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By Andrew Duhancioglu
@WaryActuary
Editor's Note: The ticket count/money count numbers listed below were written here as of Saturday, October 16th at 6:48 p.m. ET and all numbers are taken from the pregame.com live odds/betting information dashboard
Last Update: Saturday, October 16th at 6:48 p.m. ET
In this article we’ll explore games that have more than 70% of the tickets (“bet %”) on one side of the betting line and provide a useful metric called the “shark delta.” The shark delta will show the difference between the ticket count (bet %) and the actual money count (“handle”). We’ll also dive into games where the shark delta is greater than 10% and help identify where the “sharp/shark” money is going for the weekend. But first, let's recap how games with more than 70% of the tickets played out last week.
As you’ll note in the chart above, the cumulative winning percentage for games with a ticket count greater than 70%, through four weeks, is 54.3%. The masses are coming off a fantastic Week 2 performance (85.7% ATS), however their winning percentage has been 50% or less in all other weeks. Another interesting statistic to note here is that road underdogs are covering the spread 64.3% of the time and this jumps up to 88.9% when considering games with a shark delta of at least 10% in either direction.
Notable Shark Deltas
ARI @ CLE (Home Bet % = 44%)
- Opening line = CLE -2.5
- Current line = CLE -3.5
- Home handle = 68% of money on CLE
- Shark delta = +24%
- Arizona will be forced to play this game without their primary signal caller and head coach Kliff Kingsbury. Kyler Murray injured his shoulder last week and may not be 100% during this matchup. Arizona's defense sturggles stopping the run. Although starting running back Nick Chubb will be out with the injury, the Browns have another high caliber running back in Kareem Hunt. Both these teams are powerhouses in the NFL; however, Arizona is going to need to overcome alot of adversity to pull off this upset.
LV @ DEN (Home Bet % = 51%)
- Opening line = DEN -3.5
- Current line = DEN -4.0
- Home handle = 69% of money on DEN
- Shark delta = +18%
- The Raiders are playing their first game without former head coach Jon Gruden. Vegas is coming off a home loss against a subpar Chicago team. It’s possible that the Raiders come out flat again today against Denver. The Broncos have a great defense so it’ll be up to Teddy Bridgewater & Co. to step up and have a good game against their division rivals.
DAL @ NE (Home Bet % = 15%)
- Opening line = NE +1
- Current line = NE +3.0
- Home handle = 34% of money on NE
- Shark delta = +19%
- Dallas has won their past three games in a convincing fashion. Cowboysare averaging more than 40 points per game with an average margin of victory ofmore than 17 points per game. Excluding the Saints game, New England other losses were only two points or less. The Patriots haven’t allowed more than 28 points in a game this season.
SEA @ PIT (Home Bet % = 66%)
- Opening line = PIT -3.5
- Current line = PIT -5.0
- Home handle = 76% of money on PIT
- Shark delta = +10%
- The Seahawks will be playing this game without starting QB RussellWilson. Although Big Ben’s play has been less than stellar as of late, the Steelers defense should be able to contain Seattle’s offense led by backup QB Geno Smith.
Heavy Consensus Bets
HOU @ IND (Home Bet % = 71%)
- Opening line = IND -9.5
- Current line = IND -10.0
- Home handle = 77% of money on IND
- Shark Delta = -6%
GB @ CHI (Home Bet % = 22%)
- Opening line = CHI +4.5
- Current line = CHI +6.0
- Home handle = 20% of money on CHI
- Shark Delta = -2%
KC @ WFT (Home Bet % = 6%)
- Opening line = WFT +6.5
- Current line = WFT +7.0
- Home handle = 12% of money on WFT
- Shark Delta = +6%
LAC @ BAL (Home Bet % = 22%)
- Opening line = BAL -3.0
- Current line = BAL -2.5
- Home handle = 25% of money on BAL
- Shark Delta = +3%
LAR @ NYG (Home Bet % = 10%)
- Opening line = NYG +9.5
- Current line = NYG +8.0
- Home handle = 15% of money on NYG
- Shark Delta = +5%
BUF @ TEN (Home Bet % = 15%)
- Opening line = TEN +5.5
- Current line = TEN +5.5
- Home handle = 22% of money on TEN
- Shark Delta = +7%