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Steve Rieder has accumulated a 198-154-1 record, +29.01 units over the course of the 2021 & 2022 NFL seasons combined
By Steve Rieder
With NFL Week 4 officially in the books, we adjust our power ratings and look forward to a new slate of games for NFL Week 5. As with every week, to determine a power-rated line, take the difference between the teams' power rating and factor in home field advantage. Remember, power ratings are the start of the handicap and should be a foundation to build upon. These values represent what a team is on any given week. It will certainly fluctuate as the year progresses.
Week 5 Power Ratings
Biggest Upgrade: Kansas City Chiefs and Dallas Cowboys
Even with all the Buccaneers players returning and the line moving in TB’s direction, the Chiefs absolutely destroyed the Bucs on Sunday Night. Watching what Mahomes and Reid can do on a day in and out basis is truly tremendous. There were questions about how the Chiefs offense would respond without Tyreek Hill, but those have been answered. With Spagnolo doing enough on the defensive side of things, the Chiefs sit firmly at number two in my power ratings.
The other team I raised a full point was the Dallas Cowboys. This increase has more to do with my previous power rating than it does to their game on Sunday. Let’s be honest, Washington is a terrible, terrible football team. Dallas is not, which is why they took care of business this weekend. There have been so much conversation about Cooper Rush and if he was just as good as Dak, a perspective I completely disagree with. Although he’s better than I expected, I still think there is a massive drop off between the two. Even with a point upgrade, I see value fading the Boys against the Rams.
Biggest Downgrade:
I always respect Mike Tomlin and his ability to put the Steelers in a position to win on a yearly basis. However, this change at quarterback to Kenny Pickett is a clear indication that the Steelers are more focused on the future than their present. After losing to the lowly Jets, the Steelers have an impossible matchup as a 2 touchdown underdog in Buffalo. This is not how a rookie quarterback should get his first start. Just like the market predicts, I fully expect Pickett to get a rude awakening to the NFL this upcoming weekend.
Something to Note:
There are few teams that have significant injuries, specifically at the quarterback position. Russell Wilson, Mac Jones, Daniel Jones, Tyrod Taylor, Jameis Winston, Tua, and Dak are all banged up. Identifying the questionable quarterbacks from the ones that are unlikely or already declared out can go a long way towards profitability. Look to see what the market has or hasn’t accounted for before news breaks so you can be prepared to play or pass when it does.
Week 5 Power Ratings vs. Lines
