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With the NFL Super Wild Card Round officially in the books, we adjust our power ratings and look forward to a new slate of games for the Divisional Round. As with every week, to determine a power-rated line, take the difference between the teams' power rating and factor in home field advantage. Remember, power ratings are the start of the handicap and should be a foundation to build upon. These values represent what a team is on any given week. It will certainly fluctuate as the year progresses.
BIGGEST UPGRADE: NYG
The Giants make my biggest upgrade this week and most of it comes because of Daniel Jones. Jones didn’t have his option picked up this year by the Giants. Many expected him to be jettisoned with the new coaching staff and front office in place. He has exceeded any reasonable expectations. Accumulating 300 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 70 rushing yards is something no other player in the NFL has ever done in the playoffs. I fully expected the Giants coaching staff to bring it against the Vikings. I didn’t expect Daniel Jones to have as much success as he has in the biggest game of his professional career. I don’t think they get past the Eagles this week, but saying this team is trending upwards is an understatement.
BIGGEST DOWNGRADE: CIN
This is not much of a downgrade relative to those we have seen this year, but the Bengals won a game where they probably shouldn’t have. Facing a divisional rival with a backup quarterback at home should have been an easy win, after all, they were favored by more than a touchdown. They were out yarded by over a yard per play and if it wasn’t for a Huntley goal line fumble returned for a touchdown, we would be talking about how the Ravens needed to be upgraded. I do think the Bengals season isn’t in peril based off what they showed last week, but I did knock them for that performance.
SOMETHING OF NOTE: DON’T BE A PRISONER OF THE MOMENT
The Bills and Bengals almost had catastrophic collapses. The Jaguars pulled off a historical, unprecedented comeback. The Cowboys put Brady out to pasture, while the Giants regained their Coughlin-era confidence. The 49ers, which some thought to be the NFC’s best, looked beatable in the first half before turning the tide in the 2nd half. All of this may be true, but once the power ratings are adjusted, it doesn't have a ton to do with the upcoming week. In fact, the opposite could be true if the market overreacts to a performance. Each week, whether it's the playoffs or the regular season, is its own entity. There are teams that over or under perform expectations. Most of the time this is already accounted for in the line. If anything, I’d rather back the team that performed poorly (BUF) and fade the team that looked impressive (DAL) especially in the playoffs.
Divisional Round Power Ratings
Divisional Round Power Ratings vs. Lines
By Steve Rieder
@AvoidTheVig
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