By Gene Lesser
UFC 272 goes down this Saturday night, live from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada with a relatively rare non-title PPV headliner. Bitter rivals, Colby Covington and Jorge Masvidal square off in a highly anticipated grudge match in the welterweight division. There is truly no love lost here. In the co-main event, former lightweight champion, Rafael Dos Anjos takes on Renato Moicano, who is stepping up on short notice. Finally in the featured bout, perennial contender, Edson Barboza looks to hand, the surging, Bryce Mitchell, the first loss of his career. As always, you'll find all of my picks for UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal at the bottom of this article and you can find my entire Betting Predators MMA article pick history here.
All of the fight odds are provided by DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing. All of the stats are provided by UFCStats.com.
Colby Covington (-320) vs. Jorge Masvidal (+250)
To say that these two fighters dislike each other is an understatment. The former friends and training partners, turned enemies, look to brutalize each other Saturday night. Both are former title challengers who are hoping that a big win Saturday night will get them back into the title picture.
Stylistically, there are no surprises here. Colby Covington is going to look to exploite Jorge Masvidal's suspect wrestling and maul him on the ground. Jorge Masvidal is going to look to exploite Colby Covington's suspect boxing/striking and pick him apart up on the feet. It's that simple. Sure both men are well-rounded and have shown success in their exploitable areas. Not to mention, the chances of their hatred emboldening their egos and leading them into furious exchanges early is likely. However, I do believe that they'll revert back to what's got them this far in their careers from a game plan standpoint.
Masvidal will of course welcome a brawl. I would not be surprised if he even tries to land something spectacular early like he did with his flying knee against Ben Askren. Covington's striking has vastly improved but he likes to use his striking to set up his wrestling. Masvidal is a strong grappler and scrambler when taken to ground so it won't be a cake walk for Covington, but ulitmately I believe his wrestling will be the difference here and lead to him getting a relatively dominant victory here over the course of five rounds.
I'm not comfortable laying such a big price in such a volatile matchup so I will just sit back and enjoy this fight as a fan.
Rafael dos Anjos (-165) vs. Renato Moicano (+145)
Rafael Fiziev was originally supposed to fight Rafael dos Anjos in a lightweight affair, but unfortuantely he fell ill with Covid-19 so Renato Moicano has stepped up on short notice to save the co-main event.
Moicano is taking this fight on five days notice and only three weeks removed from his submission of Alexander Hernandez. As a result, Dos Anjos is going to look to overwhelm Moicano and put his gas tank to the test. He will look to land big kicks and punches to the body to help gas Moicano out. Moicano is solid striker with big power, but that was getting him into trouble earlier in his career. He made the concious decision to get back to his superior grappling and it's paid off. He's won his last two fights via rear naked choke. After his most recent win, he said he wanted the big paychecks. Well, taking this fight on short notice to save the co-main event, will definitely go along way to achieving that goal.
I do not like the short notice flight from Brazil or the impromptu weight cut that comes with it, but I do like this matchup stylistically for Moicano and more than anything, his mentality coming into this fight. He knows the opportunity in front of him and is ready to capatilize on it. If this fight gets into the fourth or fifth round then I will definitely be worried given Moicano's short notice gas tank. However, I do not see it getting there. I believe that Moicano's size will allow him bully dos Anjos, get the fight to the mat, and hand dos Anjos his first submission loss of his career.
1.00 units on Renato Moicano (+145)
Edson Barboza (+145) vs. Bryce Mitchell (-165)
This is your classic striker versus grappler matchup as the dynamic striker, Edson Barboza, takes on the undefeated grappler, Bryce Mitchell in a featherweight bout.
Barboza's lengthy UFC career has been filled with notable matchups and highlight reel knockouts. He's known for his ridiculously powerful, fight ending kicks and overall striking. His fast twitch reactions allow him to throw spinning kicks at a moment's notice that often leave his opponents wondering what happened. He's a solid boxer with a solid jab, but primarily likes to counter his opponents with hooks. Mitchell, is the complete opposite, he is a relentless wrestler with active ground and pound. As one of the UFC's younger and better prospects, his game continues to evolve each time out, particularly his striking. He is noticably becoming more and more comfortable getting into striking exchanges on the feet and landing significant shots. Ultimately, he is looking to parlay his improved striking into openings for takedowns where he can overwhelm his opponents with vicious ground and pound.
At first glance, the price on the dynamic, veteran striker was tempting but ultimately I could not get there. Sure, Barboza could land a fight ending combination, but if he doesn't, then can he stop the relentless pace and takedowns of Mitchell. I do not believe he can. Mitchell may not land the first few takedown attempts, but eventually he will get them and that will lead to him overwhelming Barboza, a fighter who has a history of "accepting defeat" against relentless wrestlers.
2.00 units on Bryce Mitchell (-165)
Marina Rodriguez (-255) vs. Yan Xiaonan (+205)
This is an incredibly important fight for Marina Rodriguez and Yan Xiaonan, as the winner could very well be next in-line to challenge for the strawweight title. I'm surprised that this fight is so far down on the card given the implications and stylistic matchup.
Both of these fighters are high volume strikers who love to engage in lengthy striking battles on the feet. Rodriguez's striking is crisp. She works well behind her quick and percise jab that leads in to powerful combinations. Xianonan is more of a brawler. She will work behind her jab as well but relies on her power more than precision. This is a closer matchup than the odds would lead you to believe and that is ultimately why I got involved in this fight.
