By Gene Lesser
The state of Texas will welcome the UFC back as UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane goes down Saturday night, live from the Toyota Center in Houston, Texas. In the main event, hometown hero and fan favorite, Derrick Lewis, takes on the surging and undefeated prospect, Ciryl Gane for the interim heavyweight title. The winner will be next in-line to face current champion, Francis Ngannou. Unfortunately the co-main event, which was a bantamweight title fight between Amanda Nunes and Julianna Pena, is off due to Nunes testing positive for Covid-19. The rest of card has some interesting divisional matchups that I look forward to breaking down. Before we get into those fights and some betting opportunities on this card, let’s take a look back at UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Dillashaw. Don’t forget that you’ll find all of my picks for UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane at the bottom of this article as well.
All lines below provided by DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. All stats provided by UFCStats.com
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Dillashaw Betting Record -
All Fight Picks: 7-4
Official Plays: 1-2
Units: -2.60
MMA judging will be the death of me, I swear. However, judging would not be a factor in our first bout as Ian Heinisch (-155) was TKO’d in the second round of his bout against Nassourdine Imavov (+135). I underestimated Imavov coming off of his loss to Phil Hawes. Imavov looked impressive. The judging would be a major factor in our second fight and boy was it brutal. Miranda Maverick (-155) lost via split decision to Maycee Barber (+135) in a fight that clearly saw her win the first two rounds, but somehow lose a split decision. The consensus amongst media and fans scored the bout for Miranda Maverick, but unfortunately the judges did not. The common saying in MMA is “don’t leave it in the hands of the judges” and that couldn’t be more evident than in this fight. It’s a tough pill to swallow, but we move on. Finally, in the headliner, one could say we got it back, as we were on the right side of a split decision when TJ Dillashaw (+165) beat Cory Sandhagen (-195) in a very close and fun fight. Dillashaw proved he’s still amongst the best in division even after a two-plus year USADA suspension. Let’s now turn our attention towards this week’s card, UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane as we look to get back into the black.
Derrick Lewis (+270) vs. Ciryl Gane (-350)
Derrick Lewis has a chance of capturing the interm heavyweight title in front of his hometown of Houston, Texas, while Ciryl Gane looks to remain undefeated, capture the interim title, and set-up a fight against his former training partner, Francis Ngannou.
Lewis’ game plan is pretty simple. He’s going to look to knock Gane out inside of five rounds. That’s it. It’s that simple. And that makes complete sense as the man has ungodly knockout power and has put that power to good use throughout his career. He has 12 knockouts in 21 career UFC fights, not to mention the ones before his UFC debut. When Lewis senses that his opponent is hurt, he pounces. He also does a good job of mixing in kicks to the body and head of his opponents, but he’s primarily looking for the knockout. Stylistically, he’ll have his work cut for him Saturday night when Gane enters the octagon.
Gane’s game plan in this fight will be simple as well. He will look to use his incredible foot movement to stay away from Lewis’ power and pick him apart from the outside with punches and kicks. Historically, that movement has helped him land 5.13 significant strikes per minute while only absorbing 2.60 per minute. He fluidly switches stances while utilizing a bouncing “in and out” base for his attacks. His movements really keep his opponents off balance and hesitant to get into an offensive groove.
Derrick Lewis’ power will always keep him in fights. He is always one punch away from changing the entire trajectory of a fight. He has a history of doing just that. Go watch Lewis vs. Volkov or Lewis vs. Blaydes if you don’t believe me. However, Gane is just on another level skill wise. I anticipate his foot movements and feints giving Lewis, a slow and plodding fighter, problems throughout their five round affair. Gane is a very high IQ fighter and he may opt to play it safe and just pick Lewis apart from the outside. However, I have a sneaking suspicion that he locks up a submission on Lewis. Either way, as long as Gane avoids the one-punch knockout from Lewis, he will win in dominating fashion. At the current line it’s a no bet for me. I’m scared off by the enormous line, Lewis’ 10-0 record in his hometown of Houston and his legit one punch, fight changing power. So I will just sit back and enjoy this fight as a fan.
Jose Aldo (-115) vs. Pedro Munhoz (-105)
This should be another fun scrap as the legend, Jose Aldo, takes on the always tough, Pedro Munhoz in a bantamweight matchup.
