By Chris Dell
Key stats and actionable data points for the Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village Golf Course in Dublin, Ohio. All rankings below are adjusted for injuries and the current field.
What: the Memorial Tournament, PGA Tour
Where: Muirfield Village Golf Course, Dublin, Ohio (Par 72)
When: June 1-4, 2023
Previous Five Winners (2022-2018): Billy Horschel (-13), Patrick Cantlay (-13), John Rahm (-9), Patrick Cantlay (-19), Bryson DeChambeau (-15)
To formulate our power ratings, as well as top buys and top fades, we will simply tally up the number of “negative quality” traits and “positive quality” traits that shows up for each golfer below. The net score of “positive trait - negative trait” will determine whether a golfer makes the list as a top buy or a top fade. Any golfer who scores between -1 to +1 will not be listed in the final power ratings. Therefore, we will only show top buys who score +2 or higher, and we will only show top fades who score -2 or lower. When it comes to the LIV, please note that there are far less stats/traits publicly available to track for these golfers. Because of this, we will add our section for “LIV Top Buys” and “LIV Top Fades” below our main power ratings when these golfers are involved. If you have any questions on how we create these weekly consensus power ratings and how we use them to formulate a majority of our pre-tournament bets, message us on Twitter @BetPredators or send an email to bettingpredators@gmail.com.
Please note: these pre-tournament consensus power ratings below are different from our “in-tournament” live betting model, which you can access as part of our premium golf picks package. Our premium picks package also includes my pre-tournament best bets, every week, and full weekend golf betting card,
Author note:
- All “negative quality” traits for players below will be bolded/italicized
- All other mentions of player names will be considered as “positive quality” traits
- Golfers with an asterisk (*) means that they have both negative quality + positive quality traits
Abbreviation key:
SG = Strokes Gained
L24 = Last 24
OWG = Official World Golf
APP = Approach
OTT = Off The Tee
ARG = Around The Green
PUTT = Putting
BS = Ball Striking
T2G = Tee To Green
CONSENSUS POWER RATINGS / TOP BUYS - THE MEMORIAL TOURNAMENT
TIER 1 - TOP BUYS
Scheffler +39
Rahm +33
Cantlay +33
Morikawa +32
TIER 2 - TOP BUYS
Xander +27
*Rory +26
Hovland +24
TIER 3 - TOP BUYS
JT +17
Henley +17
Sungjae +15
Hatton +15
*Young +15
Day +13
Fowler +12
T. Kim +12
TIER 4 - TOP BUYS
Rai +9
Todd +9
Fitzpatrick +8
Clark +8
Lowry +8
*Spieth +8
Si Woo Kim +7
Conners +7
Lingmerth +7
Reavie +7
*Hideki +7
*Kuchar +7
Bezuidenhout +6
McCarthy +5
Glover +5
Bradley +4
Theegala +4
Hoge +4
Buckley +4
Bennett +4
Burns +3
Kitayama +3
Davis +3
Woodland +3
TIER 5 - TOP BUYS
Mitchell +2
Smalley +2
Grillo +2
Stevens +2