Rodriguez and Xianonan's striking is fairly even but I would give the slight edge to Rodriguez. Neither fighter has had success against wrestlers nor wants to engage in prolonged grappling exchanges. However, it is Xianonan that has shown the better wrestling/grappling accumen between the two. She is also the stronger fighter here and will be the one to win the majority of grappling exchanges. This was another hard fight to handicap. Rodriguez is surging right now with three straight wins and Xiaonan is coming off of a loss to the wrestling specialist, Carla Esparza (who they actually both loss to). That is the reason this line is what it is but I believe that recency bias has caused this line to be too wide. I can not pass up the value on Xiaonan here. She was a win over Carla Esparza away from a title shot. She is the fourth ranked woman in the divsion and matches up well against Rodriguez. Rodriguez's striking may make me look like a fool in the end, but I simply can not pass up the value here.
1.00 unit on Yan Xiaonan (+205)
Dustin Jacoby (-190) vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (+160)
We got one hell of a fight to kick off UFC 272 as Dustin Jacoby takes on Michal Oleksiejczuk in a fight that has fight of the night written all over it. Both of these gentlemen LOVE to stand and trade on the feet.
Oleksiejczuk is a slick offensive boxer who likes to pressure his oppponent while throwing fluid combinations to the head and body. He does some of his best work to the body though. However, he is more than willing to eat a shot in order to give one, when closing the distance. That is why I emphasized that he is an "offensive boxer." His opponent, Jacoby, is a skilled kickboxer who likes to work behind his jab while mixing in powerful and timely kicks. He effortlessly switches up his attacks and stances.
Oleksiejczuk is successful when he is pressuring his opponents. I do not believe that he will be able to consistently do that against Jacoby though. Jacoby's striking accumen is one that Oleksiejczuk has not faced in the UFC. Jacoby's feints will give Oleksiejczuk problems throughout this fight. He's had a tendancy in previous fights of biting on feints which has lead to him being picked apart. However, what I believe will be the difference in this fight is Jacoby's kicks. I expect Jacoby to use his teep/push kicks to keep Oleksiejczuk at range which will allow him to utilize his legs kicks to chop Oleksiejczuk down. That will limit Oleksiejczuk movement, which as previously stated, is a big part of his game. Finally, if there happens to be any grappling that occurs in this fight, it is Jacoby who will win those exchanges as well. I expect Jacoby to put on a striking clinic and KO/TKO Oleksiejczuk.
2.00 units on Dustin Jacoby (-190)
"Underdog of the Night" Pizza Bet - Maryna Moroz (+155)
Maryna Moroz and Mariya Agapova do not like each other. These former training partners have been going back and forth with insults and accusations for a long time now, but they finally get to settle their differences Saturday. This is going to be another action packed fight. I expect both of them to stand and trade until one drops. They both are fast paced strikers with power. Agapova is the slightly better striker with slightly more power, but she does throw alot of big winging punches that leave her open to being countered down the middle. Moroz loves to work behind her jab that she throws up the middle. Moroz is also the stronger fighter who can dirty up this fight and control Agapova against the cage for extended periods of time. I believe the will be a hotly contested fight between two fighters who hate each other, but I like the value on the dog here.
"Prop Bet of the Night" Pizza Bet - Kevin Holland To Win By Submission (+600) & Kevin Holland To Win By Finish (KO,TKO,DQ/Decision) (-120)
Kevin Holland is dropping down to welterweight where he should have been a long time ago. He is not big or strong enough to be mixing it up with middleweights and it showed as he was consistently taken down and controlled. Before even dropping a weight class, Holland was already focused on improving his wrestling and takedown defense. Enter Alex Oliveira who is an unorthodox striker who can also wrestle. However, the problem for him is that he is sloppy and has a tendency of "quitting" when things aren't going his way. Even if he gets the takedown, he won't be able to control Holland. Ultimately, Holland's length and precision striking is going to give Oliveira fits until eventually wilts. Holland has some slick submission victories in his career and his length in the welterweight divsion is only going to help him lock up even more submissions. I absolutely love the "to win by finish" prop and I will even sprinkle on the outright submission victory.
"Parlay of the Night" Pizza Bet - Dustin Jacoby (-190) & Kevin Holland (-365) @ -110
I believe that these strikers will have no problem picking their opponents apart on the feet in route to a finish. See my analysis above.
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal Picks:
Main Card - 10:00 PM ET on ESPN+
Colby Covington (-320) vs. Jorge Masvidal (+250)
Rafael dos Anjos (-165) vs. Renato Moicano (+145)
Edson Barboza (+145) vs. Bryce Mitchell (-165)
Kevin Holland (-320) vs. Alex Oliveira (+250)
Serghei Spivac (-200) vs. Greg Hardy (+170)
Preliminary Card - 8:00 PM ET on ESPN/ESPN+
Jalin Turner (-155) vs. Jamie Mullarkey (+135)
Marina Rodriguez (-255) vs. Yan Xiaonan (+205)
Nicolae Negumereanu (+125) vs. Kenndy Nzechukwu (-145)
Maryna Moroz (+155) vs. Mariya Agapova (-180)
Early Preliminary Card - 6:00 PM ET on ESPN+
Brian Kelleher (+475) vs. Umar Nurmagomedov (-675)
Tim Elliott (+205) vs. Tagir Ulanbekov (-255)
Devonte Smith (-155) vs. Ludovit Klein (+135)
Dustin Jacoby (-190) vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (+160)