Aldo continues to prove that he’s still got it and that his move down to bantamweight has worked out. A lot of people questioned the move, but he’s had some success and has been competitive in all of his bouts at this weight class. In this particular bout, he’s going to look to keep the fight on the feet and utilize his counters while mixing in leg kicks. Let’s also not forget about those body shots. Aldo has some vicious, fight ending body shots that he’s increasing utilized late in his career.
If Aldo wants the fight to be contested on the feet, then Munhoz will oblige him. Munhoz does his best work on the feet. He is a high volume striker as his 5.60 strikes landed per minute would suggest, but he does absorb 5.87 strikes per minute so he’s definitely hittable. He also likes to mix in some heavy low kicks as well. He’s had great success recently with his calf/leg kicks.
Aldo has had a nice mix of five round and three round fights in his career. Lately, it seems like the three round fights are where he is having most of his success. This is a three round fight. I believe that Aldo’s path to victory will be those counters. He may take some damage early from the hard hitting Munhoz, but his experience and skills will win out over the course of this fight. I believe that he will land the more impactful counter shots, while also avoiding enough damage to win a decision victory on the judges scorecards. The pick and play is Aldo for 1.15 units (-115)
Michael Chiesa (-105) vs. Vicente Luque (-115)
Someone’s winning streak will come to an end in this intriguing stylistic welterweight matchup. A statement win by either guy will help solidify them in the title contender talk for the division.
Chiesa, the grappler, is going to want to get this fight to the ground where he can utilize his relentless wrestling. He averages a healthy 3.60 takedowns per 15 minutes. On the ground, he has heavy top pressure which helps him control his opponents. He also likes to use the “Dagestan handcuff” to stop his opponent from building a base and getting back to their feet. Luque, the striker, is going to want to keep this fight standing where he can let his hands go. He throws fluid combinations that are punctuated by his natural power. He lands 5.74 strikes per minute at a 54% accuracy. He also mixes in some serious leg kicks that do significant damage to his opponent’s legs. He’s not a slouch on the ground either as he likes to utilize his Brazilian jiu jitsu and lock up slick submissions.
Chiesa has not fought a striker like Luque. Luque has not fought a grappler like Chiesa. Something has to give in this stylistic matchup and I believe it will be the grappling of Chiesa. Chiesa has a high fight IQ and will certainly avoid long exchanges on the feet with Luque. His striking is solid enough to hang on the feet for a little bit, but ultimately he’ll look too used it to initiate his grappling. I believe Chiesa will use Luque’s aggressiveness on the feet against him. Chiesa will consistently contest the fight in the clinch and also land timely takedowns that will allow him to control the majority of the fight en route to a submission or decision victory. The pick and play is Chiesa for 1.05 units (-105)
Tecia Torres (-145) vs. Angela Hill (+125)
Angela Hill and Tecia Torres face off in a rematch, six years after their first bout in which Torres bested Hill via an unanimous decision. A lot has changed since their first fight as both women have evolved and improved as fighters.
Torres is a strong, scrappy fighter who is not afraid to get into a fire fight with her opponent. She is willing to take a punch in order to land a punch, but is ultimately looking to use her strength to control her opponent up against the cage and attempt takedowns. That is how she was able to beat Hill the first time around.
Hill is striker who has no problem getting into a fire fight as well. She’s aggressive on the feet. She consistently pushes forward throwing in combinations. She has good power in her hands and really sits down on her punches. She’s light on her feet and will look to use that to avoid Torres entries for takedown attempts and clinch work.
