By Gene Lesser
A good deed is never lost.
The city of Jacksonville's good deed during the height of the pandemic and state lockdowns did not go unnoticed by Dana White and the UFC. The VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville, Florida opened their doors in May 2020 for three consecutive UFC events, including the massive and impactful UFC 249 PPV, when no one else would. Fast forward 23 months and the UFC is back in that same arena with an absolutely stacked UFC 273 card. The card features two highly-anticipated title fights, along with the return of the UFC's top prospect and superstar in the making, Khamzat Chimaev. In the main event, featherweight champion, Alexander Volkanovski, takes on the infamous, Korean Zombie (Chan Sun Jung) for the undisputed title. In the co-main event title fight, heated rivals, Petr Yan and Aljamain Sterling finally get to settle their beef in a fight that will determine who is the best bantamweight in the world. If all of that was not enough, in the feature bout, Khamzat Chimaev (#11 ranked WW) makes his highly anticipated return to the octagon to take on his toughest test to date in the form of the former welterweight title challenger, Gilbert Burns (#2 ranked WW). As always, you'll find all of my picks for UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. Korean Zombie at the bottom of this article and you can find my entire Betting Predators MMA article pick history here.
All of the fight odds are provided by DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing. All of the stats are provided by UFCStats.com.
Alexander Volkanovski (-720) vs. Chan Sung Jung (The Korean Zombie) (+500)
Volkanovski was originally lined up to fight Max Holloway for a third time, but that bout was scrapped due to the former champion getting hurt. Enter The Korean Zombie, Chan Sung Jung, who is looking to capture the belt for the first time in his storied UFC career. He has his work cut out for him against the champion, who's previous opponents have had a nightmare trying to figure him out.
The Korean Zombie moniker for Sung is apropos. He relentlessly pushes forward regardless of the damage he takes to do so. He just walks through it, looking to land a big shot on his opponent. He's a madman, but a skilled one. Volkanovski, on the other hand, is more of a cool, calm, and calculated striker who uses his fakes and feints to leave his opponents befuddled. He's a cerebal fighter who typically comes in with a bulletproof game plan to handle his opponent.
Sung is going to bring the fight to Volkanovski, but unfortunately for him, Volkanovski is not going to get into the prolonged wild exchanges that he wants him to. Volkanovski will utilize his leg kicks to keep Sung off balance on the feet and use his superior wrestling to take Sung down where he can land his vicious ground and pound. Sung really struggled against Brian Ortega who was able to take him down at will in their fight and damage him on the feet. I believe Volkanovski will do the same in this fight and ultimately land the fight finishing barrage of punches. This is a big line that I want no part of, instead I will look to the "Volkanovski To Win By KO/TKO (+180)" prop.
And still...
Aljamain Sterling (+330) vs. Petr Yan (-435)
There is a lot of heat coming into this highly anticipated bantamweight title fight rematch between Aljamain Sterling and Petr Yan. Their first fight ended in a controversial disqualification. Sterling got the better of the early exchanges, but Yan quickly flipped the script and dominated the rest of fight. He was on his way to a convincing win but, unfortunately for him, he landed an illegal knee that left Sterling "unable to continue." As a result, Sterling walked away with the belt and now we get the rematch.
I do not forsee much changing in the rematch. Sterling will look to utilize his forward pressure and wrestling as he did in the first round of the first matchup, where he was having success. He does not want to let Yan breathe. He does not want to let Yan dictate the pace or where the fight takes place. Ideally for Sterling, he is going to want to get Yan to the mat where he can allow his wrestling skills and jiu jitsu to take over. That is a lot easier said than done.
Yan is going to look to put a pace on Sterling. He will look to stay in Sterling's face, relentlessly pressuring him while using his slick boxing skills and underrated grappling to do the talking. The latter was surprisingly the difference in their first fight. Yan was able to use his own grappling to control and take Sterling down at opportune times. If Yan can control himself this time and not throw an illegal strike, then I believe he puts on an absolute clinic and dominates Sterling in the rematch. And, line suggests that is exactly what he is going to do Saturday night. Again, this is a big line that I do not want to get involved with. Instead I will look at "Yan To Win By Decision (+110)."
And new...
Gilbert Burns (+360) vs. Khazmat Chimaev (-490)
We are getting one hell of a matchup for the featured bout Saturday night. The former welterweight title challenger and perennial contender, Gilbert Burns, takes on the white-hot and seemingly unbeatable prospect, Khazmat Chimaev, in a fight that may very well determine the next title challenger in the welterweight division.
