By Gene Lesser
Houston, Texas has been the UFC's second U.S. home during this pandemic. This will be the UFC's fourth event at the Toyota Center in less than two years, more than any other U.S. location since 2020. UFC 271 features a highly anticipated rematch between Australasia rivals as middleweight champion, Israel Adesanya, takes on former champion, Robert Whittaker. In the co-main event, hometown hero Derrick Lewis looks to derail the surging Tai Tuivasa in a heavyweight bout that has "Knockout of the Night" written all over it. Finally, in the featured bout, Jared Cannonier (#3 ranked MW) and Derek Brunson (#4 ranked MW) face-off in a bout with major championship implications. The winner of this fight will take on the winner of Saturday's main event at some point in 2022 for the UFC's middleweight championship. As always, you'll find all of my picks for UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2 at the bottom of this article and you can find my entire Betting Predators MMA article pick history here.
All of the fight odds are provided by DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing. All of the stats are provided by UFCStats.com.
Israel Adesanya (-280) vs. Robert Whittaker (+225)
There's no love lost between these two middleweights as they enter the cage Saturday night. Israel Adesanya's vicious knockout of Robert Whittaker in 2019 established him as one of the UFC's best, while it also sent Whittaker to the back of the middleweight contender's line. It's been a long, arduous road for the former champion, but his determination has rewarded him with another shot at the title.
The loser of the first matchup often goes back to the drawing board and makes wholesale changes in order to win the rematch, but I do not think that would be wise for Whittaker here. Adesanya is a master at controlling distance. If you decide to point fight with him, he's just going to pick you apart. His patience and precision at range is Anderson Silva-esque. Whittaker has worked his way back to this point by being cool, calm, and calculated at range. He's done a great job of using in and out and lateral movements to keep his opponents off balance. This helps allow him to get his own offense off, particulalry that stellar jab. That game plan works against the rest of the division, but not against Adesanya. As a result, I believe we will see a lot of the same things we saw in their first fight.
Sure, Whittaker may take a more calcualted approach early, but he will quickly realize that more aggression is needed if he wants his belt back. Whittaker was landing big, fight ending shots in their first fight and he was having some success but, ultimately, Adesanya was able to eat those shots while countering with his own fight ending check hooks. Whittaker is going to have to press forward and really pressure Adesanya while being more defensively sound this time around. He will also have to do a better job of mixing in takedowns, which has given Adesanya trouble in the past. Two of Adesanya's toughest fights to date in the UFC were against Kelvin Gastelum and Jan Blachowicz, who both brought the fight to him. They stayed in his face, not letting him get comfortable or dictate the pace and fighting range in their fights. That is the only way I see Whittaker having any success in this fight. With that said, I still do not believe that it will be enough to get the win. Adesanya is just on another level. He fights as if he's Neo in the matrix, and to date, no one in the middleweight division has been able to figure him out. I do not believe that will change Saturday night.
As for a wager, I have this fight lined more in the -200 to -225 range for Adesanya. Their first fight was lined as a pick'em and I still believe Whittaker is a worthy opponent. At the current line, it is a no bet for me.
Derrick Lewis (-190) vs. Tai Tuivasa (+160)
We have an absolute banger in the co-main event! Derrick Lewis is looking to get back in the win column, in front of his hometown of Houston, against the surging Tai Tuivasa who's looking to crack the top-10 and get the biggest win of his career.
Don't blink folks. Both of these guys possess legit one-punch knockout power and it's more than likely that one will be going to sleep inside the octagon on Saturday night. Lewis is a patient striker who picks his spots to counter his opponents and land the kill the shot. Don't let his body fool you. He is an athletic heavyweight that will not hesitate to mix in a head kick or flying knee. Tuivasa will look to get the action going early as he typically likes to press forward, looking to land combinations that often lead to his patent first round finishes.
