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By Gene Lesser
As is the norm at this point, the UFC is back with another two-title fight PPV for UFC 274. It goes down this Saturday night, live from the Footprint Center in Phoenix, Arizona. In the main event, Charles Oliveira looks to defend his lightweight title for the second time when he takes on, madman, Justin Gaethje*. It's gonna be an action-packed main event. Don't blink. In the co-main event, Rose Namajaunas returns to defend her strawweight title against Carla Esparza, who bested the champion some seven years ago in the finale of The Ultimate Fighter: Season 20. In the featured bout of the night, Tony "El Cucuy" Ferguson looks to halt his three fight losing streak against the perennial title contender, Michael Chandler. This bout has fight of the night written all over it. Overall, it's a pretty solid card from top to bottom with some sneaky good preliminary fights. As always, you'll find all of my picks for UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje at the bottom of this article and you can find my entire Betting Predators MMA article pick history here.
All of the fight odds are provided by DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing. All of the stats are provided by UFCStats.com.
*Charles Oliveira missed weight by 0.5 pounds. As a result, he was forced to vacate the lightweight belt. Justin Gaethje is the only fighter in this matchup that is eligible to win the lightweight title on Saturday night.
Charles Oliveira (-140) vs. Justin Gaethje (+120)
Charles Oliveira has really come into his own as fighter over the past two years. His recent performances indicate that he's officially entered his prime. He is looking to defend his title for the second time Saturday night, but he faces a stiff test in Justin Gaethje, who is an all violence fighter that will surely test Oliveira's heart throughout this fight.
Oliveira's evolution as fighter has been a beautiful thing to watch. His striking is fluid with minimal wasted movements when throwing combinations. He also does a good job of mixing in heavy leg kicks that keeps his opponents off balance. Oliveira can hang with the division's best on the feet, something you could not say years ago. Where he really shines is on the ground, as the Brazilian jiu jitsu ace is quick to lock up a vast array of submissions at moment's notice. Gaethje is going to look to avoid having to contest the fight on the ground. He wants to keep it on the feet where he is a relentless striker that likes to counter his opponents with powerful check hooks. His boxing in general is crisp and powerful. Like, Oliveira, he mixes in devastating leg kicks to debilitate his opponents. I anticipate a striking clinic on the feet between these two for as long as this fight lasts.
I do not see this fight lasting 25 minutes. These men have fought a combined 38 fights in the UFC and only four of those fights have seen the final bell. Somebody is getting finished here and I believe that to be Gaethje. Listen, I believe that this will be a very competitive fight. I believe Gaethje has the skills to get the win. However, outside of a clean knockout by Gaethje, I believe Oliveira has him covered everywhere. Even if Gaethje rocks Oliveira, will he follow him to the ground and risk getting caught in a submission? He did not do that when presented with the same scenario in his last fight against Michael Chandler. I believe the grappling and submission game of Oliveira will be the difference in this fight. He is going to get a hold of Gaethje at some point in this fight and lock up a submission.
2.00 units on Charles Oliveira (-140)
Rose Namajunas (-225) vs. Carla Esparza (+185)
Rose Namajunas is the queen of rematches. This will be her fourth consecutive rematch and fifth overall rematch in her UFC career. She takes on Carla Esparza who hasn't lost in three years, won six straight fights, and beat her in their first official UFC fight. Seven years has past so it will be interesting to see how their styles matchup this time around.
This is your classic striker versus grappler matchup. Namajunas will look to keep this fight on the feet where she can utilize her boxing and slick leg kicks. She is one of the best boxers in the division. She uses her lateral movements and feints well. It helps to allow her to land those slick head kicks out of nowhere. Namajunas is not going to want to throw too many kicks in this fight though. Esparza relies on her wrestling to get her hand raised. Throwing too many kicks will allow Esparza to catch one of those kicks and take Namajunas to the ground. Yes, Namajunas is a slick submission artist on the ground, but that is often when she's on her opponent's back. When she is on the bottom, she can be control for periods of time. That is Esparza's game. She will look to get Namajunas down to the ground and suffocate her with top control and ground and pound. On the feet, she's an average striker that primarily uses it to set up her takedowns.
This actually should be a pretty competitive fight even with Esparza's striking deficiencies. Her wrestling and control is going to give Namajunas issues at some points in this fight. However, can she do it repeatedly and avoid the striking skill discrepancies? I do not believe she can. Sure, Namajunas has shown that she can be controlled for periods of time on the ground, but she has also shown that she works to get back to her feet while also threatening submissions. She does not simply accept being in compromising positions. And for that, I have to pick Namajunas here. What is keeping me off of this from a betting standpoint is Namajunas mental fortitude. She has shown to be mentally fragile at times in her career. It seems to have dissipated in recent years, but I could see a world where Esparza is taking her down at will, controlling her for long periods of time, and that leading to Namajunas breaking. I do not believe it happens, hence the pick on Namajunas, but this is women's MMA and I've seen crazier things.
Michael Chandler (-350) vs. Tony Ferguson (+270)
The UFC is treating the fans to an all-violence matchup when Michael Chandler and Tony Ferguson square off at UFC 274. Both fighters are on uncharacteristic losing streaks, looking to get a big win Saturday night to stay relevant in the lightweight division.
