By Gene Lesser
@MeanGene0022
Four hundred and thirteen days.
Hard to believe it, but it's really been 413 days since the UFC held a full capacity event in these United States. UFC 261 goes down this Saturday night, live from VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville, Florida. The city of Jacksonville opened their doors to the UFC in May 2020 for UFC 249 when California shut theirs just weeks before the planned event. Dana White vowed to reward the city and its fans with an epic card in the future. White kept his promise and will deliver an epic three-title fight card this weekend.
The first of the three title fights on Saturday night will pit one of the greatest female fighters of all-time and women’s flyweight champion Valentina Shevchenko against her toughest challenger to date in former strawweight champion Jessica Andrade. The second title fight will feature the sensational Zhang Weili as she puts her strawweight title on the line against the division’s former champion, Rose Namajunas.
And finally, in the main event, the welterweight title will be on the line once again when the dominant champ Kamaru Usman takes on Jorge Masvidal in their second career battle. But before we take a look at some of the key betting opportunities on this card, let's take a look back at UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Gastelum here below. As always, you'll also find my full list of outright fight picks for both the main card and the prelim card(s) at the bottom of this article. All lines are provided by DraftKings Sportsbook.
Last Week's Recap - UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Gastelum Betting Record:
All Fight Picks: 5-5
Official Plays: 2-0
Units: +2.11
It was a 2-0 night, but boy was it a sweat. It wasn't pretty either, as Alexandr Romanov (-135) got the night started with a technical split decision victory over Juan Espino (+115). He did it by taking an illegal knee that ended the fight early and put the fight into the hands of the judges. In the end, Romanov remains undefeated and looks to continue his climb up the heavyweight rankings. Luis Pena (-150) also eked out a split decision win over Alexander Munoz (+135) in a tough back and forth fight. The once-promising prospect is back in the win column and looking to gain some traction in his UFC career.
Zhang Weili (-200) vs. Rose Namajunas (+165) - Strawweight Championship Bout
The second title fight of the night should be a spectacular one. Zhang Weili is coming off her 2020 fight of the year against Joanna Jedrzejczyk and is now looking to defend her title for the second time against former two-time champion Rose Namajunas. Namajunas will look to use her feints and movement to stay on the outside, avoid Weili’s power, and pick her apart with jabs and one-two combinations. She’s one of the better boxers in the division and will also look to land a counter left hook or straight when possible.
Weili, on the other hand, has been susceptible to the left hand in her career. She's uber tough, however, and has a ridiculous chin that has shown it can withstand damage for five rounds. Namajunas is a slick submission grappler who looks to get to the back of her opponents and lock up chokes, so in order to neutralize her movement, Weili will look to establish her devastating leg kicks to gain an advantage.
Weili does a great job of attacking her opponent’s lead leg specifically, which in turn affects her opponent’s movement, and ultimately their striking. This will help Weili's overall strategy for Saturday night and allow her to punish Namajunas on the feet with her own punches as well. Weili throws crisp and heavy-counter left hooks that I believe will also hurt Namajunas. If the fight is contested in the grappling department, then Weili is the much stronger fighter here. She has great takedown defense and utilizes trips to get her opponents down and control them. In the end, I don't believe Namajunas will be able to handle Weili’s power and strength for the five full rounds. Namajunas may have success in the early rounds, sure, but eventually both Weili’s power and strength will overwhelm Namajunas and lead to Weili finishing her (most likely inside the distance). Two and half units on Zhang Weili to win this one outright (-200)
Uriah Hall (+100) vs. Chris Weidman (-125)
Both of these middleweight fighters are hoping that a late career resurgence will lead them to an unlikely title shot. Uriah Hall, a typical a slow starter, often has trouble with low volume and hesitancy in the first couple of rounds in his fights - and he's often losing these fights until he pulls off a spectacular knockout late. Chris Weidman, on the other side, often has early success in his bouts and is often winning his fights until he's the one who is knocked out spectacularly. Case in point - something has to give in this battle.