Betting on heavyweights is often a volatile endeavour given the punching power of both men, but I can not help myself. I like what I've seen from the re-focused Tuivasa. He was cut from the UFC after a three-fight skid but has come back and rattled off four straight knockout victories. Skill-wise these guys are pretty similar, but I believe Tuivasa's leg kicks will be the difference in this fight. His leg kicks have been a big part of his gameplan in his second UFC stint. Not to mention, fellow Australian, Mark Hunt, a fighter who Tuivasa models his game after, beat Lewis years ago behind those same vicious leg kicks. I believe Tuivasa takes a similar gameplan here. The legs kicks will help to keep Lewis off-balance and zap his punching power. Damage to the lead leg does not allow the fighter to comfortably push off of that leg and generate as much power when throwing a punch. When it is all said and done, I believe we will be watching a large Australian man sitting on top of the UFC cage, enjoying a liquid libation from the shoe of some unsuspecting spectator.
1.00 unit on Tai Tuivasa (+160)
Jared Cannonier (-160) vs. Derek Brunson (+140)
There is a lot at stake in this fight as the winner is all but guaranteed the next title shot in the middleweight division. Derek Brunson's move to Sanford MMA has done wonders for his career as the once middling middleweight is now just one fight away from a title shot. Jared Cannonier was one fight away from a title shot two fights ago, but he ended up breaking his arm and losing a decision to Robert Whittaker. After bouncing back with a win in his last bout, he's right back in the same position and it's easy to see why.
Cannonier continues to improve each and every time he enters the octagon. That is highlighted by his improvements in the grappling and wrestling department. His ridiculous strength helps aid in reversing positions and/or getting back up to his feet to strike. He will need to continue to show those improvements against Brunson who is a strong wrestler himself. Brunson will stand and trade with his opponents but he often uses his striking to set up his wrestling. He strong in the clinch and drags his opponents to the ground where he has excellent ground and pound. Wrestling will be a major factor in this fight, but it is the striking that I believe will be the difference maker here.
For all of the positives thrown on Brunson for his wrestling, it is his striking that is questionable. Sure he does have power in his hands and can definitely hang on the feet, but it is his defensive inefficiencies that will ultimately be his downfall. He continously keeps his chin in the air when entering or exiting striking exchanges. He often gets rocked in his fights, regardless of the final outcome. Cannonier is someone you do not want to test your chin against. He throws tight, powerful hooks moving forward but he also counters really well with check hooks. He also has sneaky good uppercut that will be handy against an opponent who will continue to level change and shoot for takedowns. I believe Brunson's five-fight winning streak ends Saturday night in vicious fashion. Cannonier will stuff enough takedowns to allow him to land a big, fight changing strike.
2.00 units on Jared Cannonier (-160)
Alexander Hernandez (+135) vs. Renato Moicano (-155)
Another entertaining fight goes down in the lightweight division between two fighters looking to find some traction in the division. Renato Moicano, the former featherweight, could not deal with the weight cut and decided to move up a divsion where he's seen mixed results. He is 2-1 in his new division but goes up Alexander Hernandez who is looking to make it two wins in a row himself.
This is a fairly simple breakdown for me. Hernandez is an explosive and dangerous fighter in the first round. He has big knockout power in his right hand and is a capable wrestler, but ultimately gasses as the fight goes on. Miocano is a very good grappler who has historically fallen in love with his striking, to his own detriment . He acknowledged as much in the lead up to his previous fight. In that fight, we saw him go back to his bread and butter and absolutley dominate his opponenet on the ground and get the finish. His one glaring issue is his chin. He has been knockout a few time in his career, including almost getting knocked out in his last fight. As long as he weathers Hernandez's early storm, his grappling will eventually take over and lead to another finish.
2.00 units on Renato Moicano (-155)
Bobby Green (-145) vs. Nasrat Haqparast (+125)
This is the perfect fight to kick off the PPV portion of UFC 271. This has fight of the night written all over it as both fighters are durable and love to stand and trade for the entirety of the fight.
Both fighters are slick boxers who do a great job of slipping punches and countering their opponents. They are fluid with their strikes as their combinations look effortless. Haqparast possesses a powerful left that can floor anyone at anytime. Green does a beautiful job of attacking the body and mixing in timely wrestling where needed.
I was salavating when this fight was first announced. Stylistically, this is the perfect matchup for Green. He does not have to worry about defending any type of grappling or wrestling and can even use his own wrestling to take his opponent down if he wants. On the feet, he is the slicker boxer who can counter the more aggressive Haqparast who is not as defensively sound. This often leads to him absorbing alot of damage in prolonged exchanges. I also believe that Haqparast's aggressive will be his downfall. Fighters who like to pressure Green often get countered at will by him. Saturday night will be no different.
