By Gene Lesser
After a couple of weekends with no fans at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada, the UFC heads down to the Target Center in Houston, Texas to host a sold-out crowd for UFC 262. The vacant lightweight title is on the line when the surging, Charles Oliveira, who’s won eight in a row, takes on the former Bellator lightweight champion and UFC newcomer, Michael Chandler. The co-main event features another important lightweight matchup between fan favorite and perennial contender, Tony Ferguson and streaking contender Beneil Dariush. The rest of the card is chocked with exciting and meaningful fights as well. But before we take a look at some key betting opportunities on this card, as always, let's take a look back at UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Waterson and review our best bets. You’ll find my full list of fight picks for both the main card and the preliminary card at the bottom of this article as well, like always.
All lines below provided by DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. All stats provided by UFCStats.com
Last Week Recap: UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Waterson
All Fight Picks: 4-5
Official Plays: 1-1
Units: +0.10
We frustratingly ended up splitting our bets last Saturday night. Phil Hawes (+105) kicked off the night with an unanimous decision victory over Kyle Daukaus (-125) and a nice plus money cash for us. You can see that Hawes continues improve and, more importantly, work on his deficiencies each time out. Diego Ferreira (+165) frustratingly dropped us to 1-1 vs. Gregor Gillespie (-210). Ferreira looked like he had Gillespie figured out early too, as he was able to stuff takedowns, reverse positions, and ultimately win round one. However, Gillespie’s relentless pace eventually wilted Ferreira as he gassed out and succumbed to ground strikes in the second round. This week’s fight night card offers up some intriguing betting opportunities, however, so let’s now turn our attention towards UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler.
Charles Oliveira (-134) vs. Michael Chandler (+110)
Khabib Nurmagomedov retired, relinquished his title, and therefpre his reign over the lightweight division.
As a result, there will be a new UFC lightweight champion for the first time in more than three years as Charles Oliveira (-134) takes on Michael Chandler (+110) Saturday night in the UFC 262 main event.
Oliveira has grown leaps and bounds over the course of his career. He’s always had his grappling to fall back on as a legit Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt, but it’s his striking that has been impressive recently. He’s evolved into a crisp, fluid striker on the feet. He throws tight combinations in the pocket while mixing in leg kicks to his opponent's legs and body. He lands 3.22 strikes per minute and has a 52% striking accuracy.
Defensively, he avoids 54% of the strikes thrown at him, absorbing 2.94 strikes per minute. Michael Chandler would welcome a standup battle, as he's an athletic and explosive fighter with big knockout power. He lands 4.29 strikes per minute and has a 49% striking accuracy. He also avoids 52% of the strikes thrown at him, absorbing 3.76 strikes per minute. Charles Oliveira, on the other hand, will have the three inch reach advantage on the feet and look to keep the fight at range. Chandler will look to get in close, where he can land the big overhand shot and/or use his strength to grapple and get Oliveira to the ground, where he can control him from the top position. Chandler averages 2.37 takedowns per 15 minutes with a 41% takedown accuracy, but it’s a risky proposition against such a well-versed Brazilian jiu-jitsu (BJJ) practitioner who welcomes a grappling attack as well. Oliveira has solid takedown defense at 57%, but where he shines is actually in his 2.8 submission attempts per 15 minutes. Oliveria is great at being active and transitioning, as well as searching for a submission, no matter what his position is on the ground.
We have one hell of a lightweight title fight on our hands. These guys are so evenly matched, and the line reflects it. Chandler, who has tasted gold in Bellator, is more than ready for his chance to capture UFC gold as he will look to pressure Oliveira early and often. He will use his athleticism and movement to feint and draw out a response from Oliveira so that he can land the big overhand shot. He’ll attack the body as well.
As the fight goes on though, I see him using his grappling more and more to wear on Oliveira but also to give himself a chance to rest as well. Both guys’ gas tanks are a bit suspect, but I do believe Oliveira has the better tank here. Oliveira is simply going to look to use his range and reach advantage to pick Chandler apart from the outside, hurt him, drop him, and finish with an opportunistic submission. If Chandler chooses to grapple, Oliveira will then use his size to leverage Chandler, trip him, and get him to the ground.
Simply put, I believe that this is Oliveira’s time. He’s been on a tear and has shown a multitude of ways he can get the job done. He’s the more well-rounded fighter, better striker, and the more opportunistic grappler. Chandler will have his moments, but over the course of a five-round fight I believe Oliveria’s skills will win out. The pick is Charles Oliveira (-134), and I will put two units on him to win outright over Chandler.
Shane Burgos (-141) vs. Edson Barboza (+114)
This featherweight fight has “fight of the night” written all over it. There are two things that these fighters know and that is action and violence. Of Shane Burgos’ eight career UFC fights, three of them were fight of the night. Of Edson Barboza’s twenty-four career UFC fights, seven of them were fight of the night. Not to mention all of the other performance of the night bonuses that each fighter has racked up over the years.
We’re in for a treat here, as both fighters will look to keep this fight standing for the duration of the bout, and they come into UFC 262 averaging just 0.30 and 0.44 takedowns per 15 minutes, respectively.