Chimaev has fought four times in the UFC. In that time, he's absorbed one total significant strike, finished every single one of his opponents in under two rounds, and received a "Performance of the Night" bonus as a result of those four finishes. The man is simply dominant. To this point, his grappling and wrestling is next level stuff. You add in his striking, which has shown to be good thus far, and you begin to understand the type of prospect we are dealing with here. Enter Burns, who will easily be Chimaev's toughest test to date. Not only in skill, but in resume as well as he's fought some of the best welterweights in the UFC, so he will not be intimidated by all of the "Chimaev hype."
Burns is a well-rounded fighter who really excels when the fight hits the mat, as he is able to use his strong grappling and superior Brazilian Jiu Jitsu skills to dominate his opponents. On the feet, he is a solid striker with legit knockout power. He does a good job of throwing slick uppercuts and check hooks off of his opponent's offense. We're in for a fun fight. MMA fans across the world will be glued to their TV to see if the hype is real with Chimaev or if he's got some more growing to do.
For me, I believe Chimaev is the next big thing and a future star in the UFC. I believe he will hold both the welterweight and middleweight titles at some point in the near future. He's legit, but even the best of the best have off days and lose. This is not boxing, the majority of MMA fighters, even the greats have losses on their resume, so I'm not saying he will never be beat. What I am saying is that he is going up against the second best welterweight in the divison and will make quick work of him. No different than what we've seen him do to all of his opponents to this point. The line is super inflated so I will not be playing him to just win, but I will look to get involved with him in the prop market with a "Khazmat Chimaev Wins By Finish (-190)" ticket.
Vinc Pichel (-125) vs. Mark Madsen (+105)
We get an interesting scrap to kick off the PPV portion of UFC 273 when streaking lightweights, Vinc Pichel and Mark Madsen, both look to make it four wins in a row.
We know what the former Olympic wrestler, Madsen, wants to do. He wants to get Pichel to the ground and control him for three rounds to a decision victory. Sure, his striking has improved, but it's still pretty rudamentary and he doesn't want to test it against Pichel. Pichel is not a spectacular striker but he's clearly better than Madsen and has some power in his hands as well.
The X-factor for me in this fight is cardio. Madsen's cardio is very suspect. He continues to have cardio issues as the fight gets into the later rounds and that's just something that you do not want to do against Pichel. Pichel is a dog. Pichel is going to make Madsen work. He is going to make Madsen work for his takedowns. And, he is going to make Madsen work hard to keep him on the mat.
As I breakdown this fight, I can not help but notice that the combination of Madsen's questionable cardio and striking up against Pichel's "dog mentaility," solid cardio, and superior striking, particularly the power is really going to give Madsen trouble. The pick is Pichel.
1.50 units on Vinc Pichel (-125)
Jairzinho Rozenstruik (-150) vs. Marcin Tybura (+130)
Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Marcin Tybura are looking to get back in to the win column and solidify their spot in the top 10 of the heavyweight divsion.
Rozenstruik has been a heavyweight contender for close to two years now, but when he faces the upper echelon of the division he faulters. He comes from a kickboxing background and it shows in his game. He throws vicious leg kicks and has legit one punch knockout power, but struggles in the wrestling department. He has solid takedown defense, but can be controlled if taken to the ground by strong wrestlers. His check left hook is money when it lands. Tybura will definitely have to watch out for those counters.
Tybura is a pretty meat and potatoes striker on the feet, outside of his head kicks. What he really looks to do is grapple and wear on his opponents. He likes to take them down and grind out victories from top position. It's a boring style but he's had success doing it. Will he have the same success against Rozenstruik Saturday night? That's the question.
For me, the answer is no. Rozenstruik may not be the best wrestler but he does do a solid job of stuffing takedowns or at the very least, making his way back to his feet if taken down. Tybura is a capable grappler, but he doesn't have the strength or wrestling control skills to hold Rozenstruik down for long periods of time. That means the fight will be contested on the feet for long periods of time and that is not good for Tybura. Not only does Rozenstruik possess the superior striking skills and power, but Tybura has been rocked in a handful of his most recent fights regardless of the end results. Not to mention, those fighters did not possess the power that he will face in this fight. I got Rozenstruik here and I will even sprinkle on him to win by KO/TKO/DQ (+110).
2.50 units on Jairzinho Rozenstruik (-150)
Aspen Ladd (+150) vs. Raquel Pennington (-170)
I'll keep this one short and sweet.
