By Chris Dell
To view the full spreadsheet of updated round to round data for our Strokes Gained Ratings, click here
Primer/Intro: Last fall, I outlined how we can look for strong edges after Round 1 of a given PGA tournament using strokes gained statistics, combined with a little math. Using our "Strokes Gained Ratings" (SGR) formula, we will determine our buys and fades for head-to-head matchup bets and DFS strategy from round to round. Depending on certain courses we might look at some metrics more than others as well, but the primary focus will be on strokes gained putting, strokes gained approach and strokes gained off the tee. We will also refer below to "strokes gained ball striking," which is a combination of approach and off the tee numbers. Now let's dive into how exactly we'll use these numbers below.
In order to determine our buys and fades, we will simply subtract a golfer's strokes gained putting numbers from his strokes gained approach, off the tee and/or ball striking numbers. The premise here is that putting is often unpredictable and will regress more from round to round, whereas approach and tee to green (which combined equals "ball striking") are the "sticky" stats which indicate the golfers who are/aren't playing well in the moment. Our "buy" golfers will be those with a strokes gained rating of "+3" or higher, while our "fade" golfers will be those with a strokes gained rating of "-3" or lower. If two buys are facing each other in a head to head matchup bet, then we will pass, however we especially want to look for head to head opportunities where a "buy" is facing off directly with a "fade," and so on and so forth.
Strokes Gained is broken down into four categories, and depending on a certain course/tournament, we will look to target certain stats specifically to determine out H2H, round to round matchup prop bets.
Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
Strokes Gained: Putting
Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (which is Off-the-Tee + Approach)
Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (which is Ball-Striking + Around-the-Green)
Please Note: The recommended unit sizes below can be easily calculated if you base your "unit size" on either $10 or $100 or $1,000 depending on your bankroll. To figure how much you should put down per bet, just take your typical unit size and then apply the recommendation listed below. For example, if your typical unit size is $100 per best bet, then you should be betting either $5 or $10 on the outright winners and first round leaders listed below. A "0.25 unit" bet would be $25. A "0.5 unit" bet would be $50 and a "0.75 unit" bet would be $75, and so on and so forth. You'll note for each weekend that I typically have at least 75-80% or more of my action on either tournament head to head matchup bets (72 holes) or round by round head to head matchup bets (18 holes). These bets provide us with two-way action (the ability to bet on either side) and the most EV we can get out of our strokes gained ratings model. The difference in unit sizes within our head to head bets will vary depending on how strong a buy/fade or how strong a matchup rating is between two golfers. We'll dive more into the specifics this in future articles as I further explain how to best utilize our strokes gained ratings model for actionable wagers. For now we'll keep things as simple as possible here and list everything by bet type and in order of recommended unit sizes.
If “GOLFER A” has a +5.5 SGR score after round 1 and is facing “GOLFER B” who has -5.5 score after round 1, then this round 2 head to head matchup will rate as a +11 and likely rank as one of best bets we have on the board. Typically we look for matchups that rate as a +4.5 or higher AND involve either one buy or one fade from round to round. If a matchup rates as +4.5 and involves two buys or two fades, we likely will pass on this matchup or make it a smaller bet than normal. If a buy is facing a fade directly, AND/OR if a matchup has a rating of +9 or higher, this will rate strongly as a best bet and we will make it a larger bet than normal. For more on this strategy, just read this article: To view my strokes gained ratings model from The Honda Classic, which includes RD4 data/”All Rounds” data, click here to view the spreadsheet:
First Round 18-Hole Matchups/3-Balls (0.25 Units Unless Noted):
(0.5) List > Power @ BR -105
(0.5 Units) Gooch > Kokrak @ Bet365 -125
(0.5 Units) Laird > McNealy @ BO -110
(0.5 Units) Pereira > McNealy @ DK +100
(0.5) Streelman > McNealy @ BR +104
(0.5) Ghim > Merritt @ BR -117
(0.5 Units) Hatton > Casey @ DK -110
Hatton > Lowry @ BO -110
Conners > Ancer @ DK -110