Simple and plain, this will be the best grappler/wrestler that Hall has ever faced. He’s had trouble with grapplers in the past, too, often getting taken down and controlled, and I believe Weidman will look to get Hall down early and often and control him for three rounds. Given his questionable chin recently, Weidman is not going to want to stand with Hall. Hall is the type of fighter who likes to pressure his opponents and land vicious, knockout power kicks, and he oves to lull his opponent into a sense of security before throwing an explosive kick that often knocks them out. On the feet, however, Weidman is more than capable of solid striking. He’s a crisp boxer with a nice jab and power behind his hooks. He will also mix in heavy leg kicks, and in the end, I believe that Weidman has more paths to victory than Hall does here.
Weidman is the more well-rounded fighter who can win both on the feet and on the ground if needed. He’s the better grappler, submission artist and also is the better pure boxer. The only thing that loses this bet for us is Weidman getting knocked out by Hall within the three rounds. Ultimately though, I expect that Weidman will utilize his wrestling and grappling skills to control Hall for three rounds and avoid a KO en route to an unanimous decision victory. One and half units on Chris Weidman to win outright (-125)
Parlay of the Night
Kamaru Usman (-435) vs. Jorge Masvidal (+320)
Valentina Shevchenko (-435) vs. Jessica Andrade (+325)
First Leg of the Parlay: Valentina Shevchenko (-435) - Valentina Shevchenko faces arguably her toughest test to date in the division when she faces Jessica Andrade. This is a test Shevchenko will ultimately ace, too, as I believe Shevchenko’s killer instinct, athleticism, power, and all-around skill will ultimately be the difference here. Andrade does have legit knockout power and can definitely hurt Shevchenko, but outside of that happening I don’t see how she will be able to hang with the champion for five rounds. Shevchenko is just the better fighter, anywhere and everywhere this fight can goe. I believe Shevchenko puts on an absolute clinic in this fight and finishes Andrade inside the distance. Then we wait until the main event.
Second Leg of the Parlay: Kamaru Usman (-435) - I don't see this fight being any different than the first matchup between Kamaru Usman and Jorge Masvidal. Usman outright dominated Masvidal throughout their first matchup, controlling him both in the clinch and on the ground. Usman was also able to land some shots on the feet, all while withstanding some of Masvidal’s big punches himself. While Masvidal believes that a full camp will allow him to properly prepare and defeat Usman, the extra time and training will not be enough against arguably the greatest welterweight of all time. I believe Usman will smother Masvidal yet again with his relentless grappling and eventually secure another one-sided, dominant decision victory. Two unit parlay on Valentina Shevchenko and Kamaru Usman to both win outright (-195)
Prop of the Night
Anthony Smith vs. Jimmy Crute - Does NOT Go To Decision (-177)
Both of these guys are finishers, and when they aren’t finishing their opponent, they’re getting finished themselves. For Anthony Smith, 11 of his 15 career UFC fights have ended in a finish (73%), including 10 of 12 dating back to 2016. For Jimmy Crute, all six of his career UFC fights have ended in a finish (100%!), and if we go back even further, 10 of his 13 career pro fights have also ended in a finish (77%). These guys are tough and fairly durable, sure, but the numbers point to this one not getting to the judge’s scorecards.
All Picks For UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2
MAIN CARD (10PM EST on PPV)
Kamaru Usman (-435) vs. Jorge Masvidal (+320)
Zhang Weili (-200) vs. Rose Namajunas (+165)
Valentina Shevchenko (-435) vs. Jessica Andrade (+325)
Uriah Hall (+100) vs. Chris Weidman (-125)
Anthony Smith (+160) vs. Jimmy Crute (-200)
PRELIMINARY CARD (8PM EST on ESPN)
Alex Oliveira (+125) vs.Randy Brown (-155)
Dwight Grant (-240) vs. Stefan Sekulic (+180)
Karl Roberson (+125) vs. Brendan Allen (-155)
Patrick Sabatini (-230) vs. Tristan Connelly (+180)
EARLY PRELIMS (6PM EST on ESPN2)
Danaa Batgerel (-182) vs. Kevin Natividad (+150)
Kazula Vargas (+195) vs. Rong Zhu (-250)
Qileng Aori (-110) vs. Jeffrey Molina (-110)
Na Liang (+165) vs. Ariane Carnelossi (-210)