By Andrew Duhan

@WaryActuary

Editor's Note: The ticket count/money count numbers listed below were written here as of Saturday, October 23rd, at 2:00 a.m. EST and all numbers are taken from the pregame.com live odds/betting information dashboard

In this article we’ll explore games that have more than 70% of the tickets (“bet %”) on one side of the betting line and provide a useful metric called the “shark delta.” The shark delta will show the difference between the ticket count (bet %) and the actual money count (“handle”). We’ll also dive into games where the shark delta is greater than 10% and help identify where the “sharp/shark” money is going for a given weekend. But first, let's recap how the games with more than 70% of the tickets played out last week.

As you’ll note in the chart above, the cumulative winning percentage for games with a ticket count greater than 70%, through four weeks, is 59.0%. The masses are coming off another fantastic performance as they were perfect last week. Another interesting statistic to note here is that road underdogs are covering the spread 64.3% of the time and this jumps up to 88.9% when considering games with a shark delta of at least 10% in either direction. We have a total of five games in Week 7 with shark deltas of +/- 10% or more in either direction, which we'll highlight below. This will be a helpful practice in distinguishing games where we're seeing larger amounts of money being bet, as opposed to the actual sheer number of tickets bet:

Notable Shark Deltas

CIN @ BAL (Home Bet % = 64%)

• Opening line = BAL -6.5
• Current line = BAL -6.5
• Home handle = 41% of money on BAL
• Shark Delta = -23%
• Baltimore has scored over 30 points in each of their home games while Cincinnati's defense has not allowed more than 25 points all season. This matchup will be a great test for both teams. Only 41% of the money is on the Ravens despite their high ticket count of 64%.

CAR @ NYG (Home Bet % = 20%)

• Opening line =  NYG +3.0
• Current line = NYG +3.0
• Home handle = 34% of money on NYG
• Shark Delta = +14%
• Both teams are coming off a loss last week. Giants are missing several key offensive players such as starting RB Saquon Barkley, WR Kenny Golladay, and WR Kadarius Toney. After a hot start, Panthers QB Sam Darnold had subpar performances over the past three games. He'll may be able to get back on the right track against the below average NYG defense. 

KC @ TEN (Home Bet % = 61%)

• Opening line =  TEN +5.5
• Current line = TEN +4.5
• Home handle = 47% of money on TEN
• Shark Delta = +14%
• Titans had a major victory last week over Buffalo. They'll need to have another spectacular performance to defeat the Kansas City Chiefs. This game has the highest over/under total thus far this season. Titans RB Derrick Henry has two straight games with three rushing touchdowns.

ATL @ MIA (Home Bet % = 57%)

• Opening line = MIA -2.5
• Current line = MIA +2.5
• Home handle = 78% of money on MIA
• Shark Delta = +21%
• The Dolphins have an unfortunate twist in their schedule; not only do they have to play right after their London game, but they also face a team coming off a BYE. After three subpar performances to open the season, Ryan seemed to find his groove over the last two weeks. However, the teams he faced (WAS and NYJ) have bottom 5 passing defenses in the NFL.

 IND @ SF (Home Bet % = 31%)

• Opening line = SF -4.0
• Current line = SF -4.0
• Home handle = 50% of money on SF
• Shark Delta = +19%
• The 49ers are coming off a BYE and Indianapolis had a decisive victory over Houston last week. Colts All-Pro guard Quenton Nelson returned to practice this week, providing a much needed boost to an offensive line that has struggled to protect QB Carson Wentz early this season.

Heavy Consensus Bets

NYJ @ NE (Home Bet % = 92%)

• Opening line = NE -6.5
• Current line = NE -7.0
• Home handle = 92% of money on NE
• Shark delta = +0%

 DET @ LAR (Home Bet % = 85%)

• Opening line = LAR -15.5
• Current line = LAR -16.5
• Home handle = 88% of money on LAR
• Shark delta = +3%

 CHI @ TB (Home Bet % = 80%)

• Opening line = TB -13.0
• Current line = TB -11.5
• Home handle = 75% of money on TB
• Shark delta = -5%

 HOU @ ARI (Home Bet % = 80%)

• Opening line = ARI -17.0
• Current line = ARI  -18.0
• Home handle = 89% of money on ARI
• Shark delta = +9%

WAS @ GB (Home Bet % = 86%)

• Opening line = GB -10.0
• Current line = GB  -9.0
• Home handle = 82% of money on GB
• Shark delta = -4%