By Gene Lesser
For the first time in over 16 months, the UFC will play host to a sold out crowd in its hometown of Las Vegas, Nevada. The highly anticipated PPV, UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3, takes place at the T-Mobile Arena this Saturday night. In the main event, Dustin Poirier (#1) and Conor McGregor (#5) look to close the book on their rivalry with a lightweight trilogy fight. The winner will be all but guaranteed a title shot against the champion, Charles Oliveira. In the co-main event, a welterweight fight with potential title implications goes down as former title challengers, Gilbert Burns (#2) and Stephen Thompson (#4) look to stake their claim to a title shot with a win Saturday night. Before we get into some of the betting opportunities on this PPV, let’s take a look back at UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov. Don’t forget that you’ll find all of my picks for UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 at the bottom of this article as well.
All lines below provided by DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. All stats provided by UFCStats.com
Gane vs. Volkov Betting Recap:
All Fight Picks: 7-5
Official Plays: 1-1-1
Units: -0.40
Another solid night of picks, despite the small negative number in the units column. We should have been 2-1 on the night and up in the units column, but unfortunately Fili (-230) vs. Pineda (+180) was deemed a no contest after an inadvertent eye poke. Fili was absolutely dominating the matchup, having earned a 10-8 first round and seconds away from two separate finishes. In the end, the accidental eye poke resulted in a no contest. Means (-137) also got us into the win column with a convincing decision win over Dalby (+110), and a top 15 opponent is next up for him. Finally, in the main event, Volkov’s (+125) value as an underdog was unfortunately not enough to get his hand raised against the surging Gane (-155). Although I said the winner would be next in line for a title shot, who knew that less than a week after the bout’s conclusion that the UFC would book an intern heavyweight title fight with Derrick Lewis. Nonetheless, let’s now turn our attention towards this week’s highly anticipated card for UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3.
Dustin Poirier (-135) vs. Conor McGregor (+115)
Whether you’re a diehard or casual mixed martial arts fan, you are probably pretty hyped up regardless for this highly anticipated trilogy matchup between two of the best lightweights in the world. Both fighters have knocked each other out in previous matchups and are now looking to break the tie and solidify themselves as next up for a title shot. Dustin Poirier passed up a chance at fighting for the vacant title, instead opting for life-changing money and a chance to close the book on his rivalry with Conor McGregor.
It makes sense too, as he is just six months removed from getting the biggest win of his career where he knocked out McGregor. This time around I expect him to implement relatively the same game plan, as he’ll look to work behind his jab and check right hook. The check right hook is what led to him getting the finish in the previous fight. You can guarantee that he will also mix in plenty of heavy leg kicks to McGregor’s lead leg, as that seemed to be a substantial factor in McGregor being uncomfortable and off balance last time.
For Conor this is going to be another top billing and record payday for him, something that he’s been accustomed to in his illustrious career. Beyond that, this fight is a chance for him to get back to his winning ways and a chance at another title. A 1-3 record since 2016 has brought his meteoric rise back down to earth. He will look to capture what once was. To do so, I expect him to use his lateral and in-out movement a lot more this time around. He will need to avoid Poirier’s leg kicks which will allow him to carry his power into the later rounds. Of course he will look to land his patent and precise counter left, but I believe he will be smarter and more defensively sound when throwing it as to not get caught by Poirier’s counter right hook. I believe in general, we’ll see a much more patient and collected McGregor. In the last bout, he seemed content on trading in the pocket, looking to land the kill shot without being defensively sound or using his movement. I believe that will change this fight and it could help him to get his hand raised.
For me, this fight comes down to one thing that I believe in my soul. I whole heartedly believe the MMA game, and particularly, the UFC lightweight division, has past McGregor by. He is still talented in his own right and can still win fights in the division, but not against the division’s elite. Poirier is amongst the division’s elite. Look at their career since 2016 when McGregor was at the top of game and Poirier had just suffered a devastating loss that sent him back to the drawing board. McGregor is 1-3 (including his boxing match against Mayweather) with all three losses coming by a finish. Poirier is 7-1 with four wins coming by finish against the division’s elite. Their UFC career trajectories are simply going in opposite directions.
McGregor is seeminglyu trying to capture what once was while Poirier is close to cementing himself as one of the division’s greatest of all time. Outside of that though, skill for skill, Poirier is just simply better than McGregor. Outside of McGregor landing a perfectly-timed and placed left hand, he doesn’t beat Poirier here. Poirier has way too many paths to victory in combination with his toughness and heart to not pick him here to win. His chin and heart alone are enough to withstand McGregor’s onslaught, and his striking, including his leg kicks, are just better than McGregor. His grappling and wrestling is far superior than McGregor and that aspect of the fight game has notoriously given McGregor troubles throughout his career. Finally, and maybe more importantly, Poirier has more heart and dog in him to go to war for five rounds. I picked and cashed on Poirier to “upset” McGregor six months ago and I’ll do so again here. However, this time, it won’t be as an underdog, but as the favorite. The pick 2.0 units on Poirier (-135)
Gilbert Burns (+140) vs. Stephen Thompson (-160)
Outside of the main event, this is the fight I’m most looking forward to for a couple of reasons. I want to see if Gilbert Burns’ really is a top 5 welterweight or just a product of the pandemic where he beat some washed veterans in route to a title shot. While on the other side, I want to see if Stephen Thompson can continue his late career resurgence and lock up another title shot. This is a very important fight for the welterweight division especially as Kamaru Usman decides who’s next for him for a UFC title defense.