Eckroat +2
Scott +2
Hodges +2
*Lower +2
CONSENSUS POWER RATINGS / TOP FADES - THE MEMORIAL TOURNAMENT
TIER 1 - TOP FADES
*Potgeiter -8
Kisner -7
Frittelli -6
TIER 2 - TOP FADES
Donald -4
Higa -3
L. Griffin -3
*Fox -3
Herbert -2
Hojgaard -2
Malnati -2
Mullinax -2
DataGolf Implied Win Probability (The Memorial Tournament)
Scheffler
Cantlay
Rahm
Xander
Rory
Hovland
Morikawa
Sungjae
Hatton
Day
JT
Spieth
Henley
Fowler
Young
Hideki
Si Woo Kim
Conners
Fitzpatrick
Bradley
NumberFire Win Simulation Model (The Memorial Tournament)
Scheffler
Rahm
Cantlay
Xander
Rory
Hovland
Morikawa
Sungjae
Hatton
Day
Spieth
Fowler
Henley
T. Kim
JT
DataGolf Rankings (Field-Adjusted for The Memorial Tournament)
Scheffler
Rahm
Xander
Cantlay
Rory
Hatton
Hovland
Sungjae
Day
Morikawa
JT
Clark
Fitzpatrick
Fowler
Spieth
Young
Conners
Henley
Hideki
Burns
Bradley
Theegala
McCarthy
Kuchar
T. Kim
OWG Rankings (Field Adjusted for The Memorial Tournament)
Scheffler
Rahm
Rory
Cantlay
Xander
Hovland
Fitzpatrick
Spieth
Burns
JT
Young
Hatton
Morikawa
Sungjae
Kitayama
T. Kim
Day
Bradley
Hideki
Lowry
Theegala
Conners
Henley
Clark
Hoge
Action Network’s Model Rankings (The Memorial Tournament)
Cantlay
Rahm
Scheffler
Hovland
Xander
Lowry
Hatton
Bezuidenhout
Morikawa
McCarthy
SG: APP L24 Rounds (Action Network)
Jon Rahm (+29.1)
Scottie Scheffler (+27.8)
Collin Morikawa (+27.0)
Viktor Hovland (+26.3)
Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+22.1)
SG: BS L24 Rounds (Action Network)
Scottie Scheffler (+56.5)
Patrick Cantlay (+47.1)
Viktor Hovland (45.3)
Jon Rahm (+36.1)
Collin Morikawa (+35.3)
Good Drives Gained L24 Rounds (Action Network)
Patrick Cantlay (+29.7)
Scottie Scheffler (+28.4)
Denny McCarthy (+27.1)
Tom Kim (+24.7)
Shane Lowry (+24.6)
SG: PUTT BENTGRASS-FAST L24 Rounds (Action Network)
Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+34.1)
Patrick Cantlay (+30.9)
Denny McCarthy (+21.8)
Alex Noren (+21.6)
Justin Lower (+20.4)
SG: NICKLAUS DESIGNS L24 Rounds (Action Network)
Patrick Cantlay (+2.9)
Collin Morikawa (+2.8)
Scottie Scheffler (+2.4)
Jon Rahm (+1.9)
Russell Henley (+1.7)
SG: APP AVG 2023 (PGA Tour/NumberFire)
Morikawa
Scheffler
Rahm
Hoge
Xander
Rory
Fowler
SG: OTT AVG 2023 (PGA Tour/NumberFire)
Scheffler
Cantlay
Mitchell
Buckley
Rory
–
Kisner
Donald
SG: DRIVING ACCURACY 2022-23 (PGA Tour/NumberFire)
Henley
T. Kim
Rai
Morikawa
Harman
Cantlay
Glover
Si Woo Kim
Todd
Lingmerth
Lowry
Reavie
Z. Johnson
Long
Sungjae
Scheffler
SG: ARG AVG 2023 (PGA Tour/NumberFire)
Kuchar
Hun An
Todd
JT
Hideki
SG: TOTAL AVG 2023 (PGA Tour/NumberFire)
Scheffler
Rahm
Hatton
Cantlay
Xander
Day
Rory
Fowler
–
Kisner
SG: BIRDIE OR BETTER % 2023 (PGA Tour/NumberFire)
Rahm
Cantlay
Scheffler
Young
Montgomery
Hoge
Hovland
Bhatia
Day
SG: TOTAL Elevated Stroke Play Events 2022-23 (Ron Klos)
Scheffler
Rahm
Cantlay
Xander
Hatton
Clark
Spieth
Fowler
Fox
Hovland
McCarthy
Day
Fitzpatrick