2.00 units on Bobby Green (-145)
"Underdog of the Night" Pizza Bet - Jared Vanderaa (+130)
Jared Vanderaa's opponent, Andrei Arlovski, is an aging, yet crafty fighter who's done a great job of reinventing himself in the heavyweight division. He's transitioned into more of a point fighter, who gets guys to fight at his pace which allows him to grind out decision victories. Vanderaa needs to stick to his game plan, which is landing his combinations and looking to exploit Arlovski's fragile chin. Historically, Vanderaa has had real trouble with guys that try and wrestle him. Arlovski is not going to do that. This fight will be contested on the feet, right where Vanderaa's needs it to be in order to get the victory Saturday night.
"Prop Bet of the Night" Pizza Bet - Israel Adesanya Wins By KO/TKO (+165), Jared Cannioner Wins By KO/TKO (+130), & Bobby Green Wins By Decision (+120)
I normally only highlight one prop bet here, but there were a couple more props that caught my eye...
1. Israel Adesanya knocked out Robert Whittaker in under a round and half in their first matchup. I see Whittaker getting frustrated and anxious when he is being picked apart from the outside, watching his chance at regaining his title slip away. As a result, I believe he will get overly aggressive which will allow Adesanya to land the kill shot. Pizza bet on Israel Adesanya Wins By KO/TKO (+165)
2. Jared Cannioner, who at one time fought as heavyweight, is now competing as a middleweight. He lost all of the weight but definitely not the power. He now gets to face an opponent who has a notoriusly suspect chin and continuously gets rocked in his fights regardless of the final outcome. Derek Brunson has a bad habit of keeping his chin in the air when flurrying forward with combinations. I believe Cannioner makes him pay for this defensive mishap. Pizza bet on Jared Cannioner Wins By KO/TKO (+130)
3. Bobby Green and Nasrat Haqparast are decision machines. 13 of Green's 17 UFC fights have gone to a decision while six of Haqparast's eight UFC fights have gone to a decision. This fight will be primarily contested on the feet which works to Green's counterstriking and defensive prowess. He will get the better of the exchanges on the feet in route to a decision victory over the tough and durable Haqparast. Pizza bet on Bobby Green Wins By Decision (+120)
"Parlay of the Night" Pizza Bet - Ronnie Lawrence (-300) + Casey O'Neill (-400) + Kyler Phillips (-475) = +101
Ronnie Lawrence, a promising prospect, will utilize his relentless pressure and takedowns to get the victory here. Top prospect, Casey O'Neill, goes up against a pioneer in Women's MMA, but one who has already announced her retirement before this fight and one that continously talks about her life after the UFC...enough said. Kyler Phillips' multi-layered striking in combination with his shiftiness on the feet will overwhelm his opponent and lead to a finish.
UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker Picks:
Main Card - 10:00 PM ET on ESPN+
Isreal Adesanya (-280) vs. Robert Whittaker (+225)
Derrick Lewis (-190) vs. Tai Tuivasa (+160)
Jared Cannonier (-160) vs. Derek Brunson (+140)
Alexander Hernandez (+135) vs. Renato Moicano (-155)
Bobby Green (-145) vs. Nasrat Haqparast (+125)
Preliminary Card - 8:00 PM ET on ESPN/ESPN+
Andrei Arlovski (-150) vs. Jared Vanderaa (+130)
Roxanne Modafferi (+300) vs. Casey O'Neill (-400)
Kyler Phillips (-475) vs. Marcelo Rojo (+350)
Carlos Ulberg (-250) vs. Fabio Cherant (+200)
Early Preliminary Card - 6:00 PM ET on ESPN+
Mana Martinez (+235) vs. Ronnie Lawrence (-300)
Aj Dobson (-115) vs. Jacob Malkoun (-105)
Douglas Silva De Andrade (+175) vs. Sergey Morozov (-210)
Jeremiah Wells (-240) vs. Mike Mathetha (+195)
William Knight (+145) vs. Maxim Grishin (-165)