By Chris Dell
To view the full spreadsheet of updated round to round data for our Strokes Gained Ratings, click here
Primer/Intro: Last fall, I outlined how we can look for strong edges after Round 1 of a given PGA tournament using strokes gained statistics, combined with a little math. Using our "Strokes Gained Ratings" (SGR) formula, we will determine our buys and fades for head-to-head matchup bets and DFS strategy from round to round. Depending on certain courses we might look at some metrics more than others as well, but the primary focus will be on strokes gained putting, strokes gained approach and strokes gained off the tee. We will also refer below to "strokes gained ball striking," which is a combination of approach and off the tee numbers. Now let's dive into how exactly we'll use these numbers below.
In order to determine our buys and fades, we will simply subtract a golfer's strokes gained putting numbers from his strokes gained approach, off the tee and/or ball striking numbers. The premise here is that putting is often unpredictable and will regress more from round to round, whereas approach and tee to green (which combined equals "ball striking") are the "sticky" stats which indicate the golfers who are/aren't playing well in the moment. Our "buy" golfers will be those with a strokes gained rating of "+3" or higher, while our "fade" golfers will be those with a strokes gained rating of "-3" or lower. If two buys are facing each other in a head to head matchup bet, then we will pass, however we especially want to look for head to head opportunities where a "buy" is facing off directly with a "fade," and so on and so forth.
Strokes Gained is broken down into four categories, and depending on a certain course/tournament, we will look to target certain stats specifically to determine out H2H, round to round matchup prop bets.
Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
Strokes Gained: Putting
Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (which is Off-the-Tee + Approach)
Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (which is Ball-Striking + Around-the-Green)
OVERALL TOP BUYS (Using Round 3 Data):
***Matthew NeSmith +4.83
***Alex Noren +4.62
**Nick Taylor +4.97
**Mito Pereira +4.83
**Brian Stuard +3.68
**Billy Horschel +3.40
**Shane Lowry +2.23
OVERALL TOP FADES (Using Round 3 Data):
****Brian Gay -9.25
***Ryan Palmer -4.69
***Brett Drewitt -4.48
***Bronson Burgoon -3.84
***Austin Cook -3.10
***Peter Uihlien -2.77
***Robert Streb +0.13
**Louis Oosthuizen -4.88
**Martin Trainer -4.43
**Stephan Jaeger -3.02
Round 4 Matchup Best Bets/Finishing Props (0.5 Units):
NeSmith -0.5 > Oosthuizen @ CZ +150 (+9.71)
Horschel Best Finishing Position > Oosthuizen @ FD -235 (+8.28)
Pereira > Fowler @ BO -145 (+8.14)
Vegas +0.5 > Oosthuizen @ BO -135 (+7.58)
Noren > Frittelli @ DK -155 (+7.09)
Nick Taylor -0.5 > Mullinax -110 (+7.00)
Willett -0.5 > Drewitt @ Bet365 -120 (+6.72)
NeSmith > Rai @ BO -115 (+6.45)
Creel -0.5 > Gay @ CZ +110 (+6.34)
Nick Taylor +0.5 > McCarthy @ BO -130 (+4.62)
Stuard Top 20 Finish @ FD -110
Best Finish Without Berger:
(0.25 Units) Lowry +225 @ CZ
(0.15 Units) Noren 33:1 @ CZ
(0.05 Units) Horschel 200:1 @ CZ
(0.05 Units) Stuard 500:1 @ CZ
Strokes Gained Ratings Key/Abbreviations
*Asterisk(s) indicates the number of threshold metrics a golfer qualifies as a "buy" or "fade" in out of:
Strokes Gained Putting
Strokes Gained Ball Striking
Strokes Gained Tee To Green
Strokes Gained Gained Net Rating - Ball Striking
Strokes Gained Net Rating - Tee To Green
SGR = Strokes Gained Net Rating
BS = Ball Striking
OTT = Off The Tee
APP = Approach
PUTT = Putting
ARG = Around The Green
T2G = Tee To Green
FRL = First Round Leader
SRL = Second Round Leader
TRL = Third Round Leader
DK = DraftKings
FD = FanDuel
CZ = Caesars
BO = BetOnline
DSI = BetDSI
MB = MyBookie