Shane Burgos is a technical boxer who mixes in hard leg kicks to keep his opponents off balance. He also pressures his opponent consistently while throwing a ridiculous amount of volume on the feet. Burgos lands a crazy 7.31 strikes per minute with 50% overall striking accuracy. Edson Barboza, on the other side, lands 3.98 strikes per minute with 43% overall striking accuracy. Barboza has power in both hands, but his most dangerous weapon are his leg kicks. His leg kicking game is quite legendary as a matter of fact, and he throws a vast array of leg kicks with vicious intent that do some serious damage to his opponents.
Both of these fighters possess enough power to finish this fight but one of them has the better chin and that is Shane Burgos. I believe that he’ll be able to handle Barboza’s leg kicks/ power in general. Barboza, historically, has issues with fighters that stay in his face and pressure him with volume. That is Barboza to a tee. He will walk Barboza down for as long as this fight lasts and will land beautiful combinations that eventually will get Barboza out of there. The pick is Burgos (-141), and I put two units on him to win.
Jacare Souza (-115) vs. Andre Muniz (-108)
This is the UFC’s signature matchmaking is well at work here on Saturday night as the well-known, yet aging veteran fighter takes on his younger up-and-coming counterpart. That is what we have here as Ronaldo “Jacre” Souza (-115) takes Andre Muniz (-108) in a middleweight bout on the preliminary card.
This is the opposite of the fight I broke down above, as these fighters love to engage in grappling battles that allows them to lock submissions. Both of them are legit Brazilian jiu jitsu black belt practitioners. They average 1.4 and 2.2 submissions per 15 minutes, respectively. Many times in the UFC, when two fighter’s skill sets “cancel themselves out,” in particular grappling/wrestling they decide to strike on the feet.
Jacare Souza averages 2.53 strikes per minute while Andrew Muniz averages 2.21 strikes. Souza is the better striker - as he is the more varied striker - with good power. Muniz, on the other hand, throws a lot of looping hooks that are powerful but a bit sloppy. He does have a solid jab, but he often also uses that to distract his opponent so that he can attempt a takedown on his distracted opponent in the octagon.
For me, this fight comes down to the current path of each fighter. They are like ships passing in the night - Souza is a shell of himself and on his way out, and Muniz is improving each fight out and moving up the division. Souza’s wrestling has regressed with age as well as his chin, and I believe that Muniz will be able to handle himself on the feet and land a big shot that rocks Souza and allows him to ground and pound him en route to a knockout victory. The pick is Muniz (-108), and I put one and a half units on him to win.
“Live Dog of the Night” - Viviane Araujo (+115)
Last week, for my “of the Night” pizza bet/fun bet, I focused on a long shot prop bet - Maurice Green to win by submission (+500). The fight played out the way you’d want it to when taking a submission prop like this, as it was mainly contested on the ground. Unfortunately, De Lima smothered Green for three straight rounds and he could not lock up a submission in the process. This week we take a look at another live dog that I believe has a great chance of cashing, and that 'dog goes by the name of Viviane Araujo.
Former title challenger Katlyn Chookagian (-139) takes on Araujo (+115) in an important fight for the flyweight division as both fighters are ranked in the top ten and looking to compete for a flyweight title.
This is a close matchup, but the value is on the younger and ever-improving fighter with more paths to victory. Chookagian will look to do the same thing she always does, and that is strike at range and try to out-point her opponent while swaying the judges with her yelling after each strike thrown. Unfortunately, she’s fighting a woman in Araujo who is more well-rounded and has much more power to do damage with striking exchanges. Araujo's clear path to victory is to just wrestle and grapple throughout the fight, as she attempts 2.33 takedowns per contest with 64% accuracy to Chookagian’s 0.27 takedowns and 51% takedown accuracy. Ultimately, I believe she lands the more damaging strikes on the feet while mixing in takedowns to win rounds and win the fight. Viviane Araujo (+115) is my “Live Dog of the Night.”
All Picks For UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler
Main Card (10PM EST on PPV)
Charles Oliveira (-134) vs. Michael Chandler (+110)
Tony Ferguson (+135) vs. Beneil Dariush (-165)
Katlyn Chookagian (-139) vs. Viviane Araujo (+115)
Shane Burgos (-141) vs. Edson Barboza (+114)
Matt Schnell (-159) vs. Rogerio Bontorin (+130)
Preliminary Card (8PM EST on ESPN/ESPN+)
Jacare Souza (-115) vs. Andre Muniz (-108)
Lando Vannata (+100) vs. Mike Grundy (-124)
Andrea Lee (+105) vs. Antonina Shevchenko (-129)
Jordan Wright (-106) vs. Jamie Pickett (-118)
Early Preliminary Card (5:30PM EST on ESPN+)
Gina Mazany (-200) vs. Priscila Cachoeira (+155)
Kevin Aguilar (-103) vs. Tucker Lutz (-122)
Christos Giagos (-225) vs. Sean Soriano (+176)