad gas tank. If Cerrone can get out of the first round, I believe he will eek out a decision victory over Miller. This is truly a coin flip fight, so the value is on the dog. Not to mention, this is probably Cerrone's last fight and I could easily see the judges gifting him a close decision victory as he walks off into the sunset.
"Prop Bet of the Night" Pizza Bet - Sean Strickland Wins By Submission (+800)
I do believe Sean Strickland and Alex Pereira slug it out on the feet until one man falls, but one of them has a big flaw that could and should be exploited.
Pereira's grappling and takedown defense has improved in his short time in the octagon, but it is still a clear weakness in his game. With a coveted title shot on the line, it would be smart for Strickland to use his superior grappling skills to avoid Pereira's ungodly power, take him down, and lock up a submission. I'm not saying it will be easy, but at 8-1 odds, it is worth a pizza bet.
"Prop Bet of the Night" Pizza Bet - Isreal Adesanya Wins By Finish (TKO/KO, Sub, or DQ) (+120)
Isreal Adesanya is not going to take unnecessary risk in his fights. It is the reason he is such a smart and dominant champion. However, he has shown that he can and will end a fight when his opponent is overly aggressive. Jared Cannonier has a tendency of doing exactly that. He is an aggressive, pressure fighter who has been hurt in some of his most recent fights. He also defensively leaves himself open to taking damage on the feet. On the biggest fight card of the year, with millions of eyes watching, I believe Adesanya wants to make a statement and a statement will be made Saturday night.
"Parlay of the Night" Pizza Bet - Andre Muniz (-320) & Ian Garry (-180) = +104
Andre Muniz's stand up is getting better each time out, but it is his grappling that is next level. As long as he avoids something flashy from Uriah Hall, he will make quick work of Hall. I expect a first round (+180) or second round (+475) submission.
Ian Garry is one of the UFC's next big stars. The kid has it all, but he faces a tough, gritty fighter in Gabe Green who is going to bring the fight to him. I expect Garry to use his superior lateral movements on the feet to avoid Green's pressure and pick him apart. The kid is a sniper on the feet and I believe he gets Green out of there early.
More Prop Bets That I Like:
Andre Muniz to Win By Submission (-120)
Jalin Turner to Win By Submission (+600)
Sean O'Malley to Win By KO/TKO/DQ (+140)
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier Picks:
Main Card - 10:00 PM ET on ESPN+
Isreal Adesanya (-475) vs. Jared Cannonier (+380)
Alexander Volkanovski (-190) vs. Max Holloway (+160)
Sean Strickland (-125) vs. Alex Pereira (+105)
Robbie Lawler (-110) vs. Bryan Barberena (-110)
Pedro Munhoz (+255) vs. Sean O'Malley (-305)
Preliminary Card - 8:00 PM ET on ESPN/ESPN+
Brad Riddell (+125) vs. Jalin Turner (-145)
Jim Miller (-190) vs. Donald Cerrone (+160)
Ian Garry (-180) vs. Gabriel Green (+155)
Brad Tavares (+130) vs. Dricus Du Plessis (-150)
Early Preliminary Card - 6:00 PM ET on ESPN+
Uriah Hall (+270) vs. Andre Muniz (-320)
Jessica Eye (+245) vs. Maycee Barber (-295)
Jessica-Rose Clark (-155) vs. Julija Stoliarenko (+135)