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WEEK 13 BETTING REVIEW
Week 13 came and went and I’m very thankful it is gone. Not only were our premium plays disappointing, I got rocked on my personal portfolio in what was the worst week of the year for me. Luckily, it wasn’t a catastrophe for us and we are sitting on some really good numbers for Week 14. But first, let’s take a look at where it all went wrong.
WEEK 13 BEST BETS: 2-4 (-5.4u)
SEASON LONG: 55-59 (-5.35u)
MIN -3 (WIN)
We start off with a game that we won, but probably should have lost. The Jets had two opportunities to punch it in late to win the game and couldn’t get it done. The Vikings were -1.6 nYPP, +2 in turnovers, 3-3 in red zone opportunities, and still almost lost. They are paper champions and not a team I trust, which is why we gave out the Lions in a teaser at the Week 14 opener.
JAX +7.5 / CLE -0.5 (LOSS)
As predicted, the Cleveland’s offense was an abject failure, but they still managed to cover our teaser leg. Houston was as bad as advertised, allowing the Browns to score 3 defensive and special teams touchdowns. Unfortunately, the Jags were absolutely dismantled. They are simply a team I just don’t have a good pulse on and despite the money they are receiving this week, will not be getting mine until I have a better read on them.
TEN +6 (LOSS)
My “actionable angle” was that the Titans would be able to slow down the Eagles run game. They did better than I expected, limiting the Eagles to 2.8 yards per carry. Unfortunately, that had little to no effect on the game as the Eagles offense put up nearly 400 yards through the air alone on their way to a 35-10 victory. The Titans can beat the bad teams, but struggle against the league's best. Sharp money has faded them this week already.
GB -3 (WIN)
The Bears were projected to win the game throughout the entirety of the 2nd and 3rd quarter. And then the fourth quarter hit and Aaron Rodgers took over as Green Bay scored 17 unanswered points to close it out and seal their/our victory. So much was made about both quarterback injuries going into the contest. Both looked absolutely fine throughout. The difference was Aaron Rodgers owns the Bears.
CIN/KC O52.5 (LOSS)
This one hurt. It was the squarest play on the board, I backed it, and it didn’t get their. It is one thing to lose. It’s another to lose with Joe Public. With that said, we were on the correct side. It was 27-24 with 9 minutes left in the fourth in a game that featured two power house offensive teams. Patrick Mahomes was trailing and surely lead his team to score. They settled for a field goal that fell short and the Bengals ended the game on a 10 play drive to run out the clock. Daggers.
BAL -2 / NYG +8.5 (LOSS)
The Giants held up their end of the bargain. After being down 10-0 to start, there was a level of concern, but they righted the ship that ended in a tie and cover. What I didn’t anticipate was Lamar Jackson going down and the Ravens being held to 10 points. Worse yet, when he went out, I played back on the Broncos moneyline. Two losers for the price of one. Sometimes it just isn’t your week and this was certainly not mine.
By Steve Rieder
@AvoidTheVig
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