Lead golf betting analyst Chris Dell breaks down his STROKES GAINED RATINGS ("SGR") and top-rated matchup bets for Round 4 of the RBC Heritage using strokes gained data from his in-tournament, live betting putting regression model. You can also access Chris' full daily betting card every week in our premium golf picks package.
By Chris Dell
@MaddJournalist
Primer/Intro: Using strokes gained statistics allows us to find strong edges after Round 1 of a given PGA tournament when we combine them with a little math. Using our "Strokes Gained Ratings" model and weighting the volatility of putting regression, we are able to determine top buys and top fades for head-to-head matchup bets, DFS strategy and live betting opportunities from round to round as well. Depending on certain courses, we might look at some metrics more than others, but most weekends the primary focus will be on strokes gained off the tee, strokes gained approach and strokes gained tee to green.
The premise here is that strokes gained putting is wildly unpredictable and will vary from round to round, whereas strokes gained approach — as well as off the tee, ball-striking, and tee-to-green — are much "stickier" statistics which better indicate the golfers who are or aren't playing well in a given moment.
Our top "buy" golfers will be those with a strokes gained score of +1.0 or higher (rounded up from 0.95), while our top "fade" golfers will be those with a strokes gained rating of -1.0 or lower (rounded from -0.95). The goal for betting head-to-head matchups is to find two golfers whose SG MATCHUP SCORES combine to equal +1.0 or higher. For example, if Golfer A's SGR is +0.65 and Golfer B's SGR is -0.50, then our SG MATCHUP SCORE equals +1.10. I typically only bet these head-to-head matchups by using our "top fades" list and working down to all who have a -0.45 or SG SCORE or worse, and so on and so forth.
Strokes Gained is broken down into four categories, and depending on the type of course and field strength, we will look to target certain stats to determine our head-to-head live matchup bets during each round (starting after round one):
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
- Strokes Gained: Putting
- Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
Collin Morikawa is once again nipping at the heels of club leader Scottie Scheffler, just like he did last week at The Masters tournament
CHRIS DELL'S ROUND 4 GOLF BETS
I'm betting 7 new head-to-head matchups for Round 4 at RBC Heritage, as well as 1 new top finish/placements bet. To get my full daily betting card for every weekend of the PGA Tour, simply visit our Betting Predators premium picks page. Our golf betting package also includes recommended bet sizes for each wager, as well as finish bets and outright winner bets after each round of a given tournament:
- (+2.49) Cantlay > Xander @ FD +100
- (+2.31) Fleetwood > Young @ BO -145
RD4 Top Buys
(Rounds 1-3 Data)
Cantlay +0.95
RD4 Top Buys
(Round 3 Data Only)
Cantlay +1.61
Hoge +1.51
Tosti +1.30
Fowler +1.13
Scheffler +0.99
RD4 Top Fades
(Rounds 1-3 Data)
Kisner -0.96
RD4 Top Fades
(Round 3 Data Only)
Young -2.33
Kisner -1.93
Malnati -1.68
Fitzpatrick -1.41
Bezuidenhout -1.40
For full access to all of my live betting picks for each round, check our PGA/Golf Premium Betting Package, which also includes all of our pre-tournament best bets and longshot picks for first round leader, outright winner and nationality/group props. You can save 50% by subscribing to our annual betting pass here.
Strokes Gained Ratings Key/Abbreviations
SG SCORE = Strokes Gained Score
BS = Ball Striking
OTT = Off The Tee
APP = Approach
PUTT = Putting
ARG = Around The Green
T2G = Tee To Green
Chris Dell is a lifelong sports journalist and news editor who has been published in The New York Times, New York Daily News, ESPN and Yahoo Sports, among other publications. He’s also the sports editor and sports betting/fantasy football columnist at the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Follow Chris on X @MaddJournalist.