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WEEK 14 BETTING REVIEW
After starting off a blistering 5-0, I thought were in line for a sweep. However, Tua and company let us down mightily. Losing nearly 5 units on one game was painful and probably is a good reminder not to overexpose yourself on a team if the plays are correlated. Regardless, it was a good week. Let’s get to it.
WEEK 14 BEST BETS: 5-2 (+4.8u)
SEASON LONG: 60-61 (-0.55u)
MIN/DET O51 (Win)
DET +8.5/KC -2.5 (WIN)
This total went as high as 54 earlier in the week before getting pounded back down to 52 at kickoff. I thought we were drawing dead at the end of the half when the Vikings fumbled on their 3 and and the Lions missed a field goal. Thankfully, the offensive arms race exploded in the 4th to help us clear our lookahead over. Make no mistake, with nearly 900 yards of total offense, this one should have gone over.
CIN -4 (WIN)
CIN to Score 1st (WIN)
It seemed like we were rewarded for grabbing the Bengals -4 on the opener. However, the line moved as high as CIN -6 before ticking down to 5.5 and then smashed by a syndicate Sunday morning down to as low as -3.5. So much of my handicap was simply a fade of Watson after a horrific performance last week. Although he played better in this one, ultimately the angle came through as the Browns could only post 10 points for the game. Regarding our 1st team to score play, I expected the Bengals to get the ball first. They didn’t. I expected a quick score in the 1st. It was scoreless. Thankfully, the Bengals drive was extended in the 2nd quarter after a roughing the punter penalty, which lead to Ja’Marr Chase touchdown and a cashed ticket.
SF 1st Half -1 (WIN)
I thought there was an overreaction to the Jimmy Garoppolo news and expected Shannahan to put Purdy in a position to be productive. However, I was nervous about Brady’s propensity to bring the Bucs back in the 4th, which is why I pivoted to a first half play. There was no reason to be concerned. There were a lot of surprising games this weekend. I’m not sure anyone expected a 35-7 domination in this one.
MIA ML (LOSS)
MIA 1st Half Team Total O13.5 (LOSS)
For the 2nd game in a row, the Dolphins’ offense looked pedestrian. I chalked the Week 13 loss to the 49ers stout defense, but the Chargers D is below average. Seeing Tua struggle like he did is concerning. They barely covered their 1st half team total for the game and, frankly, they were never really in it. It was the wrong side and the wrong derivative. It was a disappointing ending to a great week.
By Steve Rieder
@AvoidTheVig
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