Both fighters have been in wars throughout their career. A boring fight is something they are not familiar with. Chandler is an athletic freak. He's a quick, fast-twitch striker with BIG power in both hands. He has a wrestling base that he rarely goes to, but when he does, his takedowns are explosive. He does have trouble controlling his opponent, but he looks for the opportunistic rear naked choke when they try and get back to their feet. Ferguson, was once pegged to be the one fighter who could beat the legendary Khabib Nurmagomedov. Unfortunately, the MMA gods did not allow that matchup to come to fruition as their fights were cancelled five separate times. Since then, we've seen him lose three straight fights and questions about his standing in the division are valid. He's a pressure fighter who relentlessly pushes forward, not giving his opponent any room to breathe. He's a varied striker who does not hesitate to throw any combination of punches, kicks, knees, and elbows. It's fun to watch. He attacks the body early and often with snapping front kicks and stiff punches. In general, he's a wild man who is unpredictable and unorthodox.
Simply put, this line is too wide in my opinion. If Ferguson truly is a shell of himself and gets starched early then this will look like a bad bet. Yes, Ferguson has not looked like the Ferguson we've grown accustomed before his three fight skid, but he is also fighting the the elite of the division. Chandler is not that. I believe Ferguson will withstand Chandler's early barrage and overwhelm him late with his relentless pressure and unorthodox striking.
0.50 units on Tony Ferguson (+270)
Randy Brown (+100) vs. Khaos Williams (-120)
Randy Brown and Khaos Williams are both looking to win their third straight fight in the welterweight division. Both fighters have looked good recently after some up and down performances early in their UFC career.
Brown's striking has improved recently, in particular, his footwork and movement. It helps him control the range and land his snapping jab and calf kicks. His opponent, Williams, likes to stalk his opponents looking to land a flurry of punches that is capped off by a big knockout punch. However, it is his emphasis on developing a more well-rounded game plan that has been the difference lately. He's mixed in a lot more leg kicks and grappling to round out his game.
I really like the evolution of Williams from being a one punch knockout guy to a well-rounded martial artist. I think his leg kicks will be a major factor in this fight as Brown likes to lean heavy on his lead foot and play the outside. I can see his leg being quickly compromised which will limit his mobility. Limited mobility will allow Williams to corner and land the knockout punch on a fighter who's shown to have a questionable chin at times in his career.
1.50 units on Khaos Williams (-120)
Tracy Cortez (-140) vs. Melissa Gatto (+120)
Tracy Cortez and Melissa Gatto square off in a flyweight fight between two of the UFC's most promising prospects in the division. Gatto is undefeated and Cortez has won nine straight fights.
Cortez is a wrestler who looks to get her opponent to the ground where she grinds out wins. On the feet, she is a low volume striker that isn't defensively sound. Gatto is an aggressive fighter who looks for the finish no matter where the fight takes place. She's strong and physical especially in the clinch. Her aggressiveness can get her into trouble as it leaves her open for takedowns.
This line has been dropping for a week now, and rightfully so. Cortez did not deserve to be the near -200 favorite where she was for the past couple of weeks. I like Gatto's aggressiveness. I like that she is physically strong. I like that she looks for the finish. I believe that will play well with the judges especially with Cortez's low volume striking, if she doesn't get the finish first.
1.00 units on Melissa Gatto (+120)
"Underdog of the Night" Pizza Bet - Francisco Trinaldo (-105)
Francisco Trinaldo does a little bit of everything. He hits hard, he can wrestle, he is a strong grappler, and he is pretty durable. Danny Roberts is primarily a boxer who does a good job of utilizing his footwork to keep his opponent from finding their range. The fight is properly lined as this is indeed a "coin-flip fight." However, I believe that the old man will use his well-rounded game to get the victory here. I believe that his grappling will be the difference here.
"Prop Bet of the Night" Pizza Bet - Rose Namajunas To Win By Finish (KO/SUB/DQ) (+200)
I believe Rose Namajunas has an opportunity to get the finish on the feet or the ground. The striking disparity between her and Carla Esparza is drastic. On the feet, Namajunas is more than capable of picking her apart on the feet and head kicking her into oblivion. On the ground, which is where Esparza wants the fight, will allow the slick submission grappler, Namajunas, to have enough opportunities to lock up a submission over the course of five rounds.
"Prop Bet of the Night" Pizza Bet - Charles Oliveira To Win By Finish (KO/SUB/DQ) (+110)
As long as Charles Oliveira avoids getting knocked out, he'll have more than enough opportunities to finish this fight. Justin Gaethje has been hurt numerous times in his most recent fights, so the potential for a knockout is there. And on the ground, Oliveira is light years ahead of Gaethje. Ultimately, I believe Oliveira submits Gaethje, but because of the knockout potential too, I'll ride with the finish.
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje Picks:
Main Card - 10:00 PM ET on ESPN+
Charles Oliveira (-140) vs. Justin Gaethje (+120)
Rose Namajunas (-225) vs. Carla Esparza (+185)
Michael Chandler (-350) vs. Tony Ferguson (+270)
Mauricio Rua (+195) vs. Ovince St. Preux (-240)
Donald Cerrone (-190) vs. Joe Lauzon (+160)
Preliminary Card - 8:00 PM ET on ESPN/ESPN+
Andre Fialho (-425) vs. Cameron VanCamp (+320)
Randy Brown (+100) vs. Khaos Williams (-120)
Macy Chiasson (+185) vs. Norma Dumont (-225)
Brandon Royval (-255) vs. Matt Schnell (+205)
Blagoy Ivanov (-140) vs. Marcos Rogerio de Lima (+120)
Early Preliminary Card - 6:00 PM ET on ESPN+
Francisco Trinaldo (-105) vs. Danny Roberts (-115)
Tracy Cortez (-140) vs. Melissa Gatto (+120)
Kleydson Rodrigues (-320) vs. C.J. Vergara (+250)
Ariane Carnelossi (+150) vs. Lupita Godinez (-170)
Journey Newson (+115) vs. Fernie Garcia (-135)