Conners > Garcia @ Bet365 -120
Hovland > Smith @ DK -120
Hovland > Cantlay @ BR -120
Hoge > Noren @ BO -115
Laird > Im @ BR +135
Rahm > Cantlay @ BO -132
List > Hadwin @ BO -110
Ancer > Casey @ Bet365 -110
Burns > Casey @ BR -132
Cink > Reavie @ BO -105
Buckley > Watney @ BR +108
Westwood +0.5 > Kokrak @ BO -115
Ghim > Merritt/Stallings @ DK +170
Buckley > Watney/Piercy @ DK +175
Ryder > Tringale/Wallace @ DK +240
List > Power/T. Moore @ CZ +175
Herbert > Todd/Reavie @ DK +170
= 8.25 Units
First Round Leader/First Round Finishes:
(0.2 Units) Conners T5 After RD1, 14:1 @ Bet365
(0.1 Units) Conners 70:1 @ MB
(0.15) Hovland T5 After RD1, +900 @ Bet365
(0.10) Hovland 40:1 @ BR
(0.1) Hoge T5 After RD1, 20:1 @ DK
(0.1) Hoge 110:1 @ FD
(0.1) Rahm 28:1 @ BR
(0.1) Hatton 65:1 @ DK
(0.1) Gooch 70:1 @ MB
(0.1) List 110:1 @ DK
(0.1) Laird 150:1 @ DK
(0.1) Scheffler 40:1 @ BR
(0.05) Pendrith 140:1 @ DK
(0.05) Fleetwood 80:1 @ FD
(0.05) Homa 70:1 @ DK
= 1.5 Units
Outright Winners:
(0.20 Units) Conners 65:1 @ FD
(0.15) Conners 70:1 @ DK
(0.20) Hovland 20:1 @ FD
(0.10) Hovland 22:1 @ FD
(0.20) Hoge 150:1 @ FD
(0.05) Hoge 160:1 @ FD
(0.1) Hatton 50:1 @ FD
(0.1) Hatton 65:1 @ DK
(0.1) Gooch 65:1 @ FD
(0.1) Gooch 66:1 @ BR
(0.1) Rahm 14:1 @ FD
(0.1) Rahm 14:1 @ CZ
(0.10) Laird 150:1 @ FD
(0.05) Laird 340:1 @ FD
(0.10) List 120:1 @ FD
(0.05) List 210:1 @ FD
(0.05) Pendrith 200:1 @ DK
(0.05) Pendrith 550:1 @ FD
(0.1) Scheffler 28:1 @ FD
= 2 Units
Lowest Round Score (All Rounds):
(0.20 Units) Conners 65:1 @ DK
(0.15) Hovland 33:1 @ BR
(0.10) Hoge 130:1 @ DK
(0.10) Rahm 20:1 @ BR
(0.05) Hatton 60:1 @ DK
(0.05) Gooch 70:1 @ BR
(0.05) List 150:1 @ DK
(0.05) Laird 200:1 @ DK
= 0.75 Units
Novelty Finish/Nationality Props (0.25 Units Each):
Conners Top Canadian @ Bet365 +163
Hovland Top Scandinavian @ Bet365 -160
Hoge Top American @ FD 110:1
Hoge Top 5 American @ BR 10:1
Laird Top Scotsman @ Bet365 -120
= 1.25 Unit
Tournament Finish Props (0.25 Units Each):
Conners T40 @ Bet365 +105
Hovland T30 @ FD -105
Hoge T40 @ Bet365 +175
Rahm T20 @ MB -110
Hatton T40 @ Bet365 -105
Gooch T40 @ Bet365 +110
List T40 @ FD +220
Laird T40 @ DK +275
= 2 Units
Make/Miss Cut Props (0.25 Units Each Unless Noted):
(0.5 Units) McNealy MISS Cut @ FD +112
Casey MISS Cut +150 @ Bet365
Kokrak MISS Cut +120 @ Bet365
Power MISS Cut @ FD -112
List MAKE Cut @ FD +102
Hoge MAKE Cut @ FD -126
= 1.75 Units
Tournament 72-Hole Matchups (0.25 Units Unless Noted):
(0.5 Units) Hatton > Casey @ DK -110
Hatton > Zalatoris @ FD -102
Hatton > Lowry @ BO -120
Hatton > Scott @ BO -115
Conners > Kim @ DK -110
Conners > Niemann @ MB -115
Conners > Oosthuizen @ BO -110
Hovland > JT @ FD +112
Hovland > Cantlay @ BO -110
Hovland > Xander @ MB -115
Hoge > Hughes @ DK -140
Hoge > Watson @ BO -110
Gooch > Ancer @ DK -120
Gooch > Oosthuizen @ FD +102
Gooch > Henley @ BR -103
Rahm > Cantlay @ BR -137
Rahm > JT @ DK -120
Rahm > Morikawa @ BO -135
Laird > Straka @ BO -129
List > Harman @ MB +105
——
(0.5 Units) Young > McNealy @ DK -120
(0.5 Units) Bradley > McNealy @ BO -135
Noren > Kokrak @ DK -110
Simpson > Kokrak @ BO -129
Finau > Kokrak @ BO -110
Rose > Casey @ BR -110
Kim > Casey @ FD -126
Poston > Glover @ BO -115
Mitchell > Power @ MB -105
Kizzire > Perez @ BetDSI -110
Ghim > Reavie @ BO +100
= 9.25 Units
Full Betting Card Summary
- (5) Novelty/Nationality Props = 1.25 Unit
- (6) Make/Miss Cut Props = 1.75 Units
- (8) Tournament Finish Props = 2 Units
- (8) Lowest Round Score Props = 0.75 Units
- (10) Outright Winner Props = 2 Units
- (15) First Round Finish Props = 1.5 Units
- (26) First Round 18-Hole Matchups/3-Balls = 8.25 units
- (31) Tournament 72-Hole Matchups = 8.5 units
- Total = 26 Units
Strokes Gained Ratings Key/Abbreviations
*Asterisk(s) indicates the number of statistical thresholds a golfer qualifies as a "buy" or "fade"
Strokes Gained Putting
Strokes Gained Ball Striking
Strokes Gained Tee To Green
Strokes Gained Gained Net Rating - Ball Striking
Strokes Gained Net Rating - Tee To Green
SGR = Strokes Gained Rating
BS = Ball Striking
OTT = Off The Tee
APP = Approach
PUTT = Putting
ARG = Around The Green
T2G = Tee To Green
FRL = First Round Leader
SRL = Second Round Leader
TRL = Third Round Leader
DK = DraftKings
FD = FanDuel
CZ = Caesars
BR = BetRivers
BO = BetOnline
DSI = BetDSI
MB = MyBookie
Chris Dell is a lifelong sports journalist and news editor who has written for The New York Times, New York Daily News and Yahoo Sports, among other publications. He’s also the fantasy football/player props director and co-founder of The Betting Predators. For more of Chris’ sports content, which includes NFL fantasy rankings, player prop analysis, golf betting, DFS strategy and more, visit www.bettingpredators.com