Sungjae
Morikawa
Davis
Kuchar
Rory
–
Lower
Horschel
Ramey
Lipsky
Herbert
Wallace
Hardy
Cink
Higa
Kisner
L. Griffin
Good Drive % Course History Since 2020 (Ron Klos)
Svensson
Smalley
Fitzpatrick
Lowry
NeSmith
Rai
Conners
Grillo
Stevens
Hardy
Morikawa
T. Kim
Sungjae
Scheffler
Rory
Hatton
Rahm
Xander
Young
Cantlay
Hovland
JT
Hideki
Spieth
Player Decompositions - Driving Accuracy (DataGolf)
Henley
Rai
T. Kim
Reavie
Todd
Glover
Morikawa
Lingmerth
–
Frittelli
Fox
Player Decompositions - Final Course Adjustments (DataGolf)
Scheffler
Cantlay
Rahm
Xander
Rory
Hovland
Sungjae
Hatton
Morikawa
Day
JT
Fowler
Henley
Spieth
Si Woo Kim
Young
–
Choi
Potgieter
Player Skill Ratings - Driving Accuracy L1-L2 Years (DataGolf)
Henley
Rai
T. Kim
Reavie
Todd
Glover
Morikawa
Si Woo Kim
Lingmerth
–
Frittelli
Fox
Player Skill Ratings - SG TOTAL L1-L2 Years (DataGolf)
Scheffler
Rahm
Cantlay
Xander
Rory
Hovland
Hatton
Young
Sungjae
JT
Day
Morikawa
Player Skill Ratings - SG OTT L1-L2 Years (DataGolf)
Scheffler
Cantlay
Young
Rory
Hovland
Woodland
Rahm
List
Buckley
Sungjae
Conners
Davis
Xander
Mitchell
Burns
Stevens
Morikawa
Lowry
Higgo
Hatton
Hun An
Player Skill Ratings - SG APP L1-L2 Years (DataGolf)
Scheffler
Morikawa
Xander
Rahm
Cantlay
Hovland
Rory
JT
Young
Conners
Lowry
Woodland
Spieth
Hideki
Henley
Fowler
T. Kim
Hatton
Clark
Si Woo Kim
Rai
Hoge
Kitayama
Smalley
Day
Query Tool - Driving Accuracy L6 Months (DataGolf)
Henley
Rai
Long
Glover
T. Kim
Todd
Si Woo Kim
Hadwin
Eckroat
Lingmerth
Reavie
Buckley
Morikawa
–
Frittelli
Pendrith
Rory
B. Taylor
Gotterup
Malnati
Kisner
Bramlett
Mullinax
Query Tool - Driving Accuracy L2 Years (DataGolf)
Reavie
Todd
T. Kim
Rai
Henley
Bennett
Morikawa
Lingmerth
Choi
–
Fox
Frittelli
Potgeiter
Hojgaard
Query Tool - SG TOTAL L6 Months (DataGolf)
Scheffler
Rahm
Xander
Cantlay
Bennett
Day
Hovland
Rory
Morikawa
Hatton
Fowler
Young
Sungjae
Clark
JT
–
Choi
Potgeiter
Kisner
Query Tool - SG TOTAL L2 Years (DataGolf)
Rahm
Scheffler
Cantlay
Rory
Xandfer
JT
Hovland
Sungjae
Morikawa
Fitzpatrick
–
Potgeiter
Choi
Query Tool - SG T2G L6 Months (DataGolf)
Scheffler
Cantlay
Rahm
Rory
Morikawa
Xander
Bennett
Hovland
Young
Hatton
JT
–
Potgeiter
Kisner
Query Tool - SG T2G L2 Years (DataGolf)
Scheffler
Rory
Rahm
Cantlay
Xander
JT
Morikawa
–
Potgeiter
Query Tool - SG OTT L6 Months (DataGolf)
Potgeiter
Scheffler
Cantlay
Rory
Hovland
Young
List
Woodland
Davis
Buckley
–
Kisner
Donald
Noren
Malnati
Query Tool - SG OTT L2 Years (DataGolf)
Rahm
Rory
Young
Cantlay
Scheffler
–
Choi
Donald
Query Tool - SG APP L6 Months (DataGolf)
Scheffler
Bennett
Morikawa
Xander
Rahm
Clark
–
Potgeiter
Higa
Query Tool - SG APP L2 Years (DataGolf)
Xander
Morikawa
Scheffler
Lowry
Henley
Hovland
Rahm
–
Higa
Query Tool - SG ARG L6 Months (DataGolf)
Choi
Kuchar
Todd
Hideki
JT
Kirk
Sungjae
Day
–
Potgeiter
List
L. Griffin
Query Tool - SG ARG L2 Years (DataGolf)
Kuchar
–
Potgeiter