For Burns, getting the fight to the ground will be his best path to victory in this matchup. He’s drastically improved his wrestling over the years training with the champion, Kamaru Usman. Not to mention, he is one of the best Brazilian Jiu Jitsu practitioners in the UFC so if he gets the fight to the ground, he can use his strength to control Thompson and transition to submissions. His transition game on the game is beautiful. However, if the fight is contested on the feet, Burns is no slouch there either. He has legit power and will look to cap off his combinations with that power. He will look to land his slick power uppercut as well his check hooks. Thompson has been hurt on the feet with those type of power shots in the past.
For Thompson, he would love for the fight to be contested on the feet and will look to keep it there. He's a skilled striker who's karate style often gives his opponents problems, and his style is indeed quite hard to figure out as he will constantly switch stances and utilize his foot movements, feints, and fakes to draw his opponent into uncomfortable positions. His striking is precise as well, as he throws good jabs and one-two's, with a very nice straight left that has decent power behind it. His kicks are varied as you'd expect from a karate-based fighter, and he also does a great job of managing distance and angling off when he lands his shots. I expect him to focus on this aspect of his game in order to stop Burns from getting him to the mat. Even without it, he has solid takedown defense that is aided by his length for this matchup.
It’s that length that I believe will help to keep this fight on the feet in combination with Thompson’s elusiveness and Burns’ fire fighting tendencies. Thompson lands 4.24 strikes while only absorbing 2.80 per minute, combine that with Burns’ recent propensity to get into fire fights on the feet, 3.22 strikes landed while also absorbing 3.04 strikes per minute and you have a recipe for a standup fight. If this fight is indeed primarily contested on the feet, then it is Thompson’s fight to lose. He is a puzzle that most fighters have had trouble figuring out in his career, and I believe Burns will be no different there. He has the power to hurt Thompson, sure, but can he land on Thompson? Thompson’s feints along with his precision striking will be the difference in this fight. Burns will have a tough time of cornering Thompson in order to land the big shot or get meaningful grappling opportunities to get Thompson to the mat. I believe Thompson picks Burns apart on the feet in route to a dominant decision victory and cements his name at the top of the UFC welterweight title contenders here. The pick is 2.0 units on Thompson (-160)
Irene Aldana (-115) vs. Yana Kunitskaya (-105)
This card is stacked with important divisional matchups that could have title shot implications. For Irene Aldana and Yana Kunitskaya, they are in a bantamweight division that struggles to find fresh, new contenders to challenge Amanda Nunes, the champion. A win by either woman in this matchup will at the very least get their names into the conversation as a potential future opponent for the champion.
I can confidently say that this fight will be primarily contested on the feet as both fighters do their best there, not to mention the fact that Aldana has a ridiculous 84% takedown defense in her nine-fight UFC career. Kunitskaya, on the other hand, averages 1.62 takedowns per fight at a 53% success rate, and I believe we’re in for a back and forth striking affair on the feet between these two women with Aldana having the clear advantage in power and output with 5.52 strikes landed per 15 minutes. Her problem, however, is that she absorbs more than she throws at 5.97 strikes per 15 minutes while Kunitskaya is much more defensively sound with 4.22 strikes thrown versus 2.62 strikes absorbed per 15 minutes.
Based on those numbers you’d think that I would be siding with the slight underdog in Kunitskaya, however I am not. I believe that Aldana’s high volume striking and her power will be more impactful on the judge’s scorecards. Aldana also does a good job of mixing lead leg kicks to keep her opponent off balance while throwing a hard jab behind it. Many of Kunitskaya’s troubles have come against strikers that can land in combinations and with power like Aldana can. I do think Kunitskaya is the stronger fighter and may be able to muddy up the fight with some clinch work against the cage. However, I like the younger and evolving fighter here in Aldana. She took her lumps in her last fight against the former champion and veteran Holly Holm. I believe that she has learned from that loss. Over the course of three rounds, Aldana’s striking particularly her power will be the difference in this fight. The pick is 1.25 units on Aldana (-115)
Niko Price (+150) vs. Michel Pereira (-170)
This bout has "fight of the night” written all over it. Niko Price and Michel Pereira are both action fighters who look to keep the pressure on their opponents while throwing a vast array of strikes from any and all angles. Niko Price is a tough, durable fighter that is looking to knock you out at all costs. He will look to use his forward pressure and blitzes to land big punches on Pereira. He is also methodical striker who does not really utilize feints which leads to him taking a punch to land a punch. He has no problem going to war with his opponents, while Michel Pereira on the other hand is notoriously known for his flashy striking. He throws a lot of wild, spinning strikes that has lead to him gassing in the past and dropping fights to opponents he was clearly better than. Since then, he has refined his game and become a more patient and calculated striker who uses his feints/varied striking to pick his opponents apart instead of showing off.
