Our NFL Premium Package is Now Available for the 2022 season! Get full access to our best bets, given out early in the week, in real time: sides, totals, player props, and more, all in one place, through the end of the Super Bowl. Get $15 OFF with code "NFL15" - offer valid through October 31st
With NFL Week 7 officially in the books, we adjust our power ratings and look forward to a new slate of games for NFL Week 8. As with every week, to determine a power-rated line, take the difference between the teams' power rating and factor in home field advantage. Remember, power ratings are the start of the handicap and should be a foundation to build upon. These values represent what a team is on any given week. It will certainly fluctuate as the year progresses.
Biggest Upgrade: Seattle Seahawks
Seattle sees the biggest upgrade in my power ratings this week, but it isn’t just because of their impressive win or getting players back from injury, in fact, DK Metcalf was injured. This upgrade is my humble apology to the Seahawks and their 12th man. I’m sorry. I was wrong. Seattle was 0.25 points away from being the worst team in the NFL to start the year and planned to start Geno Smith. Being from the east coast and a Giants fan, I had seen enough of Geno Smith to know he wasn’t the answer. This was a horrible miscalculation. Geno ranks 4th in QBR and PFF. Football Outsiders’ DVOA has the Seahawks offense 3rd in the league. I still don’t trust this team on a week in and week out basis, but they certainly are not the worst team in the NFL. I still like the Giants catching a field goal this week, but both of these teams have made dramatic increases in my power ratings the last few weeks. A surprising fact: this is the only Week 8 game between teams with winning records. I think the real value may be in backing which ever team loses in Week 9.
Biggest Downgrade: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
There has been speculation for the past decade that Tom Brady would hit the proverbial wall. Each year would come and go, and all the pundits that doubted him were left with egg on their face. Brady seemed to be the only person on Earth who could defeat father time. It appears 2022, at age 45, Brady finally found that wall. Whether it is his age, his well documented family issues, the sieve-like offensive line, or the often injury-plagued receivers who at times appear to be allergic to catching the ball, one thing is for sure, Tom Brady and the Buccaneers are slowly dissolving into the ether. The man with all the rings who year in and year out was a dominant force in the NFL is finally showing attrition. The Buccaneers are still an average team in my power ratings. Most of the advanced quarterback metrics also categorize Brady as such as well, but his reign of supremacy appears to be over. The Bucs are not an automatic fade by any stretch of the imagination. To quote my father quoting Toby Keith, “I ain’t as good as I once was, but I’m as good once as I ever was.” Be careful the market hasn’t overreacted to the Bucs disappointing play even if they are our biggest downgrade this week. Brady is down. He’s not dead.
Something to Note:
And then there were 3… Buffalo, Kansas City, and Philadelphia have separated themselves from the rest of the NFL like Australia did to Pangea. In fact, none of these teams would be catching points home or away against the other 29 teams in the league. This fact isn’t unique to my power ratings. Caesars Sportsbook posted odds this week on the Big 3 versus the field. Opening at -110 each way, it currently sits at Bills/Eagles/Chiefs -125. It’s difficult to discern whether this was sharp or square action that moved the number. Personally, I laid off. There is still a lot of football left to be played that could change our opinions, not to mention injuries. If I had to play it, the smallest of leans to the Big 3.
Week 8 Power Ratings
Week 8 Power Ratings vs. Lines
By Steve Rieder
@AvoidTheVig
Want to have direct access to our network of Betting Predators handicappers? Sign up for our FREE Discord channel to get 24/7 direct access to our handicapping team, as well as our community of sharp bettors
Want an easy to find all of our Betting Predators content in one place? Sign up for our free newsletter, Substack and receive a weekly roundup on everything we've published (FREE + PREMIUM), and all that we're up to throughout the week. We promise we'll never give your email address out for advertising purposes.