By Gene Lesser
The UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada has played host to several UFC events over the past month, but that will change Saturday night as the UFC heads a few miles down the road to the T-Mobile Arena for UFC 266. The event will cap off UFC's annual International Fight Week and, in typical UFC fashion, the card is stacked with some intriguing matchups. It will feature two title fights and the return of an UFC legend. In the main event, the featherweight championship will be on the line as TUF 29 coach and champion, Alexander Volkanovski, takes on fellow TUF 29 coach and former title challenger, Brian Ortega. The co-main event will feature, dominant women's flyweight champion, Valentina Shevchenko, as she takes on, the always tough, Lauren Murphy. Finally, in the featured bout, UFC legend Nick Diaz makes his highly anticipated return to the octagon after a six-year hiatus to take on, former welterweight champion, Robbie Lawler. Before we jump into the entire card, let's take a look back at the UFC's last PPV event, UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane. As always, you'll find all of my picks for UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega at the bottom of this article.
All of the fight odds are provided by DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing. All of the stats are provided by UFCStats.com.
Last Event's Recap - UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane Betting Record:
All Fight Picks: 9-4
Official Plays: 1-3
Units: -2.30
Casey Kenney (-125) lost a close, split decision to Song Yadong (+105). I believed that he would utilize his grappling to get the win, but he didn’t. In the end, Yadong was able to land the more meaningful shots on the feet. Next up was, Angela Hill (+125) vs. Tecia Torres (-135) and this was simply a bad pick. From the beginning, I could tell we had no chance of cashing this one. Hill was simply overmatched. Torres looks revitalized and ready for a run at the title. Michael Chiesa (-105) loss to Vicente Luque (-115) was a tough one. Chiesa implemented his game plan to a “T” and was just seconds away from a submission victory, but mistakenly left his own neck open for a choke during an offensive scramble. Luque is now one win away from a title shot. And finally, Jose Aldo (-115) was able to get us in to the win column with a vintage Aldo performance against Pedro Munhoz (-105). Aldo continues to impress even on the backend of his career. Let’s now turn our attention towards this week’s card, UFC 266: Volkanoviski vs. Ortega.
Alexander Volkanovski (-190) vs. Brian Ortega (+160)
Many wondered if Ortega's title fight loss to Max Holloway would better the young fighter or send him back to the bottom of the contender's list. The former was true as he looked impressive and secured a dominant victory over the Korean Zombie in his last fight. It is that performance that is giving Ortega backers the confidence that he's poised for the upset Saturday night. Natrually, the champion has other plans.
Volkanovski is a smart, cerebral fighter who will implement a strategic gameplan in order to defeat Ortega. His fakes and feints in combination with his leg kicks will be the difference in this fight. I beleive he will control the octagon and pick Ortega apart over the course of five rounds en route to a decision victory. I believe that we are getting great value on the champon at only -180. He should be in the -225 range.
2.50 units on Alexander Volkanovski (-190)
Valentina Shevchenko (-1500) vs. Lauren Murphy (+850)
It's hard to envision anyone beating Valentina Shevchenko, but Lauren Murphy will be tasked with doing just that after an improbable run to the title shot. If you can't match Shevchenko's skill, which most can't, then you better be tough and hope you can withstand her onslaught. Murphy is indeed tough, but is that enough to get the job down Saturday night?
No.
Murphy's toughness will keep her in this fight for longer than many of Shevchenko's previous opponents, but the end result will be the same. I expect the champion to put on an absolute striking clinic, brutalize the challenger, and get the victory via TKO/KO or submission. For me, the line is too big at -1400, but Shevchenko to win by finish at -225 is a good alternative.
Nick Diaz (+135) vs. Robbie Lawler (-155)
Though we have two title fights on this card, I'd argue that this is the most anticipated of the night. It's been 17 years since these guys last fought, 10 years since Diaz won a fight, and 4 years since Lawler has won a fight. That is why I do not understand this line. Based on the fighter's styles and recent performances, this should be a straight pick'em fight. It isn't.
Stylistically I like Diaz here. I believe that his volume will be the difference. Lawler's recent performances remind me of his counterpart, Tyron Woodley's performances, where they both have become hesitant to pull the trigger. They are slow to react to their opponent's offense which leads to them being on the defensive throughout their recent fights. That will be the difference here too. I see Diaz landing the more meaningful shots and being the higher volume striker which should be enough for the judges to reward him with a decision victory.
1.00 units on Nick Diaz (+135)
Jessica Andrade (-225) vs. Cynthia Calvillo (-185)
Both of these fighters are coming off of losses, but their performances were not the same. Andrade lost a hard fought title fight to one of the greatest fighters of all-time in Shevchenko. Calvillo, on the other hand, had an uninspiring performance that lead to a loss against Chookagin. The same Chookagin that Andrade made quick work of.