Raquel Pennington is an aggressive fighter who uses her aggression and strength to bully her opponents in the cage. Her striking is nothing special, but it's effective enough to score points on the judge's scorecards. She's a well-rounded fighter. Aspen Ladd, on the other hand, is all about the wrestling and grappling. She is strong in the clinch and does a good job of getting her opponents to the mat where she looks to control them and land ground and pound. On the feet, her striking leaves much to be desired both offensively and defensively. It concerns me a bit.
However, this is a pure value play for me. I do not think the gap between these fighters is as big as the line suggests. I feel like alot of this is due to Ladd's last performance where she was stuck in mud the whole fight. It was a bad performance, no doubt. Ladd has been inconsitent recently, but Pennington is not a world beater herself. Pennington is coming in on short notice and her bully like tendancies (grappling/cage work) will work right into Ladd's hands. She'll be able to ground Pennington consistently and land enough effective ground and pound to get her hand raised.
1.00 units on Aspen Ladd (+150)
"Underdog of the Night" Pizza Bet - Aleksei Oleinik (-110)
Aleksei Oleinik is a 44 years old heavyweight and it has shown in his most recent fights as he's now lost three straight fights. His chin looks like it's on its last legs. With that being said, I'm riding with old man here. He faces Jared Vanderaa who was underwhelming in his last fight against Arlovski. Does he have power? Sure, he's a heavyweight. However, it's not the type of one punch power that would worry me against Oleinik. I believe the grizzled veteran will withstand the early barrage, get Vanderaa to the mat, and eventually sub him. If Oleinik wins, it is going to be by submission so I suggest taking Oleinik to win and/or take "Aleksei Oleinik To Win By Submission (+150)."
"Prop Bet of the Night" Pizza Bet - There are so many intriguing props on this card that I could not chose just one. Here are some of my favorites.
Alexander Volkanovski To Win By KO/TKO (+180)
Volkanovski is landing some serious fight ending shots on his opponents over his past few fights, but his opponents just happen to be tough and lucky enough to survive his barrage. Jung has taken some serious damage against guys that do not have the power that Volkanovski has in his recent fights. It's just a pizza bet because history would point you towards a decision win, but I believe Volkanovski gets the job done and finishes Jung by KO/TKO.
Petr Yan To Win By Decision (+110)
Yan is a precise and methodical striker who looks to pick you apart for the entirety of his fights. As we saw in their first fight, Sterling is durable enough to hang with Yan. Sterling may not win, he probably gets dominated, but he's durable enough to last all five rounds. I believe Yan puts on an absolute clinic in route to a unanimous decision over Sterling.
Khamzat Chimaev To Win By KO/TKO/DQ (+120)
Burns has shown that he can be hurt on the feet and that he can't be submitted on the ground. Chimaev has the power to hurt Burns on the feet and he might have the skills to submit him on the ground. However, I believe the former happens here.
Jairzinho Rozenstruik To Win By KO/TKO (+110)
All of Rozenstruik's victories in his MMA career, except one, have come via KO/TKO. I believe Rozenstruik will be victorious Saturday night so, naturally, I have him winning by KO/TKO.
"Parlay of the Night" Pizza Bet - Alexander Volkanovski (-720)/Petr Yan (-435)/Khamzat Chimaev (-490) @ -115*
*DraftKings is offering "The Dan Le Batard UFC 273 Parlay Profit Boost" (25% Profit Boost)*
I believe that the three biggest favorites on this card will all put on spectacular performances en route to getting their hands raised Saturday night. Take advantage of the DraftKings 25% boost for this specific parlay.
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie Picks:
Main Card - 10:00 PM ET on ESPN+
Alexander Volkanovski (-720) vs. Chan Sung Jung (+500)
Aljamain Sterling (+330) vs. Petr Yan (-435)
Gilbert Burns (+360) vs. Khamzat Chimaev (-490)
Mackenzie Dern (-115) vs. Tecia Torres (-105)
Vinc Pichel (-125) vs. Mark Madsen (+105)
Preliminary Card - 8:00 PM ET on ESPN/ESPN+
Ian Garry (-380) vs. Darin Weeks (+290)
Jairzinho Rozenstruik (-150) vs. Marcin Tybura (+130)
Aspen Ladd (+150) vs. Raquel Pennington (-170)
Mickey Gall (+155) vs. Mike Malott (-180)
Early Preliminary Card - 6:00 PM ET on ESPN+
Aleksei Oleinik (-110) vs. Jared Vanderaa (-110)
Anthony Hernandez (-190) vs. Josh Fremd (+160)
Piera Rodriguez (-125) vs. Kay Hansen (+105)
Julio Arce (-180) vs. Daniel Santos (+155)