By Chris Dell
UPDATE: I will be adding a cumulative "buy/fade" list at the bottom of each set of statistics below. This is meant to showcase our strongest buys and fades out of each list and focus on the golfers who make the buy/fade in at least two out of our three strokes categories. I also know that most books have different matchups options, so instead of just copying my picks, which I'm using from betonline.ag, you might be able to shop around and fit direct matchups between buys and fades as much as possible. The more head-to-head direct matchups between buys and fades, and not just one or the other, is your best way to go.
It's that time! Let's jump into the Round 2 data from the TOUR Championship on Saturday and determine which golfers we are looking to either buy or fade on Sunday for head-to-head matchups in Round 3 at East Lake. We will again be using three statistics - strokes gained approach, strokes gained tee to green and strokes gained off the tee - to determine the buy/fade golfer scores and our ratings for making best bets.
Remember, we will subtract a golfers strokes gained putting numbers for each set of those three data points. The premise again here is that putting is often unpredictable and will regress from round to round, whereas approach, tee to green and off the tee are the "sticky" stats that indicate which golfers are/aren't playing well in the moment. We will focus on one round at a time and not look at "overall" weekend stats.
Our "buy" golfers will be those with a rating of "+3" or higher. Our "fade" golfers will be those with a rating of "-3" or lower. For the sake of this tournament, however, and with the limited 30-man field size, I'm willing to stretch the numbers to +2 for buys and -2 for fades to give us more matchup options to bet:
Strokes Gained Approach (BUYS):
- Justin Thomas +4.01
- Hideki Matsuyama +3.80
- Sungjae Im +3.34
- Tony Finau +3.19
- Daniel Berger +2.56
- Victor Hovland +2.04
- Marc Leisham +2.01
Strokes Gained Tee to Green (BUYS):
- Justin Thomas +5.26
- Sungjae Im +3.36
- Bryson DeChambeau +2.30
- Scottie Scheffler +2.24
- Tony Finau +2.14
- Victor Hovland +2.11
Strokes Gained Off The Tee (BUYS):
- Justin Thomas +3.65
- John Rahm +3.09
- Bryson DeChambeau +2.13
*Players who qualified in all three stat thresholds are as followed below, with total combined net ratings. These are our strongest rated BUYS going into Sunday for Round 3 of the TOUR Championship. Yesterday, for the "net ratings," I only combined the numbers for each category that a golfer passed our threshold. For example, if Tony Finau was a +2.5 in off the tee and +2.5 in approach, I would make his net rating a +5.0. However, I'm now going to include all three of his stat categories to create the net rating. I want to make these rankings and scores as accurate as possible here, and have them paint the entire picture if possible:
- Justin Thomas (+12.92)
- Hideki Matsuyama (+6.31)
- Sungjae Im (+6.02)
- Daniel Berger (+5.49)
- Victor Hovland (+5.37)
- Bryson DeChambeau (+5.18)
- Tony Finau (+5.12)
Excluded from list: Marc Leishman and John Rahm - Although Leishman was hot in Round 1, his putting came back down to earth (and then some) on Saturday, finishing 5th worst in the field with -1.59 strokes gained putting. He did a little less than a half stroke on approach, which is how he qualified as a buy in that category with a +2.01 score. However, when adding his off the tee and tee to green numbers, his numbers wash out and his net rating actually dips into the negative. He also makes the tee to green fade list below, but his overall numbers in all three stat categories make him neither a recommended buy for Round 3, nor a recommended fade. Same goes for Rahm, who was absolutely atrocious on the back 9 Saturday, finishing -2.81 on approach, -2.49 tee to green and -2.21 putting. While the two strokes lost on putting would indicate a bounce back on Sunday, his other numbers are too poor for me to buy in. I wouldn't put it past Rahm and his talent - he simply could've had just a bad day - but the numbers don't add up (enough) for me to back him on Sunday. It looks like his hot streak from last weekend's win might be finally over.
Strokes Gained Approach (FADES):
- Sebastian Munoz -5.21
- Kevin Kisner -3.23
- Patrick Reed -3.03
- Tyrell Hatton -2.68
- Xander Schauffele -2.20
Strokes Gained Tee to Green (FADES):
- Sebastian Munoz -4.93
- Kevin Kisner -4.68
- Billy Horschel -3.56
- Kevin Na -2.70
- Marc Leishman -2.52
Strokes Gained Off The Tee (FADES):
- Sebastian Munoz -4.67
- Kevin Kisner -3.19
- Xander Schauffele -2.16
*Players who qualified in all three stat thresholds are as followed below, with total combined net ratings. These are our strongest rated FADES going into Sunday for Round 3 of the TOUR Championship:
- Sebastian Munoz -14.81
- Kevin Kisner -11.10
- Xander Schauffele -5.64
- Tyrell Hatton -5.61
- Kevin Na -5.58
- Patrick Reed -5.18
- Billy Horschel -4.83
Round 3 Matchup Best Bets:
- Justin Thomas > Xander Schauffele
- Justin Thomas > Dustin Johnson
- Hideki Matsuyama > Webb Simpson
- Hideki Matsuyama > Cameron Smith
- Scottie Scheffler > Patrick Reed
- Lanto Griffin > Patrick Reed
- Collin Morikawa > Tyrell Hatton
- Sungjae Im > Dustin Johnson
- Dustin Johnson > Xander Schauffele
- Ryan Palmer > Billy Horschel
- Rory McIlory > Sebastian Munoz