True Strokes Gained - Muirfield Village Golf Club (DataGolf)
Rahm
Cantlay
Morikawa
Scheffler
Kuchar
Theegala
Xander
Wallace
Rory
Horschel
Spieth
Molinari
Scott
Fowler
Bezuidenhout
Course Fit Tool - Total SG Adjustments (DataGolf)
Todd
Lingmerth
Henley
Choi
Reavie
Putnam
Rai
–
Potgeiter
Frittelli
Fox
Mullinax
Hojgaard
Hun An
Course Fit Tool - Driving Accuracy Adjustments (DataGolf)
Henley
Rai
T. Kim
Reavie
Todd
Glover
Morikawa
Si Woo Kim
Lingmerth
–
Frittelli
Fox
Course Fit Tool - Approach Adjustments (DataGolf)
Scheffler
Morikawa
Xander
Rahm
Expected Wins PGA Tour (DataGolf)
Rahm
Scheffler
Xander
Cantlay
Rory
Kitayama
Hovland
Clark
TRUE SG 2023 TOTAL (DataGolf)
Rahm
Scheffler
Cantlay
Xander
Rory
Hovland
TRUE SG 2023 T2G (DataGolf)
Scheffler
Rory
Rahm
Cantlay
Morikawa
Xander
Hovland
Young
JT
TRUE SG 2023 OTT (DataGolf)
Scheffler
Cantlay
Rory
TRUE SG 2023 APP (DataGolf)
Morikawa
Xander
Scheffler
Rahm
TREND INDEX L1-L4 Months (DataGolf)
Scheffler
Xander
Rahm
Cantlay
Henley
Hovland
Conners
Fitzpatrick
Rory
Grillo
Fowler
Clark
Scott
Kuchar
Sungjae
Theegala
Young
Day
Hideki
Best SG: AVG First Round Scoring (Betsperts)
Rory
Rahm
Cantlay
JT
Scheffler
Xander
Bezuidenhout
Bradley
Kuchar
Hovland
Sungjae
Young
Hatton
Horschel
Lower
Fowler
Henley
Hodges
Best SG: +/- First Round Scoring (Betsperts)
Hodges
Lower
Bezuidenhout
Worst SG: AVG First Round Scoring (Betsperts)
Higgo
Donald
Best SG: AVG Strong Field Events (Betsperts)
Rahm
Rory
JT
Xander
Scheffler
Cantlay
Morikawa
Fitzpatrick
Best SG: +/- First Round Scoring (Betsperts)
Schenk
Worst SG: +/- First Round Scoring (Betsperts)
NeSmith
Long
Kuchar
Stallings
Ryder
Young
Hubbard
Rodgers
Herbert
INJURY REPORT (Establish The Run/Underdog Network)
Spieth (wrist)
L. Griffin (back)
Hideki (neck)
Snedeker (undisclosed)
Chris Dell's Bonus Best Bets - the Memorial Tournament:
Finish Position:
Morikawa T20 @ BO +120
Fox MISS CUT @ Bet365 +150
72-Hole Tournament Matchups
K.H. Lee > Fox @ BO -153
Hun An > Fox @ FD -142
Power > Herbert @ BO -120
D. Riley > Hojgaard @ BO -117
18-Hole Round One Matchups
Cole > Fox @ UB +108
Bezuidenhout > Fox @ Bet365 -105
Svensson > Herbert @ BO -115
Straka > Herbert @ BV -105
Hughes > Hojgaard @ BV -115
Daffue > Hojgaard/Potgeiter @ Bet365 +190
Resources used for this week's article:
Action Network’s Weekly PGA Tour Model Rankings (Matt Vincenzi)
PGA Tour Weekly Course Preview (Ron Klos)
Injury News & Player Notes (Nick DeMott)
NumberFire’s Course Key Stats (Brandon Gdula)
Chris Dell is a lifelong sports journalist and editor who been published in The New York Times, New York Daily News, ESPN, and Yahoo, among other publications. He’s also the co-founder and director of fantasy football/player props content for The Betting Predators. For more of Chris’ sports content, which includes NFL fantasy rankings, player prop analysis, golf betting, and more, follow Chris on Twitter @MaddJournalist