Pereira is finally harnessing his athletic abilities and is releasing them on his opponent in a more calculated and cerebral way, and he is just not as reckless anymore and as a result he’s looking the best he ever has in his career. Price is always live for the knockout and is tough enough to hang with Pereira for the duration of the fight, however I believe Pereira’s superior striking skills will allow him to pick Price apart across three rounds. Pereira’s foot movement and feints will keep Price guessing and off balance through out this matchup and ultimately lead to Pereira getting the win here. The pick is 2.0 units on Pereira (-170)
“Underdog of the Night” - Trevor Giles (+100)
Although there are a few fights on this card where I believe the underdog has a solid chance of winning, I did not want to list them here since I ultimately picked against them. Instead I’ll go with Trevor Giles (+100) who is ever so slightly lined as the underdog against Dricus Du Plessis (-120). Dricus Du Plessis won’t “wow”you with his athleticism or pace but he has some sneaky knockout power and a very good submission game. His fights have a 100% finish rate so there is always action. Enter Giles who has power in his own right, but is the more athletic and explosive fighter who is more defensively sound on the feet. He works behind his lightning fast jab while mixing in some timely wrestling. I also like that he continues to get better each time he enters the octagon so for that, I’m going with Trevor Giles for this week’s live dog.
“Prop Bet of the Night” - Dustin Poirier vs. Conor McGregor Over 2.5 Rounds (+125)
Both of these guys know what is at stake in this matchup. It’s a fight for their legacy and bragging rights, but maybe more importantly for both men at this point in their careers, a guaranteed title shot. Poirier’s dream is to be the undisputed lightweight champion. McGregor’s dream is to hold UFC gold once again and solidify himself as one of the greatest to ever do it. I believe that these guys come out a lot more cautious in this one, especially McGregor. In his first Diaz fight, McGregor was super aggressive looking to end it early and he ended up getting finished in the second round. In the rematch, he took a much more calculated and calm approach and that fight ended up going the distance. Combined, both of these guys’ have many paths to victory, especially Poirier, so I can not confidently say that this fight goes the distance. However, the magnitude of this fight and with what’s at stake, I believe this fight has a good chance of seeing the third round so I’m going with over 2.5 Rounds for this week’s prop bet of the night wager.
Bonus “Prop Bet of the Night” - Ryan Hall Wins By Submission (+500)
I’m going back to the well with my bonus “prop bet of the night” and focusing on a fighter that has a legit shot of locking up a submission in his matchup. Ryan Hall has won eight fights in his nine fight career. Five of those victories were via submission. While four of those submission were via heel hook. It may not be aesthetically pleasing to watch Hall fight at times, but one thing is for sure, he’s looking to rip your leg off at all times. His opponent Ilia Topuria is a young, aggressive fighter who has a black belt himself in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu. I believe that this will lead to him openly engaging Hall throughout the fight. Most of Hall’s previous opponents have looked to avoid Hall’s ground game and antics all together. Hall only needs one opportunity to cash this prob bet so I love the value regardless of who I picked to win the fight. It’s all about value and a clear path to cashing this so I’m going with Hall to win by submission for a juicy +500.
All Picks For UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
Main Card (10PM EST on PPV ESPN+)
Dustin Poirier (-135) vs. Conor McGregor (+115)
Gilbert Burns (+140) vs. Stephen Thompson (-160)
Tai Tuivasa (-130)vs. Greg Hardy (+110)
Irene Aldana (-115) vs. Yana Kunitskaya (-105)
Sean O’Malley (-1000) vs. Kris Moutinho (+650)
Preliminary Card (8PM EST on ESPN)
Carlos Condit (+160) vs. Max Griffin (-190)
Niko Price (+150) vs. Michel Pereira (-170)
Ryan Hall (+185) vs. Ilia Topuria (-225)
Trevin Giles (+100) vs. Dricus Du Plessis (-120)
Early Preliminary Card (6PM EST on ESPN)
Jennifer Maia (-190)vs. Jessica Eye (+160)
Omari Akhmedov (+145) vs. Brad Tavares (-165)
Zhalgas Zhumagulov (-320)vs. Jerome Rivera (+250)
Hu Yaozong (+105) vs. Alen Amedovski (-125)