By Chris Dell
To view the full spreadsheet of updated round-to-round data for our Strokes Gained Scores, click here
Primer/Intro: Using strokes gained statistics allows us to find strong edges after Round 1 of a given PGA tournament when we combine them with a little math. Using our "Strokes Gained Scores" putting regression formula, we are able to determine top buys and top fades for head-to-head matchup bets, DFS strategy and live betting opportunities from round to round as well. Depending on certain courses we might look at some metrics more than others, but most weekends the primary focus will be on strokes gained putting, strokes gained approach, strokes gained ball-striking and strokes gained tee-to-green.
The premise here is that strokes gained putting is wildly unpredictable and will vary from round to round, whereas strokes gained approach (and tee-to-green) is a much "stickier" statistic which better indicates the golfers who are/aren't playing well in the moment. Our "buy" golfers will be those with a strokes gained score of +1 or higher (rounded from 0.95), while our "fade" golfers will be those with a strokes gained rating of -1 or lower (rounded from -0.95). The goal for betting head-to-head matchups is to find two golfers whose SG GOLFER SCORES combine to equal +1 or higher. For example, Golfer A's SG GOLFER SCORE is +0.35 and Golfer B's SG SCORE -1.21. We substract +0.35 and -1.21 and our SG MATCHUP SCORE then equals +1.56. This is now a bet to make. I typically only bet these head-to-head matchups starting our "top fades" list and working down to all golfers who have a -0.45 or SG GOLFER SCORE or worse. In this case, we can find all instances where our SG MATCHUP SCORE can equal +0.95 or better.
Strokes Gained is broken down into four categories, and depending on a certain course/tournament, we will look to target certain stats specifically to determine out H2H, round to round matchup prop bets.
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
- Strokes Gained: Putting
- Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (which is Off-the-Tee + Approach)
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (which is Ball-Striking + Around-the-Green)
RD4 Top Buys
TOP BUYS - Round 3 Holes Only
Sungjae +1.54
Xander +1.33
Davis +1.14
Harman +1.11
Long +1.01
Conners +1.00
Rai +0.95
Sungjae +1.08
Xander +0.98
RD4 Top Fades
TOP FADES - Round 3 Holes Only
Hahn -2.18
Donald -2.15
Willett -1.37
English -1.33
Smotherman -1.25
Bezuidenhout -1.18
J. Suh -0.96
FADES - All Holes Played
Donald -1.24
J. Suh -1.02
Hahn -0.95
Current Tournament Betting Update (RDS 1-2)
Round 1: 10-1 (90.9%), +2.1775 units
Round 2: 27-14 (65.9%), +4.1475 units
Round 3: 7-9 (43.8%), -0.015 units
Overall: 44-24 (64.7%), +6.28 units
For full access to our PGA/Golf Premium Betting Package, which includes all of my pre-tournament best bets and live bets each weekend, you can save 50% by subscribing to our annual golf betting pass here
Strokes Gained Ratings Key/Abbreviations
Strokes Gained Putting
Strokes Gained Ball Striking
Strokes Gained Tee To Green
Strokes Gained Gained Net Rating - Ball Striking
Strokes Gained Net Rating - Tee To Green
SG SCORE = Strokes Gained Score
BS = Ball Striking
OTT = Off The Tee
APP = Approach
PUTT = Putting
ARG = Around The Green
T2G = Tee To Green
Chris Dell is a lifelong sports journalist and news editor who has written for The New York Times, New York Daily News and Yahoo Sports, among other publications. He’s also the fantasy football/player props director and co-founder of The Betting Predators. For more of Chris’ sports content, which includes NFL fantasy rankings, player prop analysis, golf betting, DFS strategy and more, visit www.bettingpredators.com