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Editor's Note: Steve Rieder has accumulated a 205-166-1 record, +22.06 units over the course of the 2021 & 2022 NFL seasons. Get access to his full record, pick by pick, on our NFL bets tracker spreadsheet
STEVE RIEDER'S NFL FREE PLAY OF THE WEEK
The NFL sides market is an extremely efficient market. You need to find an edge wherever you can when betting NFL sides. One way of doing this is to get ahead of the market by attacking the lines the moment they are released on Sunday night. Here is my NFL Week 8 free play:
New York Giants +3 at Seattle Seahawks
Considering the preseason expectations, the fact that neither of these teams aren’t tanking, is surprising. The fact that this is the only game featuring both teams with a winning record is absurd. Even with the fanfare and their record, I only have the Giants tied for 18th and Seattle tied for 23rd in my power ratings. This is a better story than they are teams. Still I think we have value in the game. The Giants had to fly to Jacksonville, back to NY, and then to SEA. Not exactly ideal, but I generally feel travel is overrated. They also lost their right tackle Evan Neal to injury who has a PFF grade under 50, so I’m not how much worse the backup could be. I’m much more concerned about the availability of DK Metcalf for Seattle. I’ve spoken a lot about Geno’s revelation, and the Giants are susceptible on the back end, but only worrying about one great receiver, is a lot easier for Wink to scheme for. Next week, the Giants are on a bye week, so all attention will be on Seattle. While the Seahawks have a date with division rival Arizona on deck. Considering the division title implications, Seattle could be a little distracted. I really like the Giants in the second half, so I will be looking at them in game. But with the leading indicator books slowly starting to leak in the Giants direction, I’m going to take the G-men catching a fg. All 7 of their games have been one score contests and they won 6 of them. Certainly there is some luck in there, but this team believes in themselves, their coach and their quarterback. They have been in tough games before and found ways to win. I expect them to do the same here.
By Steve Rieder
@AvoidTheVig
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