By Chris Dell
SPECIAL NOTE: With such a vast array of golfers competing in this weekend's Safeway Open, there are A TON of numbers to crunch. And with a lot of these golfers being "lesser known" household names than we saw at the TOUR Championship last week, this might mean certain books have limited head-to-head matchups available for each round. Because of these two unique factors, I've created two separate tiered lists of buys and fades. I will try to list as many recommended matchups based on these lists as possible. Using the Tier I rankings I was able to target five matchups, plus a few outright futures bets that were at a solid price tag. Using the Tier II rankings I was able to tack on an additional four matchup wagers that showed a significant statistical edge. Our strokes gained net ratings thresholds for "buys" this weekend is +5 or higher, and our strokes gained net rating threshold for "fades" is -5 or lower. The futures bets below are also based on guys who are scoring near the top of the buy list but still remain 50:1 or higher to win outright. This is an area we will look to attack after each round with such a large field & deflated odds. This helped me to nail Jim Herman at 40:1 entering the 4th round of the Wyndham Championship last month and something we can mirror this weekend because of the propensity for this course's super low scores.
UPDATE: I will be adding a cumulative "buy/fade" net ratings list below. This is meant to showcase our strongest buys and fades from each of our three stat categories for the Safeway Open - strokes gained off the tee, strokes gained approach and strokes gained tee to green. I am aware that most books have different matchup options, so instead of just copying my picks, which I'm using from the options at betonline.ag, you might be able to shop around and fit direct matchups between buys and fades as much as possible. The more head-to-head direct matchups between buys and fades, and not just one or the other, is your best way to go. Without further adieu, let's get to our strokes gained net ratings below. What you will see below is the ranked list of strongest buys, followed by the ranked list of strongest fades. At the bottom will be recommended head-to-head matchup plays that I made wagers on through betonline.ag. Here's a quick primer with links to previous articles on www.bettingpredators.com explaining our formula, as well as a public (free) Google spreadsheet where you can track our picks each tournament, from Round 2 on. We were 21-8-5 at the TOUR Championship last week and are 80-34-12.5 for +46 units (!) over the last four tournaments, which includes just one losing round out of 16 rounds total:
- How To Bet Golf Using Strokes Gained > http://bit.ly/strokesgainedbetting101
- Strokes Gained Best Bets Tracker (Google Sheets) -> https://bit.ly/strokesgainedbets
- DataGolf.com's Live Strokes Gained Statistics -> https://datagolf.com/live-strokes-gained
Strokes Gained Tier I Top BUYS For Round 2
- Xinjun Zhang +18.88
- Sergio Garcia +15.22
- Graham Delaet +14.70
- Austin Cook +12.64
- Ryan Blaum +11.73
- Matthew Nesmith +11.67
- Lucas Glover +10.21
- Charl Schwartzel +10.04
Strokes Gained Tier II Top BUYS For Round 2
- Doug Ghim +8.97
- Tyler McCumber +8.57
- Wes Roach +8.33
- David Hearn +8.08
- Talor Gooch +7.94
- Roberto Castro +7.85
- Brandon Hagy +7.74
- Jamie Lovemark +7.71
- Henrik Norlander +7.21
- William McGirt +6.25
Strokes Gained Tier I Top FADES For Round 2
- Parker McLachlin -26.15
- Peter Malnati -14.49
- Beau Hossler -11.06
- Brandt Snedeker -10.80
- Kyoung-Hoon Lee -10.48
- Brice Garnett -10.45
- Sepp Straka -10.43
- Matt Every -10.40
Strokes Gained Tier II Top FADES For Round 2
- Sam Ryder -9.53
- Hank Lebioda -9.16
- Chesson Hadley -8.84
- Anirban Lahiri -8.77
- Rafa Cabrera Bello -8.64
- Zac Blair -8.27
- Kevin Tway -8.26
- Tim Wilkinson -7.78
- Scott Brown -7.50
- Cameron Tringale -7.45
- Charley Hoffman -7.17
- Luke Donald -6.87
- Chad Campbell -6.80
- Robert Streb -6.79
- Brian Gay -6.26
- Johnson Wagner -5.84
Round 2 Head-to-Head Matchup Best Bets (1 Unit Each)
- Sergio Garcia > Emiliano Grillo
- Matthew Nesmith > Fabian Gomez
- Matthew Nesmith > Branden Grace
- Talor Gooch > Bud Cauley
- Henrick Norlander > Peter Uihlein
- Seamus Power > Chesson Hadley
- Patrick Rodgers > Beau Hossler
- Jim Furyk > Brandt Snedeker
- Erik Van Rooyen > Charley Hoffman
Bonus Futures Bets (1/4 Unit Max):
- Xinjun Zhang To Win Outright (80:1)
- Austin Cook To Win Outright (80:1)
- Lucas Glover To Win Outright (80:1)
- Charl Schwartzel To Win Outright (66:1)
- Talor Gooch To Win Outright (66:1)
- Doug Ghim To Win Outright (66:1)