Simply put, Andrade is the better fighter across the board. She's a former champion and has the pedigree to become champion again. Calvillo is a solid, top-10 fighter, but she's just not on Andrade's level. This line is shorter than I thought it would be. I expect something in the -250 to -275 range.
3.00 units on Jessica Andrade (-225)
Marlon Moraes (+210) vs. Merab Dvalishvili (-260)
These fighters are going in opposite directions. Moraes has not looked good and has lost three of his last four fights. Not to mention, the one win in his last four was a very controversial one that the majority of media and fans thought he loss. Dvalishvili, on the other hand, has won six straight and looked very impressive.
Moraes is still a dangerous fighter, especially in the first round. He throws vicious leg kicks and powerful combinations but he tends to gas as the fight goes on. That is a recipe for disastor against Dvalishvili who is an absolute machine. The guy has ridiculous cardio to match his relentless takedown and pressure style. I believe that Dvalishvili absolutely overwhelms Moraes here.
3.00 units on Merab Dvalishvili (-260)
Dan Hooker (-155) vs. Nasrat Haqparast (+135)
Due to visa issues, both of these guys barely made it to the States in time to compete. They both arrived just days ago so you have to wonder how that will effect each fighter Saturday night. One thing you don't have to wonder about is if this fight will be in the running for "fight of the night." These guys are guaranteed to stand and trade throught this fight.
I can see Haqparast pulling the upset here. He is a beautiful, fluid striker on the feet who's got a good chin and good movement. However, this is a big step up for him. Hooker is only losing to the elite in the lightweight divison so far. To be honest, this is a step down in competition for Hooker. He is the faster, longer, and more well-rounded fighter. As long as he avoids getting into prolonged exchanges in the pocket with Haqparast, he will do enough to outpoint him on the judges scorecards. I really believe Hooker's size and strength will be the difference in this fight, especially in the clinch/grappling exchanges.
2.00 units on Dan Hooker (-155)
"Underdog of the Night" Pizza Bet - Jairzinho Rozenstruik (+260)
I definitely know that I'm playing with fire here. That is why this is only a pizza bet. Stylistically, Blaydes should be able to utilize his wrestling and control Rozenstruik on the ground throughout this fight. However, I have this weird feeling that Rozenstruik will land the knockout shot. It's that knockout shot that has seemed to be Blaydes' kryptonite in the past against similar stylistic opponents.
"Prop Bet of the Night" Pizza Bet - Valentina Shevchenko Wins By Finish (-225)
The Shevchenko line is super inflated and for good reason, given Murphy's skill set. However, her opponent is super tough and I believe that it is that toughness that will ultimately be her dowfall. I see Shevchenko putting on a striking clinic here and eventually finishing Murphy inside the distance.
"Parlay of the Night" Pizza Bet - Matthew Semelsberger (-525) & Jessica Andrade (-225)
Semelsberger's opponent is only fighting on this card because he is Nick Diaz's training partner. Diaz would only accept the Lawler fight if his training partner was on the card. The guy is not UFC caliber and he is more than likely going to be knocked out as a result of that. As for Andrade, I believe the UFC is giving her a "gimme fight" against Calvillo. Calvillo is definitely a skilled fighter and deserves the #5 flyweight ranking, but it will be tall task beating Andrade.
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega Picks:
Main Card - 10:00 PM ET on ESPN+ PPV
Alexander Volkanovski (-190) vs. Brian Ortega (+160)
Valentina Shevchenko (-1500) vs. Lauren Murphy (+850)
Nick Diaz (+135) vs. Robbie Lawler (-155)
Curtis Blaydes (-335) vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik (+260)
Jessica Andrade (-225) vs. Cynthia Calvillo (+185)
Preliminary Card - 8:00 PM ET on ESPNNEWS or ESPN+
Marlon Moraes (+210) vs. Merab Dvalishvili (-260)
Dan Hooker (-155) vs. Nasrat Haqparast (+135)
Shamil Abdurakhimov (+170) vs. Chris Daukaus (-200)
Roxanne Modafferi (+340) vs. Taila Santos (-450)
Early Preliminary Card - 6:00 PM ET on ESPNNEWS or ESPN+
Uros Medic (-130) vs. Jalin Turner (+110)
Cody Brundage (+110) vs. Nick Maximov (-130)
Matt Semelsberger (-525) vs. Martin Sano (+385)
Jonathan Pearce (+125) vs.Omar Morales (-145)