Both fighters have evolved and improved over the past six years but I’ve seen then most improvement from Hill. She is a better striker, has better takedown defense, is stronger, and has a better gas tank than she did years ago. One thing of note, Torres did struggle with Hill’s striking and attempting to close the distance in their first fight. Ultimately, she was able to utilize her grappling to get the win, but it was not easy. In this fight, I believe Hill’s striking and power will be the difference. I expect her to land the harder and more impactful shots in the judges eyes. Especially when Torres attempts to close the distance. Hill’s improved takedown defense will also help keep the fight in the most advantageous spot for her which is on the feet. If she is taken down, she is more than capable of getting back to feet. It is worth nothing that in Hill’s fight against Waterson, she was able to stop 17 takedown attempts from Waterson. I see Hill keeping this fight on the feet and getting the decision victory. The pick and play is Hill for 1.00 unit (+125)
Song Yadong (+105) vs. Casey Kenney (-125)
The early front runner for fight of the night kicks off the PPV portion of UFC 265. Song Yadong and Casey Kenney will look to get back in the win column in this bantamweight affair. Both of these fighters are high volume strikers. They average over 4.30 strikes per minute while absorbing over 3.60 strikes per minute. They are going to mix it up.
Yadong is a physically strong fighter who loves to go to war in the pocket. He is going to have the size and power advantage in this fight. He throws crisp, clean combinations with power behind them. Kenney is no slouch on the feet either. He has very good foot movement on the feet which helps him avoid damage. He loves to pressure his opponent, throwing in combinations, and landing hard leg kicks. He’s a very well-rounded fighter that also mixes in his grappling well.
This will be a close fight as the line suggests but I believe that the line is a bit short on Kenney. Yes Yadong is a dangerous striker with good foot movement and power on the feet, but he lacks in other areas. He takes too much damage for my liking on the feet and he also can be controlled on the ground in the later rounds due to his gas tank. I believe Kenney will be able to use his foot movements to land more consistently on the feet while also mixing in his takedowns. He’s more well-rounded and I believe his grappling and takedowns will be the difference in this fight. The pick and play is Kenney for 1.25 units (-125)
“Underdog of the Night” - Jessica Penne (+120)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz is coming out of retirement and off of four straight losses to take this fight against Jessica Penne, who won her last fight after a four year hiatus herself. Neither of these fighters are that good, relatively speaking, but for whatever reason, the books have Kowalkiewicz as the favorite. It doesn’t make sense to me. Kowalkiewicz wants to keep the fight standing as she’s more of a volume striker, but oddly enough she does not like nor reacts well to being punched in the face. Penne is not really gonna look to strike as she’s excels as a grappler, but, hey, if she lands a couple of big punches, Kowalkiewicz may just shell up and take her fifth straight loss. I have to go with the fighter who’s been more active recently and who has a clear path to victory with her ground game.
“Prop Bet of the Night” - Ciryl Gane By Submission (+650)
This is definitely a long shot as the odds would suggest but I do believe that there is a decent chance that this can hit. Gane has three submissions in his nine fight pro career and Lewis is terrible on the ground, outside of his standup game. Lewis’ only path to victory is landing the knockout punch and avoiding that power will be Gane’s number one purgative. Gane is a high IQ fighter and i believe that he realizes that taking Lewis down, dominating him, and submitting him is safest and best path to victory.
“Parlay of the Night” - Johnny Munoz & Alonzo Menifield (-118)
Johnny Munoz’s striking continues to improve, but it is his wrestling that will be the difference in his fight against Jamey Simmons. Alonzo Menifield continues to take incremental steps forward as a prospect in the UFC, but it is his insane power and Ed Herman’s questionable durability that will allow him to get the knockout victory here.
All Picks For UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane
Main Card (10PM EST on ESPN+)
Derrick Lewis (+270) vs. Ciryl Gane (-350)
Jose Aldo (-115) vs. Pedro Munhoz (-105)
Michael Chiesa (-105) vs. Vicente Luque (-115)
Tecia Torres (-145) vs. Angela Hill (+125)
Song Yadong (+105) vs. Casey Kenney (-125)
Preliminary Card (8PM EST on ESPN)
Bobby Green (+245) vs. Rafael Fiziev (-310)
Vince Morales (-105) vs. Drako Rodriguez (-115)
Alonzo Menifield (-250) vs. Ed Herman (+200)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz (-140) vs. Jessica Penne (+120)
Early Preliminary Card (6PM EST on ESPN)
Manel Kape (-195) vs. Ode’ Osbourne (+165)
Miles Johns (-210) vs. Anderson dos Santos (+175)
Victoria Leonardo (-115) vs. Melissa Gatto (-105)
Johnny Munoz (-310) vs. Jamey Simmons (+245)